University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - October 2026

Polymarket Economy Closed, awaiting its result Closed Sun 10:20 AM ET · $1.3K today · $29K traded · $3.4K at stake

The last odds before it closed

47.4median
37.157.9
Median 47.4Middle half 46.7 – 48.2

How the odds have moved

Median: 46.3 on Oct 20, 47.4 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
<40.0 <1% 0¢ $515
40.0 to 42.9 <1% 0¢ $891
43.0 to 45.9 3% ▼ 21 6¢ $16.67 $10.1K
46.0 to 48.9 97% ▲ 45 99¢ 100¢ $12K
49.0 to 51.9 <1% ▼ 3 0¢ $3.9K
52.0 to 54.9 <1% ▼ 2 0¢ $948
55.0+ <1% 0¢ $692

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

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  • Consumer Sentiment At 5-Month LowSeeking Alpha · 3 days agoThe University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final reading fell to 48.0 in October, a 0.2% decrease from September. Read more here. - The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final reading fell to 48.0 in October, a 0.2%…
  • Mexican Peso recovers but faces weekly loss on Iran riskFXStreet · 3 days agoThe Mexican Peso appreciates by about 0.32% on the day against the US Dollar, but it remains poised to end the week with losses of more than 1% even as risk appetite soured amid a potential escalation of the Middle East conflict. The…
  • Dow Down 520 Points as Tech Tries to RallySchaeffers Investment Research · 4 days agoStocks are a mixed bag to end the week, with oil prices and Middle East tensions in focus once more. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) is down 520 points at last look, thanks to a post-earnings bear gap from American Express (AXP)…
  • US Consumer Sentiment Edges Down to 48The Rio Times · 4 days agoRio Times Markets · United States —Who. The University of Michigan published its October consumer survey, and S&P Global published its business surveys (PMIs). —What. Sentiment was 48 after 48.1 in September, and one-year inflation…
  • Consumers Hold Steady But Sentiment Among Independents FallsUS News & World Report · 4 days agoIndependent voters have soured on the economy as the midterm elections loom. Meanwhile, inflation expectations are rising. Consumer Sentiment Holds Steady Shoppers look for items in a department store on Oct. 14 in Miami, Florida. Consumer…
  • October Michigan Consumer Sentiment Revised Upward from Preliminary Print, Slightly Below September ReadingYahoo Finance · 4 days agoThe University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was revised upward on Friday to a reading of 48.0 for October from 46.3 in the preliminary estimate, compared with expectations for no revision in a ... Oops, something went wrong October…
  • Stock Markets: A Perfect Storm or a Healthy Correction?MarketScreener · 4 days agoPanic is beginning to spread through the technology sector. Until recently, investors tended to regard the turbulence in AI stocks as a necessary shakeout before the next rally. But the mood has shifted this week. There is a growing sense…
  • Wall St set to open lower after AI-led selloff; SpaceX worries hit telecomsMacon Telegraph · 4 days agoOct 23 (Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes were set to open lower on Friday as caution prevailed after a sharp selloff in AI-linked stocks, while telecom stocks tumbled on fears that intensified competition from SpaceX could erode their…
  • Australian Dollar losses steam at 0.7000 as PMIs signal a decelerationFXStreet · 4 days agoThe Australian Dollar retreats 0.17% against the US Dollar on Thursday as sentiment soured on US tech stocks falling on worries about AI valuations, while Oil surged on an escalation of the US-Iran conflict. The AUD/USD trades at 0.7017…
  • Precious metals tumble despite falling yields as Hormuz tensions intensify - Kitco PM ReportKitco News · 4 days ago(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices were sharply lower in late U.S. trading Thursday, as renewed Middle East tensions sent crude oil prices higher, reinforcing inflation concerns and expectations for additional Federal Reserve…
  • Gold slides as safe-haven demand shifts to US Treasuries despite lower yieldsFXStreet · 4 days agoGold (XAU/USD) collapses over 2% on Thursday as investors flee to the safety of US Treasuries amid falling yields and US equities. Concerns over technology companies' credit risks are mounting as investors seek evidence that massive AI…
  • EXEC: New Survey Sees Dick’s and Academy Climbing the Consumer Preference Chartssgbonline.com · 5 days agoThe report summarizing the CSI said there are two wolves inside the consumer. One reports being pessimistic about their future finances, while the other feeds the consumer urge to “pounce of good deals, on need-to-haves, and on treats…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions