Israel military action against Lebanon on...?

Polymarket World › Middle East Closes Sat 11:59 PM ET · $5.4K today · $176K traded · $12.5K at stake · prices read 23 min ago

The odds

Oct 12, 2026even chance by

October 612%▼ 1
October 1894%
October 1994%▲ 19
October 2094%▲ 13
October 2194%▲ 6
October 2294%▲ 8
October 2394%▲ 8
October 2494%▲ 10
October 2594%
October 2694%▲ 7
October 2794%▼ 13
October 2894%

3 more

October 2994%▼ 2
October 3094%▼ 2
October 3194%▲ 3

How the odds have moved

October 18: 85% on Oct 20, 94% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
✓ October 2	>99%	▲ 2	100¢	100¢		$3.8K
✓ October 3	>99%	▲ 6	100¢	100¢		$1.4K
✓ October 4	>99%	▲ 4	95¢	100¢		$10.7K
✓ October 5	>99%		78¢	100¢		$8.9K
October 6	12%	▼ 1	8¢	16¢	$6.25	$7.2K
✓ October 7	>99%	▲ 1	100¢	100¢		$3K
✓ October 8	>99%	▲ 2	100¢	100¢		$3.8K
✓ October 9	>99%	▲ 1	100¢	100¢		$2K
✓ October 10	>99%	▲ 5	95¢	100¢		$1.7K
✓ October 11	>99%	▲ 10	98¢	100¢		$3K
✓ October 12	>99%	▲ 7	100¢	100¢		$1.9K
✓ October 13	>99%	▲ 11	100¢	100¢		$1.5K
✓ October 14	>99%	▲ 4	94¢	100¢		$3.2K
✓ October 15	>99%	▲ 8	100¢	100¢		$75.4K
✓ October 16	>99%	▲ 11	99¢	100¢		$1.6K
✓ October 17	>99%	▲ 9	98¢	100¢		$3.3K
October 18	94%		91¢	99¢	$1.01	$1.2K
October 19	94%	▲ 19	99¢	100¢		$9K
October 20	94%	▲ 13	100¢	100¢		$3K
October 21	94%	▲ 6	98¢	100¢		$1.1K
October 22	94%	▲ 8	97¢	100¢		$2.8K
October 23	94%	▲ 8	99¢	100¢		$2K
October 24	94%	▲ 10	96¢	100¢		$2.3K
October 25	94%		90¢	98¢	$1.02	$3K
October 26	94%	▲ 7	95¢	100¢		$3.6K
October 27	94%	▼ 13	70¢	98¢	$1.02	$4.2K
October 28	94%		93¢	99¢	$1.01	$2.8K
October 29	94%	▼ 2	68¢	89¢	$1.12	$2.9K
October 30	94%	▼ 2	90¢	91¢	$1.10	$1.7K
October 31	94%	▲ 3	86¢	91¢	$1.10	$3.7K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Israel, Gaza, Netanyahu

Search ›

Will Benjamin Netanyahu Win Israel Election? What Polls ShowNewsweek · 26 h agoOct 26, 2026 at 07:50 AM EDT Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will struggle to retain power, according to latest polling ahead of his first electoral test since the October 2023 Hamas-led attacks and the subsequent conflicts in…
Israel's Central Bank Rebukes Netanyahu Plan to Use Crypto to Dodge SanctionsDecrypt · 26 h agoIsrael's central bank has rejected Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's suggestion that cryptocurrency could help the country get around potential international sanctions, in a rare public rebuke days before Tuesday's national election…
What to know about the Israeli elections as Netanyahu faces a battle for survivalNBC News · 27 h agoMorning Rundown: Israel’s first election since Oct. 7 attacks, key midterm ballot measures to watch, and Chris Brown sentenced over London nightclub brawl TEL AVIV — After three years of navigating war, crisis and global outcry, Israeli…
Israelis set to decide whether Netanyahu still deserves to lead after Oct. 7 attacksNew York Post · 29 h agoTEL AVIV — Should Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu be punished for the Oct. 7, 2023 terrorist attack — or is he, in fact, the strongest person to protect the Jewish state during its multi-front war? That is perhaps the central issue when…
Israel’s furious Arab parties could oust Netanyahu — if the opposition will break an election promiseNew York Post · 27 h agoIsraeli-Arabs could sway the balance of power in Israel’s general elections next week as the country’s two major parties are predicted to fall short of a majority in the Knesset. Nearly all of Israel’s polls ahead of Tuesday’s election…
Anti-Israel agitators smash signs of Seinfeld, NetanyahuFox News · 42 h agoA group of people protested outside Jerry Seinfeld's Washington, D.C. show. They chanted, used vulgar language and violently smashed posters of the comedian and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu. Anti-Israel agitators smash signs of Seinfeld…
American Jews who fled to Israel over rising antisemitism could prove decisive for Netanyahu’s futureNew York Post · 28 h agoJERUSALEM — Thousands of Americans Jews who fled to Israel amid rising antisemitism in the US could be pivotal in Tuesday’s national election — and most of them appear to be breaking for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, observers say. An…
Baltimore's Turnstile draws thousands to free D.C. concert supporting Gaza, Sudan and LebanonCBS News · 41 h agoUpdated on: October 25, 2026 / 5:56 PM EDT / The Baltimore Banner Grammy-winning Baltimore rock band Turnstile performed a free concert Saturday at the Washington Monument in Washington, D.C., drawing thousands of people in support of…
Israel election tests Netanyahu's rule amid Gaza war falloutIndia Today · 31 h agoIsrael will hold parliamentary elections on Tuesday, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeking to remain in power amid debate over his government's handling of the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack, the wars that followed, and its…
Israel Polls: Netanyahu Faces Eisenkot Challenge Amid Gaza War, Cost of LivingIndia Today · 28 h agoIsrael heads into a crucial parliamentary election for the 26th Knesset, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fighting to retain power amid significant security, political, and economic challenges. Netanyahu faces a major challenge from…
This center-right former general could unseat Netanyahu as Prime Minister in IsraelNPR · 41 h agoA former Israeli general is the main center-right challenger hoping to unseat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israeli elections this week. This center-right former general could unseat Netanyahu as Prime Minister in Israel A former…
Netanyahu delays Gaza security plans until after Israeli electionYeni Şafak English · 32 h agoIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has postponed critical security and administrative arrangements for the Gaza Strip until after the Oct. 27 election, shelving plans for an international stabilization force and the training of…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesOct 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$176K

Today$5.4K

This week$7.4K

At stake$12.5K

In the news596 headlines today, 4,197 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Jerusalem time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-a

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions