Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

Polymarket World › Middle East Closes Dec 31 · $12.9K today · $8.6M traded · $62.2K at stake · prices read 20 min ago

The odds

33%December 31, 2027
  • March 31, 202713%
  • June 30, 202713%
  • December 3113%
  • December 31, 202733%▲ 1

How the odds have moved

March 31, 2027: 13% on Oct 20, 13% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
March 31, 2027 13% 13¢ 14¢ $7.14 $3K
April 30 <1% 0¢ $75K
May 31 <1% 0¢ $1.5M
June 30 <1% 0¢ $3.5M
June 30, 2027 13% 20¢ 21¢ $4.76 $8.1K
July 31 <1% 0¢ $2.2M
August 31 <1% 0¢ $669K
September 30 <1% 0¢ $295K
December 31 13% 4¢ 4¢ $27.03 $277K
December 31, 2027 33% ▲ 1 32¢ 34¢ $2.94 $64.9K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Israel, Gaza, Netanyahu

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Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

53%Gadi Eizenkot
  • Gadi Eizenkot53%▼ 1
  • Benjamin Netanyahu27%▲ 2
  • Naftali Bennett10%▼ 3
16 more
  • Avigdor Lieberman2%
  • Israel Katz<1%
  • Yossi Cohen<1%
  • Moshe Feiglin<1%
  • Amir Ohana<1%
  • Yair Lapid<1%
  • Benny Gantz<1%
  • Itamar Ben Gvir<1%
  • Gideon Sa’ar<1%
  • Yariv Levin<1%
  • Ayelet Shaked<1%
  • Yoaz Hendel<1%
  • Nir Barkat<1%
  • Gilad Erdan<1%
  • Ofer Winter<1%
  • Yair Golan<1%
PolymarketCloses today 11:59 PM ET · $3.5M today

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions