PolymarketWorld › Middle EastCloses Feb 28, 2027 · $7.1K today · $107K traded · $3.9K at stake · prices read 12 min ago
The odds
41%No Next Minister by Feb 28
No Next Minister by Feb 2841%▼ 9
Tally Gotliv11%▲ 4
Yariv Levin8%▲ 3
Orit Farkash-Hacohen6%▲ 6
Gilad Kariv4%
Oded Forer4%▲ 1
Gideon Sa’ar3%
Ofir Katz2%
Amir Ohana1%
Ayelet Shaked1%
Simcha Rothman<1%
How the odds have moved
No Next Minister by Feb 28: 32% on Oct 20, 41% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
Oct 26, 11 PM ETNo Next Minister by Feb 28: 38% → 43%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
No Next Minister by Feb 28
41%
▼ 9
40¢
41¢
$2.44
$74.4K
Tally Gotliv
11%
▲ 4
10¢
11¢
$8.93
$5.1K
Yariv Levin
8%
▲ 3
7¢
9¢
$11.63
$2.9K
Orit Farkash-Hacohen
6%
▲ 6
0¢
12¢
$8.33
$2.3K
Gilad Kariv
4%
1¢
7¢
$13.89
$2.7K
Oded Forer
4%
▲ 1
2¢
6¢
$16.95
$3.2K
Gideon Sa’ar
3%
1¢
6¢
$17.86
$6.4K
Ofir Katz
2%
1¢
3¢
$35.71
$6.3K
Amir Ohana
1%
0¢
2¢
$41.67
$899
Ayelet Shaked
1%
0¢
1¢
$2K
Simcha Rothman
<1%
0¢
0¢
$1.1K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Israeli Minister of Justice, Tally Gotliv, Yariv Levin
Yair Golan threatens Channel 14, Eli AcademyIsrael National News · 3 days agoGolan also declared that funding for the Bnei David pre-military academy in Eli would be discontinued. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich responded sharply, warning that a government led by Gadi Eisenkot and Golan would pursue policies…
The Battle for 61: Netanyahu's post-election strategyIsrael & Jewish News - JNS · 30 h agoPrime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu enters Tuesday’s election with an established political bloc but no guaranteed majority. Most polls project Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionist–Zehut falling short of the…
Levin vows to reshape Supreme Court as historic battle loomsIsrael National News · 5 days agoJustice Minister Yariv Levin says the next Knesset could transform Israel's Supreme Court, advance sovereignty in Judea and Samaria, and determine the future of judicial reform. Levin vows to reshape Supreme Court as historic battle looms
Ben Gvir slams Netanyahu's campaign to draw votes away from Otzma YehuditIsrael National News · 4 days agoOtzma Yehudit chairman and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir on Friday criticized efforts by the Likud party to attract voters away from his party, claiming that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to establish a broad…
A Change Is Gonna Come: The Anti-Netanyahu Bloc Is Building an Unstoppable WaveHaaretz · 6 days agoIn my dream I see a tsunami. Every day and night. For almost four years, since the launch of Yariv Levin's judicial overhaul on January 4, 2023, and even more s Print in a simple, ad-free format Ad-free and in a comfortable reading format…
Israel’s Supreme Court Pushes Back Netanyahu’s Judicial ReformThe Epoch Times · 6 days agoIsrael’s Supreme Court affirmed its authority on Monday to overturn government decisions and so-called “Basic Laws,” major pieces of legislation that serve as a sort of constitution for Israel. In an 8–7 majority decision, the 15-member…
The buck stops nowhere in IsraelThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 6 days agoIsraelis heading to the polls have no shortage of reasons to want a new government. Each of us arrives at that conclusion by a different road. If you served in this war, in uniform or in reserves, you may want change because it is…
Judicial Reform: The tragedy of the "goats" Netanyahu was not allowed to removeIsrael National News · 8 days agoDr. Aaron Lerner is head of IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis, since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations. In an interview with Kalman Liebskind, Editor in Chief of Makor…
Israel regulations allow crime victims to speak directly at parole hearingsThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 8 days agoVictims of sexual and violent offenses will be entitled to address parole boards directly before a prisoner’s early release is decided, under regulations signed by Justice Minister Yariv Levin and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir…
Gotliev: "You love submissive yes-men"JFeed · 11 days agoOtzma Yehudit MK slams PM over statement that Defense, National Security and Justice portfolios will stay with Likud in next government • The minister who did what you didn't do for years — you want to push him aside? MK Tally Gotliv…
Netanyahu rules out giving key ministries to Ben-Gvir, sparking coalition disputeMiddle East Monitor · 11 days agoOctober 16, 2026 at 11:45 am Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (R) and Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir (L) in East Jerusalem on January 27, 2023. [Mostafa Alkharouf – Anadolu Agency] Israeli Prime Minister…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions
