Eritrea invades Ethiopia by...?

Polymarket World › Africa Closes Dec 31 · $216 today · $115K traded · $10.7K at stake · prices read 10 min ago

The odds

14%December 31
  • October 315%
  • December 3114%

How the odds have moved

October 31: 10% on Oct 20, 5% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
October 31 5% 5¢ 5¢ $20.83 $55.6K
December 31 14% 14¢ 15¢ $6.67 $59.8K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Eritrea, Ethiopia

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  • Eritrean Troops Suffer Heavy Losses – Ethiopian Militia@NewsCentralTV · 40 h agoEritrean troops have suffered “heavy losses” and are retreating towards their border, a spokesperson for an Ethiopian pro-government militia told AFP on Tuesday. Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of backing the rebel Tigray People’s Liberation…
  • Tensions Along Eritrea-Ethiopia Border Risk Erupting Into WarEurasia Review · 4 days agoBy Africa Defense Forum Troop movements, drone attacks and escalating rhetoric have pushed Eritrea and Ethiopia back to the brink of war. Analysts warn that, without a drastic reversal, the conflict risks costing thousands of lives and…
  • Eritrea Rejects Regional Restraint Calls, Accuses Ethiopia of Endangering African BordersBorkena · 4 days agoEritrea's Foreign Ministry accuses Ethiopia of endangering African borders and rejects international de-escalation calls amid rising regional tensions. Read more. Eritrea Rejects Regional Restraint Calls, Accuses Ethiopia of Endangering…
  • Perspective - Ethiopia-Eritrea: Is there a risk of a wider conflict?France 24 · 4 days agoEthiopia-Eritrea: Is there a risk of a wider conflict? - Perspective France 24 Ethiopia-Eritrea: Is there a risk of a wider conflict? To display this content from YouTube, you must enable advertisement tracking and audience measurement…
  • Gunfire and chaotic scenes in Kenyan border town as hundreds flee EthiopiaThe Washington Post · 4 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. A police officer and a…
  • Ethiopia Border Fighting Disrupts Trade, Displaces ThousandsThe Kenyan Wallstreet · 29 h agoCross-border trade between Kenya and Ethiopia has been interrupted by fighting in the Ethiopian town of Moyale, stranding cargo trucks, closing businesses, and sending thousands of people across the border into Marsabit County. The…
  • Two Ethiopian Regions Fight Over Border TownThe Rio Times · 36 h agoETHIOPIA · MOYALE · SECURITY Forces and armed civilians from two Ethiopian regions have been fighting for days in the border town of Moyale, and families are fleeing into Kenya. Ethiopia’s federal government had not commented by Sunday 25…
  • US Envoy Rejects Ethiopia’s Armed AllianceThe Rio Times · 36 h agoETHIOPIA · US DIPLOMACY · ARMED ALLIANCE The US ambassador to Ethiopia says the approach of an armed alliance is not “a viable path forward,” but the “dangerous mistake” wording in an Amharic headline does not appear in his English…
  • Ethiopia Drought Damages 250,000 HectaresThe Rio Times · 36 h agoETHIOPIA · DROUGHT · FOOD SECURITY A Red Cross emergency plan counts 250,035 hectares (about 618,000 acres) of Ethiopian cropland damaged by this year’s El Niño drought, with more than 3.5 million people affected. The figure matters…
  • Ethiopia Calls for Shared Red Sea SecurityThe Rio Times · 2 days agoETHIOPIA · RED SEA SECURITY Ethiopia’s intelligence chief says no handful of countries can keep the Red Sea safe alone. He spoke on Friday, 23 October, as a regional security forum opened in Bahir Dar. Ethiopia called for shared Red Sea…
  • Over 14,000 Ethiopians Flee Moyale Fighting Into KenyaKulu Media · 47 h agoHome » News » Ethiopia » Over 14,000 Ethiopians Flee Moyale Fighting Into Kenya Over 14,000 flee Moyale clashes as humanitarian needs surge in Kenya. More than 14,000 Ethiopians have fled deadly fighting in the southern border town of…
  • Ethiopia Elevates Sea Access to Existential Security IssueBirr Metrics · 2 days agoEthiopia has renewed its diplomatic push for access to the sea, with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) describing maritime access as an existential issue affecting the country’s long-term security, economic sovereignty and ability to…

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PolymarketCloses tomorrow 11:59 PM ET · $2.4M today

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions