Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
6,490high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 6,490.
- Reaches 4,500>99%
- Reaches 4,750>99%
Already reached: ↑3.5k, ↑500, ↑1k, ↑2k, ↑3k, ↑4k
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Measles cases in U.S. by October 31?
The odds
4,808median
4,3005,000
Median 4,808Middle half 4,742 – 4,869
How the odds have moved
Median: 4,879 on Oct 20, 4,808 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ 3700+ | >99% | 100¢ | 100¢ | $376 | ||
| ✓ 3800+ | >99% | 100¢ | 100¢ | $105 | ||
| ✓ 3900+ | >99% | ▲ 2 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $1.2K | |
| ✓ 4000+ | >99% | ▲ 1 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $1.3K | |
| ✓ 4100+ | >99% | 100¢ | 100¢ | $211 | ||
| ✓ 4200+ | >99% | 100¢ | 100¢ | $1.5K | ||
| ✓ 4300+ | >99% | ▲ 3 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $3K | |
| 4500+ | >99% | 100¢ | 100¢ | $6.6K | ||
| 4700+ | 91% | ▼ 1 | 85¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | $4.8K |
| 4800+ | 53% | ▼ 1 | 51¢ | 56¢ | $1.79 | $6.7K |
| 4900+ | 13% | ▲ 1 | 12¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | $8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: measles
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U.S. measles cases more than double what they were last year as outbreak spreadsA sign is posted outside a Pennsylvania Department of Health measles vaccination clinic located in Lancaster County in Peach Bottom, Pa., Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2026. Matt Rourke/AP hide caption The U.S. is grappling with its worst resurgence… -
Paraguay Launches National Measles Vaccination CampaignParaguay has launched a nationwide vaccination campaign against measles. This campaign has the aim to strengthen protection and prevent the possible reintroduction of the disease. The initiative is led by the Ministry of Public Health and… -
Measles surge fuels Republican vaccine rift as Democrats press attacksAs measles cases climb, GOP candidates split over mandates while Democrats seize the messaging fight According to the Financial Times (FT) on the 25th (local time), the number of confirmed measles cases in the United States this year was… -
Measles Surge Exposes Republicans’ Vulnerability“A growing measles outbreak coupled with health secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr’s vaccine scepticism has emerged as a political problem for Republicans as November’s midterm elections approach,” the Financial Times reports. “Next month, the… -
Pennsylvania tells doctors to prepare for a surge in newborn measles cases—a complication unseen in decadesPennsylvania is warning doctors to get ready for something most of them have never seen: babies born with measles. As Ars Technica's Beth Mole reports, 2026 Credibility and Reputation Report Global Gene Editing Regulation Tracker GLP 2021… - Pa. measles vaccine messaging depends on word-of-mouth to reach the Amish communityThe so-called `Amish Internet’ is in high gear. Outside a Lancaster County fire station, an electronic billboard flashed an invitation to a forthcoming Halloween “trunk or treat,” a “thank you” to community donors, and the local time and…
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Measles: Death toll reaches 1,227 as 5 more children die in 24hrsSunday October 25, 2026 The health directorate recorded the deaths of five children with measles-like symptoms in the 24 hours preceding 8am today (25 October), taking Bangladesh's combined toll of confirmed and suspected measles-related… - Invivyd presents measles antibody candidate VMS063 data at IDWeek 2026Invivyd (IVVD) announced the presentation of preclinical data describing its novel, potential first- and best-in-class investigational monoclona... Invivyd presents measles antibody candidate VMS063 data at IDWeek 2026 Invivyd (IVVD)…
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8 more die of measles-like symptomsEight more patients died with measles-like symptoms across the country in the 24 hours till 8:00am yesterday. Copyright: Any unauthorized use or reproduction of The Daily Star content for commercial purposes Tarique Rahman's Japan visit… -
Invivyd Presents VMS063, a Potential Best-in-Class Monoclonal Antibody Candidate for the Treatment and Prevention of Measles, at IDWeek 2026VMS063 is a novel, potential first- and best-in-class monoclonal antibody investigational candidate discovered by Invivyd VMS063 demonstrated pote... Invivyd Presents VMS063, a Potential Best-in-Class Monoclonal Antibody Candidate for the… -
Additional 178 cases of measles reported by US health authorities amid outbreakCenters for Disease Control and Prevention reported 4,588 cases across the country, more than double the tally in 2025 Federal health authorities reported an additional 178 cases of measles in the US this week, as the vaccine-preventable… - CDC Reports 178 New Measles Cases as Outbreaks Spread NationwideThe CDC reported an additional 178 measles cases, bringing the national total to 4,588, with significant outbreaks in Pennsylvania and South Carolina. PENNSYLVANIA, Oct 25: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported 178…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions