Oscars 2027: Best Documentary Feature Film Winner

Polymarket Culture › Awards Closes Jun 30, 2027 · $145 today · $46.6K traded · $6.4K at stake · prices read 86 min ago

The odds

71%You Can See Everything

You Can See Everything71%
NAZA18%▲ 3
Nuisance Bear4%
American Doctor2%▼ 1
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party2%
One in a Million1%
Tutu1%
Musk1%
Once Upon a Time in Harlem1%

How the odds have moved

You Can See Everything: 72% on Oct 20, 71% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
You Can See Everything	71%		71¢	73¢	$1.37	$9.8K
NAZA	18%	▲ 3	17¢	19¢	$5.26	$4.3K
Nuisance Bear	4%		1¢	7¢	$14.93	$9.2K
American Doctor	2%	▼ 1	1¢	4¢	$25.64	$12.2K
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party	2%		0¢	3¢	$37.04	$198
One in a Million	1%		0¢	2¢	$41.67	$5.1K
Tutu	1%		0¢	2¢	$45.45	$850
Musk	1%		0¢	2¢	$52.63	$171
Once Upon a Time in Harlem	1%		0¢	1¢	$90.91	$4.8K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Kalshi

Oscar Winner: Best Documentary Feature Film (2027)You Can See EverythingKalshi 77%Polymarket 71%6 pts apart

Oscar Winner: Best Documentary Feature Film (2027)

77%You Can See Everything

You Can See Everything77%
NAZA20%▲ 2
Once Upon a Time in Harlem3%▼ 2
Musk1%▼ 1

7 more

American Doctor1%▼ 1
Nuisance Bear<1%
One in a Million<1%
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party<1%
Tutu<1%
Tie<1%
14th<1%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Documentary Feature Film

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The Surprise Guest in ‘You Can See Everything’ Could Win an Oscar. Should They?Variety · 3 days agoSPOILER ALERT: This article contains spoilers for “You Can See Everything,” now playing in theaters. The question that’s consumed the awards-pundit class since “You Can See Everything” exploded into theaters last week is whether Amanda…
‘You Can See Everything’ Eyes $20M Second Weekend as ‘Clayface’ Leads Box OfficeThe Hollywood Reporter · 3 days agoNewcomer 'Wildwood' will likely occupy third place for the frame that also sees the arrivals of 'Wicker' and 'Klara and the Sun.' Clayface rolls into the box office fray but faces competition from the second weekend of You Can See…
‘Clayface’ Soaks Up $3.5M in Box Office Previews as ‘You Can See Everything’ ExpandsThe Hollywood Reporter · 4 days ago'Wicker,' 'Wildwood' and 'Klara and the Sun' are among this weekend's arrivals. Clayface is rolling into theaters this weekend with an array of other new pre-Halloween titles as You Can See Everything expands after a much-discussed box…
Box Office: ‘Clayface’ Lands at No. 1 with $10.4 Million Debut, ‘You Can See Everything’ Adds $6.14 Million on FridayVariety · 3 days agoClayface might have been a considerably nicher choice for a feature film than DC’s “Supergirl” and “Superman,” but that didn’t stop audiences from showing out to catch the Batman supervillain’s gory, nightmare-inducing origin story at the…
‘Clayface’ Aims to Give DC Studios a Box Office Win as ‘You Can See Everything’ Stays StrongThe Hollywood Reporter · 4 days agoAlso debuting this weekend are 'Wildwood,' 'Klara and the Sun,' 'Wicker' and 'Ali G: Who Iz I?' Clayface looks to give the DC Studios team a reason for a happy face in its opening weekend at the box office, although it will encounter…
Elizabeth Holmes Claims New York Times Misquoted Her. The Reporter Speaks Out After ‘You Can See Everything’ Release: ‘I Wish I’d Kept That Notebook’Variety · 4 days agoIn the documentary “You Can See Everything,” Elizabeth Holmes tries to convince Nathan Fielder that she was misquoted by The New York Times. “They’re not playing me. They’re playing a character I created,” the disgraced Theranos founder is…
You Can See Everything, Except Outside North America: Inside A24’s Staggered International Release Strategy for Nathan Fielder’s Hit Elizabeth Holmes DocVariety · 4 days agoAs one producer jokingly put it in a message to Variety: “You Can See Everything, unless you live outside N. America.” Instead, the surprise screening turned out to be Peter Farrelly’s “I Play Rocky.” The delay raises a broader question…
In You Can See Everything, it’s Elizabeth Holmes’s partner who makes for 2026’s timeliest villainthe Guardian · 5 days agoNathan Fielder’s conversation-igniting film on the Theranos founder finds its darkest moments in her deceptive, Charlie Kirk-loving fiance Billy EvansSecrets, lies and a shock A-list cameo: how You Can See Everything became the film of the…
Will ‘You Can See Everything’ Beat DC’s ‘Clayface’ at the Box Office?Variety · 6 days ago"Clayface" might have unexpected competition from "You Can See Everything" for No. 1 on domestic box office charts. Will ‘You Can See Everything’ Beat DC’s ‘Clayface’ at the Box Office? Senior Film and Media Reporter Just a week ago…
Haven’t Seen Enough? The Books and Shows to Read and Watch After ‘You Can See Everything’Rolling Stone · 6 days agoYou Can See Everything, Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s quasi-documentary about Theranos founder and convicted fraudster Elizabeth Holmes, has become one of the buzziest movies of the year. The film follows Fielder’s intimate…
UK cinemas report ‘bonkers’ demand for documentary You Can See Everythingthe Guardian · 6 days agoTickets for film about Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes said to be selling out after $15m opening weekend in the US It is the film everyone seems to be talking about, spawning memes and fuelling feverish online debate about its subject…
AMC Stock: You Can See EverythingThe Motley Fool · 3 days agoMultiplex operators have to be clicking their heels this year. Yet another unlikely theatrical release is bringing audiences back to the silver screen, and AMC Entertainment (AMC -1.02%) is soaring again as the country's largest exhibitor…

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All awards ›

Culture › Awards

Oscar Winner: Best Picture (2027)

51%The Odyssey

The Odyssey51%▲ 3
You Can See Everything23%▼ 5
The Black Ball13%

38 more

Dune: Part Three7%▲ 2
Digger1%
Wild Horse Nine1%
Artificial1%
Project Hail Mary<1%
Disclosure Day<1%
Fjord<1%
The Social Reckoning<1%
Michael<1%
The Entertainment System Is Down<1%
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew<1%
Werwulf<1%
Behemoth<1%
Josephine<1%
Sense and Sensibility<1%
I Love Boosters<1%
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
Avengers: Doomsday<1%
The Death of Robin Hood<1%
The Drama<1%
Ink<1%
All of a Sudden<1%
Cry to Heaven<1%
Tie<1%
1949 / Fatherland<1%
Paper Tiger<1%
Hope<1%
Minotaur<1%
Parallel Tales<1%
Jack of Spades<1%
Obsession<1%
The Debut<1%
Elsinore<1%
The Invite<1%
Club Kid<1%
Being Heumann<1%
Primetime<1%
Tender Loving Care<1%

Culture › Awards

Oscar nominees: Best Picture (2027)

98%The Odyssey

The Odyssey98%
The Black Ball95%▼ 1
Wild Horse Nine90%▼ 1

50 more

Dune: Part Three85%▲ 3
You Can See Everything83%▲ 2
The Debut74%▲ 1
Project Hail Mary74%▼ 3
I Play Rocky66%▲ 8
The Invite64%▲ 2
Artificial54%▼ 1
All of a Sudden36%▲ 1
Fjord35%
Obsession32%▼ 1
Elsinore30%
Wildwood30%▲ 1
Digger23%
Club Kid20%▼ 5
Being Heumann19%▲ 1
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth18%▼ 3
Possible Love17%
Behemoth14%
Michael11%▼ 1
Primetime9%▼ 1
Josephine9%▲ 1
Ink8%▼ 1
Sense and Sensibility6%▼ 1
Saturn Return6%▲ 1
Paper Tiger5%▲ 1
Misty Green4%
The Drama4%
1949 / Fatherland4%
Minotaur4%
The Whisper Man4%
Disclosure Day3%
Werwulf3%
Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother3%▼ 3
Rose3%
The Uprising3%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day3%
Clarissa3%▼ 1
Avengers: Doomsday3%▼ 1
The Death of Robin Hood3%
Parallel Tales3%▼ 1
Backrooms3%
The Entertainment System Is Down2%
Cry to Heaven2%▼ 1
Hope2%
I Love Boosters2%
Jack of Spades2%
Tony2%
Bucking Fastard2%
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew1%▼ 1
The Social Reckoning1%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actor Nominations

92%Paul Giamatti

Paul Giamatti92%
Andrew Garfield78%▼ 1
Sam Rockwell77%▲ 6

23 more

Guitarricadelafuente67%▼ 5
John Leguizamo59%▼ 8
Edward Norton51%▼ 6
Robert Pattinson29%▼ 2
Colman Domingo19%▼ 5
Riz Ahmed18%▼ 1
Steve Buscemi18%
John Goodman13%▲ 1
Skyler Gisondo9%
Miles Teller7%▲ 1
Antonio Banderas7%
James Ortiz7%
Guy Pearce5%▼ 5
Adam Scott5%
Jeremy Strong5%▼ 12
Himesh Patel4%▼ 2
Michael Fassbender4%
Channing Tatum4%
Charles Melton4%▼ 1
Daniel Craig4%
Tom Holland4%
Jesse Plemons3%
Robert De Niro3%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations

91%Matt Damon

Matt Damon91%▼ 1
John Malkovich87%▲ 1
Andrew Scott85%▼ 1

16 more

Tom Cruise63%▲ 13
Anthony Ippolito49%▲ 1
John Turturro46%▲ 1
Ryan Gosling45%▼ 1
Robert Pattinson26%▼ 11
Sebastian Stan18%
Jaafar Jackson18%
Pedro Pascal16%▼ 1
Timothée Chalamet13%▲ 3
Sam Rockwell6%
Josh O'Connor5%
Adam Driver5%▲ 1
Javier Bardem4%
Brad Pitt4%
Robert Aramayo3%
Jeremy Strong2%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Sound Nominations

96%Project Hail Mary

Project Hail Mary96%▼ 2
The Odyssey88%▲ 10
Dune: Part Three88%▲ 18

11 more

Werwulf50%▲ 9
The Black Ball40%▼ 16
The Mosquito Bowl35%▲ 3
Whalefall34%
Behemoth!29%▲ 1
Godzilla Minus Zero26%▲ 2
The End of Oak Street24%▲ 14
Michael23%▼ 2
Disclosure Day14%▼ 1
Digger12%▲ 5
The Debut7%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Production Design Nominations

96%The Black Ball

The Black Ball96%
The Odyssey86%▲ 1
Digger70%▲ 14

8 more

Project Hail Mary68%▲ 1
Dune: Part Three62%▼ 2
Sense and Sensibility51%▲ 26
Werwulf48%▲ 3
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth42%▲ 22
Wuthering Heights20%
Backrooms18%
Wildwood4%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesJun 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$46.6K

Today$145

This week$4.3K

At stake$6.4K

In the news21 headlines today, 273 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nomin

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions