US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
65%October 22
- October 2265%▼ 4
- October 2465%▼ 3
- October 2865%▼ 4
6 more
- October 3165%▼ 4
- November 865%▼ 6
- November 1565%▼ 4
- November 2265%▼ 4
- November 3065%▼ 2
- December 3165%▼ 3
Install
Next Israeli Minister of Defense?
The odds
40%No Next Minister by Feb 28
- No Next Minister by Feb 2840%
- Avigdor Lieberman16%▲ 12
- Naftali Bennett13%▼ 5
- Israel Katz8%▼ 5
- Itamar Ben Gvir4%
- Yair Lapid4%
- Elazar Stern4%
- Bezalel Smotrich3%▼ 1
- Ofer Winter3%▼ 2
- Gadi Eizenkot3%▲ 1
- Yoram Cohen3%▼ 1
- Moshe Feiglin2%
6 more
- Benjamin Netanyahu2%▼ 2
- Yair Golan1%▼ 3
- Benny Gantz<1%▼ 1
- Amir Ohana<1%
- Eli Cohen<1%
- Matan Kahana<1%
How the odds have moved
No Next Minister by Feb 28: 40% on Oct 20, 40% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Next Minister by Feb 28 | 40% | 40¢ | 42¢ | $2.36 | $39.3K | |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 16% | ▲ 12 | 16¢ | 20¢ | $5.03 | $10.9K |
| Naftali Bennett | 13% | ▼ 5 | 13¢ | 18¢ | $5.43 | $1.9K |
| Israel Katz | 8% | ▼ 5 | 8¢ | 9¢ | $11.36 | $7.2K |
| Itamar Ben Gvir | 4% | 1¢ | 8¢ | $11.90 | $507 | |
| Yair Lapid | 4% | 1¢ | 8¢ | $12.82 | $384 | |
| Elazar Stern | 4% | 1¢ | 8¢ | $13.33 | $1.4K | |
| Bezalel Smotrich | 3% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 8¢ | $13.33 | $688 |
| Ofer Winter | 3% | ▼ 2 | 3¢ | 4¢ | $24.39 | $8.5K |
| Gadi Eizenkot | 3% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.39 | $637 |
| Yoram Cohen | 3% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 5¢ | $19.61 | $493 |
| Moshe Feiglin | 2% | 0¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | $566 | |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 2% | ▼ 2 | 1¢ | 4¢ | $28.57 | $354 |
| Yair Golan | 1% | ▼ 3 | 0¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | $776 |
| Benny Gantz | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | $3K |
| Amir Ohana | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | $206 | ||
| Eli Cohen | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $492 | ||
| Matan Kahana | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $827 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Israeli Minister of Defense, Avigdor Lieberman, Naftali Bennett
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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All middle east ›Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
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- Itamar Ben Gvir<1%
- Yossi Cohen<1%
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- Yair Lapid<1%
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Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
91%No Hormuz Agreement
- No Hormuz Agreement91%▼ 5
- Hormuz Agreement; R Senate4%▲ 3
- Hormuz Agreement; D Senate3%▲ 1
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
72%October 21
- October 2172%▼ 1
- October 3172%▼ 2
- November 1572%▼ 2
2 more
- November 3072%▼ 1
- December 3172%▼ 4
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
36%December 31
- March 3133%▲ 6
- October 3133%▲ 3
- November 3033%▲ 5
1 more
- December 3136%▼ 1
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
88%No Hormuz Agreement
- No Hormuz Agreement88%▼ 3
- Hormuz Agreement; D Senate7%▲ 3
- Hormuz Agreement; R Senate4%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.