EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026?

Polymarket World › Middle East Closes Dec 31 · $43.8K traded · $9.5K at stake · prices read 65 min ago

The odds

32.72Mmedian

29.00M38.00M

Median 32.72MMiddle half 30.50M – 34.38M

How the odds have moved

Median: 32.83M on Oct 20, 32.72M now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
30M+	76%	▼ 1	74¢	78¢	$1.28	$6.6K
31M+	74%		70¢	78¢	$1.28	$4.7K
32M+	67%	▼ 3	55¢	79¢	$1.27	$4.4K
33M+	44%	▼ 1	39¢	48¢	$2.08	$6.6K
34M+	36%		28¢	44¢	$2.27	$6.5K
35M+	7%		4¢	10¢	$10.00	$10.2K
36M+	6%		1¢	11¢	$9.09	$1.6K
37M+	2%		1¢	4¢	$27.78	$3.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Settles onec.europa.eu

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$43.8K

This week$223

At stake$9.5K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

On October 1, 2026, Reuters reported that the United States had told France and Germany to release emergency diesel stocks or face a potential US diesel export ban, as Washington presses European countries to draw down their reserves to ease surging diesel prices. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-tells-france-germany-release-diesel-stocks-or-face-us-export-ban-sources-say-2026-10-01/ This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eurostat publishes a figure for the European Union’s closing stock of EU emergency stocks of gas oil and diesel oil for the month of December 2026 that is greater than or equal to the specified value. Otherwise, this market will r

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions