Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

Polymarket World › Middle East Closes Feb 28, 2027 · $5.6K today · $156K traded · $8.6K at stake · prices read 24 min ago

The odds

38%No Next Minister by Feb 28
  • No Next Minister by Feb 2838%▲ 2
  • Yair Lapid22%▼ 4
  • Benjamin Netanyahu8%▲ 7
  • Gideon Sa’ar7%▲ 4
  • Naftali Bennett6%▼ 3
  • Avigdor Lieberman5%
  • Gadi Eizenkot4%▼ 1
  • Israel Katz1%
  • Yoram Cohen1%
  • Ron Dermer<1%
  • Amir Ohana<1%
  • Benny Gantz<1%
3 more
  • Eli Cohen<1%
  • Yossi Cohen<1%
  • Yair Golan<1%

How the odds have moved

No Next Minister by Feb 28: 38% on Oct 20, 38% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 23, 11 PM ETNo Next Minister by Feb 28: 37% → 43%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

  2. Oct 21, 8 PM ETNo Next Minister by Feb 28: 43% → 36%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
No Next Minister by Feb 28 38% ▲ 2 37¢ 39¢ $2.56 $64.3K
Yair Lapid 22% ▼ 4 21¢ 22¢ $4.55 $7.4K
Benjamin Netanyahu 8% ▲ 7 0¢ 15¢ $6.62 $1.4K
Gideon Sa’ar 7% ▲ 4 4¢ 10¢ $9.80 $15.8K
Naftali Bennett 6% ▼ 3 4¢ 7¢ $14.29 $18.2K
Avigdor Lieberman 5% 3¢ 7¢ $14.29 $10K
Gadi Eizenkot 4% ▼ 1 3¢ 4¢ $23.81 $25.6K
Israel Katz 1% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 $5.8K
Yoram Cohen 1% 0¢ 1¢ $100.00 $1K
Ron Dermer <1% 0¢ 0¢ $917
Amir Ohana <1% 0¢ 0¢ $650
Benny Gantz <1% 0¢ 0¢ $2.2K
Eli Cohen <1% 0¢ 0¢ $1.1K
Yossi Cohen <1% 0¢ $569
Yair Golan <1% 0¢ $623

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yair Lapid, Benjamin Netanyahu

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

64%Gadi Eizenkot
  • Gadi Eizenkot64%▲ 7
  • Benjamin Netanyahu23%▼ 3
  • Naftali Bennett9%▼ 3
16 more
  • Avigdor Lieberman2%
  • Itamar Ben Gvir<1%
  • Yossi Cohen<1%
  • Yair Golan<1%
  • Israel Katz<1%
  • Amir Ohana<1%
  • Benny Gantz<1%
  • Gideon Sa’ar<1%
  • Yariv Levin<1%
  • Moshe Feiglin<1%
  • Ayelet Shaked<1%
  • Yoaz Hendel<1%
  • Nir Barkat<1%
  • Gilad Erdan<1%
  • Ofer Winter<1%
  • Yair Lapid<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions