Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October?

Polymarket World › Middle East Closes Sat 11:59 PM ET · $5.2K today · $45.8K traded · $6.6K at stake · prices read 4 min ago

The odds

2.91median

035

Median 2.91Middle half 1.45 – 4.36

How the odds have moved

Median: 2.72 on Oct 20, 2.91 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
0-5	86%	▼ 3	89¢	91¢	$1.10	$22K
5-10	4%		3¢	5¢	$18.87	$10K
10-15	1%		1¢	2¢	$52.63	$2.7K
15-20	2%	▲ 2	1¢	4¢	$22.73	$2.9K
20-25	2%	▼ 1	0¢	3¢	$31.25	$3.1K
25-30	2%	▲ 2	0¢	4¢	$23.81	$2.4K
30+	2%	▲ 2	0¢	5¢	$21.74	$2.7K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Iran, Strait of Hormuz

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Iran says oil tanker catches fire after hitting naval mine east of Strait of HormuzMiddle East Monitor · 2 h agoOctober 27, 2026 at 1:51 pm Commercial vessels and oil tankers sit anchored in the waters off Bandar Abbas in southern Iran’s Hormozgan Province on September 9, 2026. [Fatemeh Bahrami – Anadolu Agency] An oil tanker caught fire after…
No violating vessel safe in Strait of HormuzMehr News Agency · 11 h agoTEHRAN, Oct. 27 (MNA) – Iran's armed forces chief said the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed and no violating vessel will be safe, with IRGC and Army forces exercising full control over the Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman. Iran's Chief of…
International Maritime Organization Chief: Some 400 Ships Remain Stranded in Strait of Hormuzworld.kbs.co.kr · 6 h ago[Economy] : The head of the International Maritime Organization(IMO) says there are still some 400 ships inside the Strait of Hormuz, carrying around five-thousand seafarers. IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez disclosed the figures…
Qatar urges Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz amid US mediation effortsThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 8 min agoIran needs to show good intentions for mediation efforts to succeed, mediator Qatar said on Tuesday, after a delegation from the Gulf Arab country visited Tehran earlier this week in an effort to de-escalate regional tensions in…
From Israeli missiles to the Strait of Hormuz: 5 reasons why Netanyahu’s election fate matters to India | ExplainedMoneycontrol · 2 h agoIsrael’s parliamentary election on October 27 is being watched closely in New Delhi, where the outcome has implications for defence supplies, trade negotiations, technology cooperation and India’s diplomatic engagement across West Asia…
IRGC Declares Strait of Hormuz Closed as Tanker Transits Drop to 4House of Saud · 14 h agoA CENTCOM spokesperson told Al Jazeera on October 22 that US forces had cleared shipping lanes of mines, that Iran’s mine claims were incorrect, and that 95 percent of vessels were “getting through.” The spokesperson described the IRGC…
US CENTCOM Commander Visits Strait of Hormuz as Oil Exports Top 1.5 Billion Barrels Since SummerMarine Insight · 25 h agoThe commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) visited the Strait of Hormuz on Oct. 25, as U.S. forces reach the milestone of assisting Gulf partners in exporting more than 1.5 billion barrels of crude oil since summer. Adm. Brad Cooper…
CENTCOM chief visits Strait of Hormuz amid ‘milestone’ of crude oil exportsIsrael & Jewish News - JNS · 27 h agoAdm. Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command, visited the Strait of Hormuz on Oct. 25, the U.S. military said on Sunday. The visit came as American forces “reach the milestone of assisting Gulf partners in exporting more than 1.5…
US forces support transit of 3,000 ships through Strait of Hormuz — CENTCOMTASS · 30 h agoAccording to the command, US forces reached the milestone of assisting Gulf partners in exporting more than 1.5 billion barrels of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz since summer - Russian Politics & Diplomacy Russian Politics &…
CENTCOM chief declares: Strait of Hormuz is free from Iranian minesIsrael National News · 35 h agoThe commander of US Central Command (CENTCOM), Adm. Brad Cooper, visited the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, as US forces reach the milestone of assisting Gulf partners in exporting more than 1.5 billion barrels of crude oil since summer…
Iran talks Middle East security, urges region to get US influence out | Live Updates from Fox News DigitalFox News · 20 min agoIran is working regional stability talks with U.S. allies Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, urging the region to remove foreign involvement, despite President Donald Trump's pressure to end Iran's nuclear aspirations and threats on the…
Maritime Crisis Deepens In Strait Of Hormuz As Nearly 500 Ships Stranded, Another Oil Tanker Attacked Near OmanUrduPoint · 34 h agoFahad Shabbir (@FahadShabbir) Published October 26, 2026 | 12:33 AM Movement of 492 vessels near Fujairah, Dubai and Oman has been affected as an international maritime security body warns of a serious risk of further attacks in the Strait…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesOct 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$45.8K

Today$5.2K

This week$15.5K

At stake$6.6K

In the news366 headlines today, 4,278 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for October 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized.

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions