USS Theodore Roosevelt arrives in CENTCOM by...?

Polymarket World › Middle East Closes Nov 30 · $496 today · $28K traded · $6.8K at stake · prices read 2 min ago

The odds

Nov 12, 2026even chance by

October 314%▲ 1
November 34%▼ 5
November 78%▼ 3
November 1252%▼ 1
November 1567%▼ 7
November 3095%

How the odds have moved

November 3: 17% on Oct 20, 4% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 20, 11 PM ETNovember 3: 17% → 10%
- USS Theodore Roosevelt Aircraft MaintenanceDVIDS · 7 days ago
- USS Theodore Roosevelt heads to Middle East amid Iran tensionsThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 7 days ago
- Pentagon deploys USS Theodore Roosevelt to Middle East — Jerusalem PostUA.NEWS · 6 days ago

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
October 31	4%	▲ 1	1¢	6¢	$16.39	$10.1K
November 3	4%	▼ 5	1¢	7¢	$14.93	$1.6K
November 7	8%	▼ 3	7¢	9¢	$11.11	$6.7K
November 12	52%	▼ 1	50¢	53¢	$1.89	$2.2K
November 15	67%	▼ 7	63¢	71¢	$1.41	$4.9K
November 30	95%		94¢	96¢	$1.04	$2.6K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: USS Theodore Roosevelt, CENTCOM

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Pentagon deploys USS Theodore Roosevelt, Marines to West Asia amid Iran tensions: ReportMoneycontrol · 6 days agoThe United States is deploying the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group and the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) to West Asia, as Washington prepares for a possible escalation of hostilities with Iran, Fox News reported on…
Pentagon deploys USS Theodore Roosevelt strike group, Marines to West Asia: Report@firstpost · 6 days agoThe Pentagon is sending the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group and the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit to West Asia, with the carrier due by the end of November, as Trump reportedly weighs stepping up strikes on Iran after the…
USS Theodore Roosevelt Aircraft MaintenanceDVIDS · 7 days agoU.S. Navy Aviation Electronics Technician 2nd Class Johnny Casiano, assigned to Electronic Attack Squadron (VAQ) 137, conducts maintenance on an E/A-18G Growler, in the hangar bay of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt…
War prep in full swing? USS Theodore Roosevelt to arrive in Middle East by November end@theweek · 6 days agoUS aircraft carrier Middle East deployment plans are expanding as the Pentagon sends the USS Theodore Roosevelt strike group and over 10,000 military personnel to the region The US is deploying a third aircraft carrier strike group, the…
Pentagon deploys USS Theodore Roosevelt to Middle East — Jerusalem PostUA.NEWS · 6 days agoThe US Pentagon is deploying the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group and the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit to the Middle East. Two US officials confirmed this to Fox News, the Jerusalem Post reports. According to Fox News, the…
Chinese carrier and US strike group operate at same time in western Pacific watersInteresting Engineering · 44 h agoThe Chinese carrier’s deployment overlaps with a multinational exercise involving the USS Theodore Roosevelt and allied warships from Japan, Australia, Canada and France. China’s aircraft carrier Liaoning and its accompanying warships are…
US missiles strike sea target in coordinated attack during Keen Sword exerciseStars and Stripes · 29 h agoAn F/A-18E Super Hornet launches from the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt during Keen Sword drills near Japan, Oct. 20, 2026. (Kellie Given/U.S. Navy) By ALEX WILSON STARS AND STRIPES Published 2 hours ago · Missiles fired from…
Below the Flight Deck: Engineering Sailors Keep Theodore Roosevelt Mission-ReadyDVIDS · 36 h agoLaunching and recovering aircraft across thousands of miles of open ocean requires more than pilots and flight deck crews. Within the hull of the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71), the ship’s Engineering…
USS Theodore Roosevelt heads to Middle East amid Iran tensionsThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 7 days agoThe Pentagon is sending the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group and the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit to the Middle East, two US officials confirmed to Fox News on Tuesday. This follows a US official telling The Jerusalem Post on…
Iran targets US officials in Middle East, other regionsDaily Post Nigeria · 3 days agoIran is reportedly significantly increasing efforts to assassinate American diplomats and officials in the Middle East and other regions. The machinations have reached "advanced stages," according to Axios, which cited a United States…
USS Theodore Roosevelt Sailors Tour Mt. FujiDVIDS · 8 days agoU.S. Navy Sailors, assigned to Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71), pose for a group photo during a Moral, Welfare and Recreation tour to Mt. Fuji, Japan, Oct. 17, 2026. Theodore Roosevelt, flagship of Carrier…
US, allied warships gather in PH for Keen Sword 27 drillsmanilastandard.net · 3 days agoThe aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and warships from Japan, Australia, Canada and France have gathered in the Philippine Sea for the 10-day Keen ...

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesNov 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$28K

Today$496

This week$5.1K

At stake$6.8K

In the news2 headlines today, 29 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) enters the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The Roosevelt will be considered to have entered the CENTCOM area of responsibility upon confirmation by the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, or U.S. Indo-Pacific Command that the ship has entered the CENTCOM area of responsibility or the U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations, or upon a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the ship has physically entered the CENTCOM area of responsibility. The arrival must occur by the listed deadline. In

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions