Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

Polymarket World › Middle East Closes Dec 30 · $2.6K today · $178K traded · $24.6K at stake · prices read 32 min ago

The odds

63%No Meeting by December 31

No Meeting by December 3163%▼ 3
Qatar9%▼ 3
Pakistan5%▲ 1
Switzerland4%▲ 1
Austria4%
UAE3%
Italy3%
Other3%
USA2%▼ 1
Oman2%▼ 2
Saudi Arabia2%
Other - Europe2%

7 more

Russia1%
Turkey1%▼ 2
Other - Middle East/North Africa1%
Iran<1%
Iraq<1%
Kazakhstan<1%
Egypt<1%

How the odds have moved

No Meeting by December 31: 58% on Oct 20, 63% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
No Meeting by December 31	63%	▼ 3	63¢	65¢	$1.54	$69.2K
Qatar	9%	▼ 3	9¢	11¢	$9.01	$16.8K
Pakistan	5%	▲ 1	5¢	6¢	$17.24	$3.3K
Switzerland	4%	▲ 1	3¢	6¢	$15.63	$3.3K
Austria	4%		2¢	6¢	$16.13	$3.1K
UAE	3%		1¢	6¢	$16.67	$3.2K
Italy	3%		1¢	6¢	$16.95	$3.5K
Other	3%		1¢	6¢	$17.54	$3K
USA	2%	▼ 1	2¢	4¢	$25.00	$36.8K
Oman	2%	▼ 2	2¢	3¢	$35.71	$3.1K
Saudi Arabia	2%		1¢	3¢	$30.30	$2.9K
Other - Europe	2%		1¢	3¢	$34.48	$3.9K
Russia	1%		1¢	2¢	$50.00	$3.6K
Turkey	1%	▼ 2	1¢	1¢	$83.33	$3.2K
Other - Middle East/North Africa	1%		0¢	1¢	$71.43	$2.9K
Iran	<1%		0¢	1¢		$3.5K
Iraq	<1%		0¢	0¢		$3.8K
Kazakhstan	<1%		0¢	0¢		$5.1K
Egypt	<1%		0¢	0¢		$3.7K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Iran, US-Iran

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Tehran Envoy Urges Seoul to Stay out of US-Iran Conflictworld.kbs.co.kr · 6 h ago[Politics] : Anchor: KBS recently held an exclusive interview with the newly appointed ambassador of Iran to South Korea. As signals emerge from Washington that there might soon be more air raids on Iran, the diplomat warned of a strong…
Gold rebounds above $4,000 amid hopes of easing US‑Iran tensionsFXStreet · 15 h agoGold price (XAU/USD) rebounds to around $4,010, snapping the two-day losing streak during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal edges higher as easing oil prices temper inflation concerns ahead of this week’s US Federal…
Qatar Working on Agreement Between US, Iran, Mutual Concessions Under Discussion - ReportsSputnik International · 24 h agoMOSCOW (Sputnik) - Qatar is working on an agreement between the United States and Iran, under which both sides will make a number of mutual concessions within five days, The New York Times reported on Monday, citing diplomatic sources…
Gold has crashed over 25% since the US-Iran war beganFinbold · 23 h agoGold has suffered a sharp reversal since the US-Israeli war against Iran began on February 28, with bullion prices falling nearly a quarter despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Specifically, spot gold was trading at $5,378 per…
‘Exceptionally high price’: Australian drivers face $10.5bn fuel hit from US-Iran warThe West Australian · 14 h agoThe West Australian is a leading news source in Perth and WA. Breaking local and world news from sport and business to lifestyle and current affairs. Local motorists are bearing the brunt of the US-Iran war, with rising fuel prices hitting…
Pakistan lifts policy rate to 12% as inflation risks rise with US-Iran tensionsBriefs Finance · 17 h agoPakistan's central bank lifted its target rate by half a percentage point to 12% on Monday, its first increase since April. The move lined up with expectations from most economists in a Bloomberg poll. Speaking in Karachi after the…
Brent remains near $115; Oil extends slide as diplomacy eases fears of wider US-Iran escalationCNBCTV18 · 13 h agoOil prices fell for a second straight session on Tuesday October 27, retreating further from a six-month high as intensified diplomacy raised hopes that the US-Iran war will not widen. Brent crude traded at $114.99 a barrel in early Asian…
Pakistan Should Mediate On US-Iran-Saudi Issues But Also Address Internal Affairs: Shaukat YousafzaiUrduPoint · 21 h agoSanaullah Nagra (@) Published October 26, 2026 | 10:27 PM PTI can hold talks, but the government must create political space, facilitate a meeting with Imran Khan and allow his treatment at Shifa Hospital, which would not cost the…
Crude Oil Prices Fall For Second Day As Brent Slips Below $115 Amid US-Iran Diplomatic TalksFree Press Journal · 9 h agoGlobal crude oil prices declined for the second consecutive session on Tuesday as renewed diplomatic efforts to ease the US-Iran conflict raised hopes of reduced tensions in West Asia. Brent crude slipped below $115 per barrel, trading at…
US-Iran War Live Updates: Saudi Arabia reports intercepting Houthi ballistic missile over RiyadhThe Times of India · 35 h agoTensions across the Middle East intensified as the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Yemen reported military operations, exchanged warnings and ... US President Donald Trump has urged Israelis to vote for the return of Prime Minister…
"Whether war happens or not, our policies remain in place": Iran FM Araghchi on US-Iran tensionsANI News · 44 h agoBrazil reviews US-Paraguay deal on Itaipu energy for AI projects "Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam is practised, not merely preached": EAM Jaishankar on India's global outreach Pakistan’s LPG shortage rises as dealers strike, cooking fuel prices soar…
Oil prices fall as US-Iran peace talks ease tensions, but Saudi attacks keep global supply risks highHindustan Times · 28 h agoOil prices fell on Monday as hopes of peace talks between the United States and Iran eased fears of further military action in the Middle East. However, continued attacks on Saudi Arabia, a major oil producer, kept investors worried about…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$178K

Today$2.6K

This week$6.5K

At stake$24.6K

In the news362 headlines today, 4,152 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve according to the country in which the next direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran begins by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions