Next leader out of power before 2027?

Polymarket World Closes Dec 31 · $206K today · $1.8M traded · $73.8K at stake · prices read 5 min ago

The odds

45%None before 2027
  • None before 202745%▼ 6
  • Netanyahu - Israel PM35%▲ 6
  • Sánchez - Spanish PM4%
  • Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President3%▲ 2
  • Xi - General Secretary of the CCP2%▼ 1
  • Lecornu - France PM2%
  • Merz - German Chancellor2%
  • Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea1%▲ 1
  • Abbas - President of Palestine1%▼ 1
  • Macron - France President1%
  • Trump - USA President1%
  • Zelenskyy - Ukraine President1%
10 more
  • Lula da Silva - Brazil President1%
  • Díaz-Canel - Cuba President1%
  • Putin - Russia President<1%
  • Erdoğan - Türkiye President<1%
  • Takaichi - Japan PM<1%
  • Albanese - Australia PM<1%
  • al-Sharaa - Syria President<1%
  • Newsom - California Governor<1%
  • Milei - Argentina President<1%
  • Sheinbaum - Mexico President<1%

How the odds have moved

None before 2027: 47% on Oct 20, 45% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
None before 2027 45% ▼ 6 44¢ 45¢ $2.22 $285K
Netanyahu - Israel PM 35% ▲ 6 34¢ 36¢ $2.78 $434K
Sánchez - Spanish PM 4% 3¢ 4¢ $23.26 $67.3K
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President 3% ▲ 2 1¢ 5¢ $20.83 $55.9K
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP 2% ▼ 1 2¢ 3¢ $38.46 $71.5K
Lecornu - France PM 2% 2¢ 2¢ $45.45 $48.1K
Merz - German Chancellor 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 $58.8K
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea 1% ▲ 1 1¢ 2¢ $62.50 $82.5K
Abbas - President of Palestine 1% ▼ 1 1¢ 1¢ $90.91 $48.9K
Macron - France President 1% 1¢ 1¢ $60.6K
Trump - USA President 1% 1¢ 1¢ $53.5K
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 1% 1¢ 1¢ $53.4K
Lula da Silva - Brazil President 1% 1¢ 1¢ $63.8K
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 1% 1¢ 1¢ $53.1K
Putin - Russia President <1% 0¢ 0¢ $49.2K
Erdoğan - Türkiye President <1% 0¢ 0¢ $55.3K
Takaichi - Japan PM <1% 0¢ 0¢ $48.5K
Albanese - Australia PM <1% 0¢ 0¢ $55.6K
al-Sharaa - Syria President <1% 0¢ 0¢ $41.9K
Newsom - California Governor <1% 0¢ 0¢ $45.8K
Milei - Argentina President <1% 0¢ 0¢ $54.1K
Sheinbaum - Mexico President <1% 0¢ 0¢ $45.6K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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  • Benjamin Netanyahu28%▲ 1
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  • Yossi Cohen<1%
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PolymarketCloses today 11:59 PM ET · $3.5M today

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