Oscars 2027: Best Casting Nominations

Polymarket Culture › Awards Closes Mar 14, 2027 · $2.5K today · $23.7K traded · $3.8K at stake · prices read 3 min ago

The odds

82%The Black Ball

The Black Ball82%
The Odyssey82%
Wild Horse Nine73%▼ 9
The Debut56%▼ 1
Being Heumann44%▼ 1
Obsession36%▲ 1
Dune: Part Three33%▲ 3
The Invite29%▲ 1
Fjord26%
All of a Sudden26%▲ 2
Michael17%▼ 2
Project Hail Mary17%▼ 2

5 more

Digger7%▼ 3
Saturn Return7%▲ 1
Cry to Heaven6%▼ 1
UNABOMBER3%
Clarissa2%

How the odds have moved

The Black Ball: 84% on Oct 20, 82% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
The Black Ball	82%		81¢	83¢	$1.20	$2.7K
The Odyssey	82%		79¢	84¢	$1.19	$3.8K
Wild Horse Nine	73%	▼ 9	70¢	76¢	$1.32	$676
The Debut	56%	▼ 1	55¢	58¢	$1.72	$2.5K
Being Heumann	44%	▼ 1	33¢	55¢	$1.82	$479
Obsession	36%	▲ 1	34¢	38¢	$2.63	$310
Dune: Part Three	33%	▲ 3	18¢	47¢	$2.13	$2K
The Invite	29%	▲ 1	28¢	30¢	$3.33	$2.7K
Fjord	26%		25¢	27¢	$3.70	$580
All of a Sudden	26%	▲ 2	23¢	29¢	$3.45	$2.7K
Michael	17%	▼ 2	16¢	18¢	$5.56	$624
Project Hail Mary	17%	▼ 2	14¢	19¢	$5.26	$1.1K
Digger	7%	▼ 3	6¢	8¢	$12.50	$972
Saturn Return	7%	▲ 1	6¢	7¢	$14.29	$476
Cry to Heaven	6%	▼ 1	5¢	7¢	$13.89	$1.4K
UNABOMBER	3%		1¢	5¢	$20.41	$394
Clarissa	2%		1¢	3¢	$29.41	$388

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Casting Nominations

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This Is the Only Horror Movie to Ever Win Best Picture at the Academy Awardsvice · 11 h agoComing to you from around the world, VICE Digital’s team strives to capture the people at the heart of stories, and focus on the ideas, issues, and context that other outlets miss. Get unlimited access to everything VICE has to offer…
WWE's Drew McIntyre Teases On-Screen Partnership With Academy Award Winning ActorWrestling Inc. · 19 h agoFormer World Heavyweight and Undisputed Champion Drew McIntyre says this renowned actor wants to join forces with him in the WWE. WWE's Drew McIntyre Teases On-Screen Partnership With Academy Award Winning Actor Once he comes back, WWE…
Film Screening of the 2026 Lithuanian submission for the Academy Awards – How to Divorce During the WarStanford University · 35 h agoStanford University Film Screening of the 2026 Lithuanian submission for the Academy Awards – How to Divorce During the War Join us for a film screening of Lithuania's submission for the Academy Awards with commentary from Maarja…
Neon joins the Guardian, MK2 on Academy Award-winning directors Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor’s NAZAthe Guardian · 4 days agoDocumentary, produced by James Wilson and executive-produced by Jonathan Glazer, premiered in Venice and won the special jury prize The Guardian’s head of investigations, Paul Lewis, and global head of multimedia, Nicole Jackson, said…
Clayface Just Broke a Comic Book Movie Record & Beat An Academy Award WinnerComicBook.com · 4 days ago(Sr. Writer/Editor) Kofi Outlaw has a B.A. in writing and film studies. He then earned a Master’s Degree in creative writing from The New School in NYC, where he became editor of Screenrant.com when it was just a hobby blog. Kofi…
Medical Academy Awards N10m Gold Medal to Cardiologist Ogah, inducts 13 fellowsChampion of the Truth. · 4 days agoThe Academy of Medical Sciences of Nigeria has announced a N10 million Gold Medal Award for Professor Okechukwu Samuel Ogah, a cardiologist recognised for his contributions to cardiovascular research, medical education and healthcare in…
'You Can See Everything' Oscar odds double to 32% after first week in theatersKalshi News · 39 h agoThe documentary overtook 'The Black Ball' in Kalshi's 'Best Picture' market after overwhelming critical acclaim. Nathan Fielder's experimental documentaryYou Can See Everything, following disgraced Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes's final…
Red Sea Film Foundation expands global reach with record Oscar-season slateBroadcastPro ME · 27 h agoThe shortlist for Best International Feature Film will be announced on December 15, 2026, with nominations on January 21, 2027. The Red Sea Film Foundation has achieved a record presence in the race for the Best International Feature Film…
Oscar winner Melissa Leo to perform in KingstonDaily Freeman · 40 h agoKINGSTON, N.Y. — Academy Award winner Melissa Leo, a part-time Ulster County resident, will take the stage at the Arts Society of Kingston for a stage reading of “night, Mother,” Marsha Norman’s Pulitzer Prize–winning drama, on Saturday…
From ‘Hoop Dreams’ to ‘Flee’: The 20 Documentaries That Deserved a Best Picture Oscar NominationVariety · 13 h agoIn nearly a century of Oscars, not a single documentary has been nominated for best picture. But that shouldn’t be the case. To celebrate this potential historic nomination, Variety is ranking the 20 films that should have received a best…
The Surprise Guest in ‘You Can See Everything’ Could Win an Oscar. Should They?Variety · 44 h agoSPOILER ALERT: This article contains spoilers for “You Can See Everything,” now playing in theaters. The question that’s consumed the awards-pundit class since “You Can See Everything” exploded into theaters last week is whether Amanda…
Pakistani short film ‘The Last Glance’ qualifies for Oscars longlist24 News HD · 2 days agoPakistani filmmaker Kamran Faiq has achieved an international milestone as his short film The Last Glance qualifies for the 2028 Academy Awards longlist after winning the Jury Award for Best Short at the 21st Tasveer Film Festival in…

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All awards ›

Culture › Awards

Oscar Winner: Best Picture (2027)

48%The Odyssey

The Odyssey48%▲ 4
You Can See Everything28%
The Black Ball13%

38 more

Dune: Part Three5%▼ 1
Digger1%
Wild Horse Nine1%
Artificial1%
Project Hail Mary<1%
Disclosure Day<1%
Fjord<1%
The Social Reckoning<1%
Michael<1%
The Entertainment System Is Down<1%
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew<1%
Werwulf<1%
Behemoth<1%
Josephine<1%
Sense and Sensibility<1%
I Love Boosters<1%
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
Avengers: Doomsday<1%
The Death of Robin Hood<1%
The Drama<1%
Ink<1%
All of a Sudden<1%
Cry to Heaven<1%
Tie<1%
1949 / Fatherland<1%
Paper Tiger<1%
Hope<1%
Minotaur<1%
Parallel Tales<1%
Jack of Spades<1%
Obsession<1%
The Debut<1%
Elsinore<1%
The Invite<1%
Club Kid<1%
Being Heumann<1%
Primetime<1%
Tender Loving Care<1%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations

98%The Odyssey

The Odyssey98%
La Bola Negra96%
Wild Horse Nine91%

19 more

Dune: Part Three88%▼ 1
Project Hail Mary77%
The Debut76%▼ 1
You Can See Everything76%▼ 1
The Invite62%▲ 2
I Play Rocky56%▼ 7
All of a Sudden38%▲ 2
Elsinore37%▲ 16
Fjord37%▲ 3
Obsession31%▼ 1
The Adventures of Cliff Booth22%▼ 1
Digger19%
Behemoth!15%▼ 4
Michael13%▲ 2
Avengers: Doomsday7%▲ 1
Disclosure Day5%
Fatherland5%
The Drama3%
The Social Reckoning2%

Culture › Awards

Oscar nominees: Best Documentary Feature Film (2027)

85%NAZA

NAZA85%
You Can See Everything81%▼ 6
Once Upon a Time in Harlem67%▲ 5

7 more

American Doctor63%
14th38%▼ 1
Nuisance Bear38%▲ 6
One in a Million31%▼ 1
Musk29%▲ 3
Tutu23%▼ 1
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party20%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Cinematography Nominations

94%The Odyssey

The Odyssey94%▼ 1
Dune: Part Three72%▼ 3
Project Hail Mary65%▲ 3

6 more

Fatherland41%▼ 4
Digger38%▲ 10
Werwulf37%▼ 8
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth15%
Obsession14%▼ 4
Josephine8%▼ 2

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Winner

53%La Nieve - The Black Ball

La Nieve - The Black Ball53%▲ 6
This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn't Spit Me Out) - The Debut26%▲ 12
I Knew It, I Knew You - Toy Story 513%▼ 2

8 more

Let Me Sell You a Dream - Musk5%▼ 2
Runway - The Devil Wears Prada 21%▲ 1
Your God is Sleeping - Behemoth!1%
By Any Means - By Any Means<1%
When I'm Home - The Odyssey<1%
Too Much to Ask - Ray Gunn<1%
How to Write a Song About You - Power Ballad<1%
Chains of Love - Wuthering Heights<1%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best International Feature Film Nominations

98%All of a Sudden

All of a Sudden98%
The Black Ball97%▲ 1
Fjord88%▲ 1

6 more

Possible Love70%▼ 16
Minotaur50%▼ 5
Rose39%▼ 6
Fatherland35%▼ 8
The Dreamed Adventure15%▲ 2
Coward14%▲ 1

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesMar 14, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$23.7K

Today$2.5K

This week$9.3K

At stake$3.8K

In the news13 headlines today, 310 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Casting. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Casting when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions