Next pandemic
22%Before 2030
- Before 203022%
- Before 202917%
- Before 202810%▲ 2
Install
Pandemic in 2026?
The odds
3%chance▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Yes: 6% on Oct 20, 3% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 1.0M |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: outbreak, pandemic
Search ›-
Additional 178 cases of measles reported by US health authorities amid outbreakCenters for Disease Control and Prevention reported 4,588 cases across the country, more than double the tally in 2025 Federal health authorities reported an additional 178 cases of measles in the US this week, as the vaccine-preventable… -
The MV Hondius Hantavirus Outbreak—Lessons for Pandemic PreparednessPosted by cfelixcpa | May 26, 2026 | SF STAT! | 0 | The Andes hantavirus outbreak aboard the expedition vessel MV Hondius is likely to remain limited. Yet the fragmented international response reveals a deeper vulnerability in global… -
CDC sends disease detective to Pennsylvania to investigate measles outbreakCBS News Philadelphia is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KYW-TV and channel 3, CBS News Philadelphia offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. CDC sends… -
What to know about Ebola outbreak that has spread from Congo to multiple African countriesThe Washington Post The Ebola outbreak in Congo, which began in May, is spreading rapidly across Africa DAKAR, Senegal — The deadly Ebola outbreak that began in Congo in May is outpacing efforts to contain it, spreading to two other… -
Pandemic loans paid for spas, fine dining and an Aruba trip. An Atlanta man is now serving 10 years in prison.Updated on: October 22, 2026 / 11:49 AM EDT / CBS Atlanta An Atlanta man will spend more than ten years in federal prison for orchestrating a scheme to steal over $3 million in fraudulent pandemic loans. Prosecutors say 37-year-old Ian… -
Tomori urges investment in pandemic preparedness to avoid trillion-dollar lossesProf. Oyewale Tomori, a renowned virologist, has urged African governments to invest consistently in pandemic preparedness to avert the enormous human and economic losses associated with major disease outbreaks. Tomori made the call in a… -
Maryland man guilty in $18 million Medicare fraud case involving nursing homes during COVID-19 pandemicOctober 21, 2026 / 1:33 PM EDT / CBS Baltimore A Maryland man has been convicted by a federal jury of fraudulently billing Medicare for expensive respiratory tests for nursing home patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. The man found… -
Thousands of birds to be culled amid flu outbreakAbout 2,000 birds have died and thousands more are to be euthanised at a large poultry farm which has been impacted by bird flu. The Department for Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs (Defra) confirmed the disease was found at a… -
‘Godfather of the Pandemic:’ New book makes the case for prosecuting Anthony Fauciby WorldTribune Staff, October 24, 2026 — Real World News In his new book, “Why Fauci MUST Rot in Prison,” Senior White House adviser Peter Navarro is calling for Dr. Anthony Fauci to face criminal prosecution. Calling Fauci the “Godfather… -
Infectious Disease Outbreak Response PlaybookIf you’re dealing with an outbreak or if you even suspect one, this playbook is for you. Learn about risk factors, specific diseases, testing strategies, and steps involved in an outbreak response. Then, reach out for a consultation if you… -
Government and AI giants to set up ‘world first’ pandemic-prevention labThe announcement comes amid wider government efforts to harness AI Chancellor John Healey has announced a new “biosecurity lab”, which will use AI to help protect the UK against pandemics of the future, as part of a package of investment… -
Bunia: Ebola Outbreak in Congo #GalleryBunia: A clinical trial volunteer receives a dose of a vaccine against the Bundibugyo Ebola virus during the Tumaini clinical trial in Bunia, eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Oct. 23, 2026. (Photo: Xinhua... - Social News…
Related markets
All outbreaks ›Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
2%chance
Measles cases in U.S. by October 31?
4,811median
4,3005,000
Median 4,811Middle half 4,731 – 4,866
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
6,716high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 6,716.
- Reaches 4,500>99%
- Reaches 4,75098%
Already reached: ↑3.5k, ↑500, ↑1k, ↑2k, ↑3k, ↑4k
Plague pandemic in 2026?
2%chance
Measles cases in 2026?
6,778median
4,00011,000
Median 6,778Middle half 6,222 – 7,882
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions