Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

Polymarket World › Middle East Closes Feb 28, 2027 · $11.5K today · $102K traded · $5.4K at stake · prices read 13 min ago

The odds

42%No Next Minister by Feb 28

No Next Minister by Feb 2842%▼ 2
Yoram Cohen10%▼ 2
Itamar Ben Gvir10%▲ 2
Ofer Winter7%▲ 3
Yair Golan7%▼ 5
Yoav Segalovich6%▲ 1
Bezalel Smotrich5%
Talya Lankri3%▼ 2
Meirav Ben-Ari2%
Hili Tropper (Yechiel Tropper)2%
Eli Cohen2%▼ 3
Elazar Stern1%

6 more

Matan Kahana1%
Yossi Cohen1%▼ 3
Amir Ohana1%▼ 3
Avi Dichter1%▼ 2
Gideon Sa’ar1%
Ram Ben-Barak<1%

How the odds have moved

No Next Minister by Feb 28: 37% on Oct 20, 42% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
No Next Minister by Feb 28	42%	▼ 2	41¢	44¢	$2.27	$38.4K
Yoram Cohen	10%	▼ 2	10¢	11¢	$9.09	$9.1K
Itamar Ben Gvir	10%	▲ 2	9¢	11¢	$9.09	$5.9K
Ofer Winter	7%	▲ 3	4¢	10¢	$10.00	$9.2K
Yair Golan	7%	▼ 5	5¢	9¢	$11.11	$1.7K
Yoav Segalovich	6%	▲ 1	1¢	10¢	$9.80	$897
Bezalel Smotrich	5%		0¢	9¢	$10.87	$2.1K
Talya Lankri	3%	▼ 2	2¢	3¢	$31.25	$8K
Meirav Ben-Ari	2%		0¢	4¢	$25.00	$528
Hili Tropper (Yechiel Tropper)	2%		0¢	4¢	$25.00	$604
Eli Cohen	2%	▼ 3	0¢	3¢	$32.26	$1.3K
Elazar Stern	1%		1¢	2¢	$47.62	$3.9K
Matan Kahana	1%		0¢	2¢	$50.00	$11.8K
Yossi Cohen	1%	▼ 3	0¢	2¢	$55.56	$1.6K
Amir Ohana	1%	▼ 3	0¢	2¢	$66.67	$1.7K
Avi Dichter	1%	▼ 2	0¢	2¢	$66.67	$2.2K
Gideon Sa’ar	1%		0¢	1¢	$83.33	$2.2K
Ram Ben-Barak	<1%		0¢	1¢		$570

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Israeli Minister of National Security, Yoram Cohen, Itamar Ben Gvir

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Who is Itamar Ben-Gvir, the Israeli firebrand rising with the populist right across the globe?Fox News · 45 h agoKnesset candidate Yishai Fleisher discusses party leader Itamar Ben-Gvir, one of Israel’s most controversial politicians, who could have a major say in Netanyahu’s political future as Israelis prepare to vote on Tuesday. Polling ahead of…
Itamar Ben-Gvir, Bezalel Smotrich should be excluded from government, Bill Ackman saysThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 48 h agoJewish billionaire Bill Ackman condemned National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich in a Sunday Twitter/X post, just days before the Israeli election, saying a new government should not include them…
Gaza is 'Jewish people's land' Itamar Ben-Gvir tells 'Post' | The Jerusalem PostThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 41 h agoGazans should be sent to emigrate to France or other countries in Europe so that Israel can “conquer the whole territory” of the Gaza Strip, far Right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir told The Jerusalem Post in a recent…
Benjamin Netanyahu must reject unity government with Gadi Eisenkot, Itamar Ben-Gvir tells 'Post' | The Jerusalem PostThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 4 days agoFar-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir sharply criticized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s alleged desire to form a “unity government” with Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot in an interview with The Jerusalem Post this…
Israel's Ben-Gvir’s rise mirrors populist right’s gains across WestFox News · 45 h agoKnesset candidate Yishai Fleisher discusses party leader Itamar Ben-Gvir, one of Israel’s most controversial politicians, who could have a major say in Netanyahu’s political future as Israelis prepare to vote on Tuesday. Israel's…
Israel Election 2026: Benjamin Netanyahu, Itamar Ben-Gvir backed Ra'am in 2021, Bezalel Smotrich saysThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 5 days agoNational Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir (Otzma Yehudit) and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed in 2021 to a proposed coalition arrangement with Ra'am, Finance Minister and Religious Zionist Party chairman Bezalel Smotrich told…
Israel Election 2026 | Today's latest from Al JazeeraAl Jazeera · 3 days agoThe global trend may show young people leaning politically to the left, but in Israel… they’re leaning to the right. Opposition figures join Tel Aviv protesters demanding an independent October 7 inquiry. As Israel heads to the polls on…
Israel is holding its most important election in years. Here’s what’s at stakeCNN · 46 h agoWhen Israelis go the polls on October 27, they will face a familiar question: Should Benjamin Netanyahu, the country’s longest-serving prime minister, stay in power? Nearly every recent election has been a referendum on Netanyahu. This…
Israel orders closure of West Bank after soldiers kill 2 men behind an alleged attackNPR · 4 days agoIsraeli soldiers and emergency personnel gather near ambulances following a shooting attack near Yehuda Junction, near Hebron, in the occupied West Bank, Friday, Oct. 23, 2026. Mahmoud Illean/AP hide caption HEBRON, West Bank — Israeli…
Israeli far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir in RamlaThe Lufkin Daily News · 7 days agoThe Lufkin Daily News Israeli far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, leader of the Jewish Power (Otzma Yehudit) party, reacts as he tours a market, ahead of Israel's national election, in Ramla, Israel, October 14, 2026…
Netanyahu Outlines Future Cabinet Role for Itamar Ben-GvirGlobal Arab Network · 7 days agoIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Monday that Itamar Ben-Gvir, the leader of the far-right Otzma Yehudit party, is set to occupy a senior ministerial role in the upcoming government. The announcement comes as political…
Police Chief Summoned to Meeting With Netanyahu on Election Integrityynetglobal · 2 days agoPolice Commissioner Danny Levy has been summoned to a meeting tomorrow with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the issue of election integrity. Levy refused to attend a previous discussion on the matter called by National Security…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesFeb 28, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$102K

Today$11.5K

This week$31.6K

At stake$5.4K

In the news1 headlines today, 7 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of National Security will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of National Security” or be appointed to the ministerial po

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions