US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
65%October 22
- October 2265%
- October 2465%▲ 1
- October 2865%▲ 2
6 more
- October 3165%▲ 4
- November 865%▲ 1
- November 1565%▲ 1
- November 2265%▼ 1
- November 3065%
- December 3165%▼ 1
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Erdoğan out by...?
The odds
31%December 31, 2027
- December 31, 20264%
- December 31, 202731%▲ 10
How the odds have moved
December 31, 2026: 4% on Oct 20, 4% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 4% | 4¢ | 4¢ | $26.32 | $65K | |
| December 31, 2027 | 31% | ▲ 10 | 12¢ | 49¢ | $2.04 | $234 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Erdoğan
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Izmir mayor calls Erdoğan one of Türkiye's strongest political figuresIzmir Metropolitan Mayor Cemil Tugay praised President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as one of Türkiye's most influential political figures, highlighting his leadership and contributions to the country while explaining the circumstances behind his… -
President Erdoğan hosts foreign ministers after R4+E3 talksPresident Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Friday received top diplomats from six European and regional countries following the R4+E3 foreign ministers' talks in Türkiye, as diplomatic effo... President Erdoğan hosts foreign ministers after R4+E3… -
WATCH: Trump Warns New Iran Strikes After Carney-Erdogan Meeting; Turkey AlarmedDonald Trump has revived fears of another major U.S. military strike on Iran just after Mark Carney and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan used their Ankara meeting to stress dialogue, stability and a broader Canada-Türkiye strategic partnership.Trump… -
Prime Minister Carney meets with President of Türkiye Recep Tayyip ErdoğanToday, the Prime Minister, Mark Carney, met with the President of Türkiye, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, during the first bilateral visit to Türkiye by a Canadian Prime Minister. The leaders reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening cooperation… -
Two Decades in Office, Erdogan’s AKP Comes Full CircleWashington Report on Middle East Affairs, March/April 2022, pp. 50-51 AFTER MONTHS of financial turmoil and the collapse of the ruling coalition government—by then beset by allegations of corruption and cronyism—there was once a time when… -
Former Erdoğan adviser detained in Türkiye over alleged investment fund fraudFormer Turkish lawmaker Ertan Aydın, who served as an adviser to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan during his tenure as prime minister, has been detained in Türkiye as part of a large-scale investigation into alleged irregularities involving investment… -
Erdoğan invites Aliyev to Ankara summit amid tensionsTurkey egg donor network catered to demand for blond babies: report Jailed İstanbul mayor urges public to support independent media amid crackdown Turkey issues cyber warning as website flaws spark global alarm Former Erdoğan aide among 5… -
TRT World - Erdogan pledges continued diplomacy at 9th Istanbul Mediation ConferenceTurkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said Türkiye will continue its diplomatic and mediation efforts to help resolve conflicts, warning that declining trust in international institutions is deepening global instability. In a video… -
Türkiye, Canada agree to launch free trade talks: ErdoğanTürkiye and Canada have agreed to launch negotiations on a free trade agreement before the end of the year, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said Thursday at a joint news conference... Türkiye, Canada agree to launch free trade talks… -
Erdoğan welcomes Carney as Türkiye, Canada boost co-opCanadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's two-day visit to Türkiye officially began on Thursday. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan gave a warm welcome to the premier at the Presidential Complex as the two men eye starting a new chapter between… -
Statement by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Prime Minister Mark Carneyİletişim Başkanlığı Statement by President Recep Tayyip ErdoÄan and Prime Minister Mark Carney His Excellency Recep Tayyip ErdoÄan, President of the Republic of Türkiye and the Right Honourable Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions