New Hampshire Senate Election Winner

Polymarket Elections › Senate Closes Nov 3 · $16K today · $447K traded · $155K at stake · prices read 12 min ago

The odds

92%Chris Pappas (D)

Chris Pappas (D)92%
John E. Sununu (R)9%

How the odds have moved

Chris Pappas (D): 89% on Oct 20, 92% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Chris Pappas (D)	92%		91¢	92¢	$1.09	$234K
John E. Sununu (R)	9%		8¢	9¢	$11.11	$213K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Kalshi

New Hampshire Senate winner? (2026)Chris Pappas (D)Kalshi 90%Polymarket 92%2 pts apart

New Hampshire Senate winner? (2026)

90%Chris Pappas

Chris Pappas90%
John E. Sununu11%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: New Hampshire Senate

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Midterm polls paint grim picture for Trump, Senate race remains too close to callTelangana Today · 12 h agoWith a week left before the US midterm elections, polls indicate a difficult road ahead for President Donald Trump and the Republican Party amid voter concerns over inflation, tariffs and the Iran conflict. Most poll analysts project…
Election 2026: New Hampshire GovernorRasmussen_Poll · 46 h agoNew Hampshire’s Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte appears poised for reelection with a double-digit lead over Democratic challenger Cinde Warmington. A former state Attorney General who previously served one term in the U.S. Senate before being…
Facing no contest in re-election bid, Concord Sen. Reardon looks to housing, child careConcord Monitor · 48 h agoState Sen. Tara Reardon, a Concord Democrat, is sailing toward reelection to the New Hampshire Senate. She was unopposed in the Democratic primary, and her Republican opponent is not mounting a campaign. Reardon is a well-known Concord…
Kelly Ayotte endorsed in GOP gubernatorial primary by union for N.H. state employeesBostonGlobe.com · 3 days agoCONCORD, N.H. — The State Employees’ Association, a labor union that represents more than 10,000 workers across New Hampshire, endorsed former US senator Kelly Ayotte on Wednesday in the state’s GOP primary for governor. The group’s…
Cinde Warmington releases second TV ad in N.H. governor’s raceBostonGlobe.com · 3 days agoDemocratic gubernatorial candidate Cinde Warmington is doubling down on television advertising to make her pitch to Granite Staters. Her campaign released its second TV ad on Monday. It alludes to the challenges she encountered growing up…
Union endorses Democrat Cinde Warmington, also eyes GOP race for N.H. governorBostonGlobe.com · 3 days agoA labor union that represents more than 10,000 workers across New Hampshire pledged its support Thursday for Cinde Warmington in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, showing that her top rival doesn’t have a monopoly on organized labor…
Joyce Craig wins organized labor endorsements in race for N.H. governorBostonGlobe.com · 3 days agoWith two contested primaries in full swing, one gubernatorial candidate won the support Tuesday of the New Hampshire AFL-CIO, solidifying her status as organized labor’s favorite in the race. Democratic candidate Joyce Craig, the former…
Recommended StoriesWashington Examiner · 5 days agoWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a…
ANCA Post-Election Townhall to Map Out Armenian American Agenda for the New Congress@anca_dc · 5 days agoWASHINGTON, DC – Fresh off the November 3rd midterm elections, the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA) will host a nationwide online townhall meeting bringing together Armenian Americans to review our impact at the ballot box and…
Supreme Court blocks student IDs for voting in NH, aiding GOP in 2026 Senate raceCrypto Briefing · 5 days agoEstefano Gomez is an editor at Crypto Briefing specializing in blockchain analysis, DeFi, and the intersection of crypto and digital art. He previously served as Editor in Chief at Interesante for over three years, where he covered…
Pappas Eyes History In Tight New Hampshire Senate Fightenmnews.com · 5 days agoChris Pappas is on track to put New Hampshire at the center of a possible Senate milestone. If elected, the Democratic nominee would become the first openly gay man to serve in the chamber. For Pappas, though, that distinction is not the…
The Sununu Dynasty Faces Biggest Test in New Hampshire Senate RaceNewsweek · 6 days agoOct 21, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT Oct 21, 2026 at 07:04 AM EDT New Hampshire’s Senate race will test the power of the Sununu name as former Senator John Sununu hopes to boost Republicans in midterm elections that will likely prove complicated…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesNov 3, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$447K

Today$16K

This week$32K

At stake$155K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their re

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions