Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?
PolymarketWorld › Middle EastCloses Sat 11:59 PM ET · $2.4K today · $88K traded · $11.1K at stake · prices read 8 min ago
The odds
27.1median
1639
Median27.1Middle half25.8 – 28.4
How the odds have moved
Median: 27.4 on Oct 20, 27.1 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
<20
3%
▼ 1
1¢
4¢
$22.73
$13K
20-24
8%
▲ 1
7¢
9¢
$11.11
$16.4K
25-29
76%
74¢
75¢
$1.33
$25.5K
30-34
13%
▲ 1
12¢
13¢
$7.69
$25.5K
35+
<1%
0¢
1¢
$7.7K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
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Egyptian parliament authorizes anti-Houthi military supportThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 17 h agoParliament authorized Egypt's military on Monday to provide support to help defend Saudi Arabia, parliamentarians said, and local media reported, a move that could push Cairo directly into the regional conflict that has expanded with…
Egypt Approves Military Support for Saudi Arabia After Houthi Attacks EscalateUS News & World Report · 22 h agoCAIRO, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Parliament authorised Egypt's military on Monday to provide support to help defend Saudi Arabia, parliamentarians said and local media reported, a move that could push Cairo directly into the regional conflict…
Saudi Arabia Reopens Riyadh Airport, Houthis Vow More Strikes: 'Never Be Safe'TimesNow · 34 h agoThe Houthis have repeatedly attacked the Riyadh airport in the past few weeks. Saudi Arabia on Sunday partially reopened its main airport in Riyadh, even as Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi rebels vowed to continue attacks on the facility…
Yemen: 25 killed, 30 injured in missile attack on military campIndia Tribune - Chicago - · 41 h agoAden (Yemen), Oct 19 (IANS) At least 25 soldiers were killed and more than 30 others injured on Monday after three missiles struck a government military training base in Yemen's southeastern province of Shabwa, a government military…
Saudi Arabia intercepts Houthi missiles, drones as Yemen fighting continuesIran International · 44 h agoSaudi Arabia intercepted drones and missiles over Riyadh and southern parts of the country on Sunday as fighting with Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis continued, the Saudi-led coalition said. The coalition said two drones and a ballistic…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions
