Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

Polymarket World › Middle East Closes Sat 11:59 PM ET · $13.8K today · $1.2M traded · $15.5K at stake · prices read 29 min ago

The odds

68%October 4

October 468%▲ 14
October 668%▲ 8
October 868%▼ 4
October 1168%▼ 2
October 1268%▼ 1
October 1468%
October 1568%▼ 1
October 1689%▲ 32
October 1789%▲ 14
October 1889%▲ 22
October 1989%▲ 10
October 2089%▼ 6

11 more

October 2189%▼ 3
October 2289%▲ 10
October 2389%▼ 7
October 2489%▲ 10
October 2592%▲ 18
October 2692%▲ 16
October 2792%▲ 8
October 2892%▲ 8
October 2992%▼ 3
October 3092%▲ 6
October 3192%

How the odds have moved

October 25: 68% on Oct 20, 92% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
October 1	<1%			0¢		$454K
October 2	<1%	▼ 14	0¢	3¢	$37.04	$107K
October 3	<1%	▼ 78	0¢	6¢	$15.87	$3.5K
October 4	68%	▲ 14	90¢	99¢	$1.01	$4.7K
✓ October 5	>99%	▲ 46	100¢	100¢		$3.9K
October 6	68%	▲ 8	81¢	87¢	$1.15	$56.7K
✓ October 7	>99%	▲ 31	94¢	100¢		$3.4K
October 8	68%	▼ 4	57¢	96¢	$1.04	$76.6K
✓ October 9	>99%	▲ 44	100¢	100¢		$27.3K
✓ October 10	>99%	▲ 33	98¢	100¢		$3.7K
October 11	68%	▼ 2	28¢	95¢	$1.05	$40.2K
October 12	68%	▼ 1	28¢	92¢	$1.09	$63.9K
✓ October 13	>99%	▲ 62	100¢	100¢		$25K
October 14	68%		9¢	94¢	$1.06	$787
October 15	68%	▼ 1	7¢	94¢	$1.06	$705
October 16	89%	▲ 32	95¢	100¢		$2.6K
October 17	89%	▲ 14	95¢	100¢		$2.8K
October 18	89%	▲ 22	87¢	90¢	$1.11	$4.1K
October 19	89%	▲ 10	99¢	100¢		$3.2K
October 20	89%	▼ 6	73¢	81¢	$1.23	$4.7K
October 21	89%	▼ 3	83¢	87¢	$1.15	$5.7K
October 22	89%	▲ 10	88¢	96¢	$1.04	$4.1K
October 23	89%	▼ 7	81¢	85¢	$1.18	$12.7K
October 24	89%	▲ 10	64¢	100¢		$4.4K
October 25	92%	▲ 18	100¢	100¢		$9.6K
October 26	92%	▲ 16	98¢	100¢		$12.7K
October 27	92%	▲ 8	91¢	94¢	$1.06	$10K
October 28	92%	▲ 8	87¢	88¢	$1.14	$8.4K
October 29	92%	▼ 3	82¢	86¢	$1.16	$90.6K
October 30	92%	▲ 6	94¢	95¢	$1.05	$93.8K
October 31	92%		82¢	85¢	$1.18	$10.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Saudi Arabia, Yemen

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Saudi Arabia and allies travel to Iran for talks on ending Houthi attacks, wider warNew York Post · 19 h agoTop officials from Saudi Arabia and allies Turkey and Pakistan were in Iran on Monday to negotiate an end to Houthi attacks — as well as the wider war. The talks represent the first, high-level contact between Tehran and the alliance that…
Houthis vs Egypt now? Yemen rebels say military aid to Saudi Arabia a declaration of war@firstpost · 2 h agoTensions in West Asia are rising, with Yemen’s Houthi rebels warning Egypt against providing military support to Saudi Arabia. A senior Houthi official has described the Egyptian parliament’s decision to authorise such assistance as a…
Iran hosts Saudi Arabia and regional powers as fears grow of return to warCNN · 25 h agoSaudi Arabia and its allies dispatched top security officials to Iran for talks on Monday amid fears of a fresh US-Israeli offensive that could plunge the Middle East into further instability. Pakistani military chief Asim Munir and…
Saudi Arabia sends medical aid to support healthcare in Yemen@arabnews · 2 h agoRIYADH: A new shipment of medicines and medical supplies from Saudi Arabia has been delivered to Yemen. The aid will strengthen health facilities’ preparedness for emergencies, as well as ensure the continuity of medical care and…
Bangladesh among Saudi Arabia’s priority countries: Saudi FMThe Daily Star · 7 h agoSaudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud today said Bangladesh is among Saudi Arabia’s priority countries, stressing the importance of strengthening economic cooperation. He noted the growing interest of Saudi companies in…
Houthis claim ballistic missile attack on oil refinery in eastern Saudi ArabiaTASS · 2 h agoAccording to Houthi spokesman Yahya Saria, the strike was precise and "resulted in the outbreak of major fires at the targeted facility" - Russian Politics & Diplomacy Russian Politics & DiplomacyInto section â- Business & Economy…
Oil Prices Swing as Iran Talks Meet Houthi Attacks on Saudi ArabiaCoinCentral · 4 h agoOil prices moved up and down on Tuesday as traders weighed diplomatic efforts against new attacks in the Middle East. Prices were mixed depending on the contract and time of day. Benchmark Brent crude futures rose 0.5% to $116.38 per…
Saudi Arabia contains fire near Ras Tanura Oil hub after attackMoneycontrol · 5 h agoSaudi Arabia contained a fire near its biggest export terminal of Ras Tanura along the Persian Gulf following an attack in the region, a person with knowledge of the matter said. The blaze occurred during the early hours of Tuesday, the…
Saudi Arabia, US discuss turning investment opportunities into projects@arabnews · 5 h agoRIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Investment Minister Fahad Al-Saif discussed ways to translate investment opportunities into tangible projects during his participation via videoconference in a meeting of the US-Saudi Business Council on Oct.
Egyptian Parliament Approves Military Support for Saudi ArabiaNTD · 11 h agoEgypt’s parliament has authorized President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi to provide military support to Saudi Arabia. What would you like to watch today? Egyptian Parliament Approves Military Support for Saudi Arabia NTD Evening News Full…
Dana White's Power Slap reportedly visiting Saudi Arabia amid WWE Crown Jewel confusionClutchPoints · 2 h agoDana White's Power Slap is reportedly set to visit Saudi Arabia amid the ongoing WWE-Crown Jewel confusions. At the beginning of this month, the airport attacks in Riyadh turned into a major concern, sparking doubts about the security of…
Saudi Arabia reportedly offers Houthis $1 billion for ceasefire in Iran-brokered dealKalingaTV · 5 h agoNew Delhi: Saudi Arabia has reportedly offered $1 billion to Yemen’s Houthi group as part of a proposed ceasefire arrangement mediated by Iran, according to Israeli media reports citing diplomatic sources in the Gulf. The reported deal…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesOct 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$1.2M

Today$13.8K

This week$66.8K

At stake$15.5K

In the news92 headlines today, 1,870 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against Yemen on the specified date, Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Saudi Arabia, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Saudi Arabia. Actions carried out by private military contractors, merc

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions