Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
11%chance▲ 3
Install
Which Senators will vote for Kari Lake? (Before 2028)
The odds
60%Rand Paul
- Rand Paul60%
- Susan Collins45%
- Lisa Murkowski29%
- Bill Cassidy9%▲ 1
- Thom Tillis7%▲ 1
- Mitch McConnell4%▼ 2
- John Fetterman2%▼ 3
- Ruben Gallego2%
How the odds have moved
Rand Paul: 60% on Oct 20, 60% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rand Paul | 60% | 7¢ | 75¢ | $1.33 | 6.2K | |
| Susan Collins | 45% | 4¢ | 38¢ | $2.63 | 3.8K | |
| Lisa Murkowski | 29% | 2¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | 1.9K | |
| Bill Cassidy | 9% | ▲ 1 | 5¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 5.5K |
| Thom Tillis | 7% | ▲ 1 | 4¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 4.3K |
| Mitch McConnell | 4% | ▼ 2 | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 8.0K |
| John Fetterman | 2% | ▼ 3 | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 5.6K |
| Ruben Gallego | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 2.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Kari Lake, Senators, Rand Paul
Search ›-
Susan Collins Gets Trump Boost As New Poll Erases Jackson’s LeadOct 24, 2026 at 06:39 AM EDT Oct 24, 2026 at 06:44 AM EDT President Donald Trump has handed Republican Senator Susan Collins a timely economic boost in the competitive Maine Senate race, unveiling support for the state’s lobster industry… -
Susan Collins Touts Canada Tariff Exemptions in Tight Maine Senate RaceOct 23, 2026 at 03:21 PM EDT Republican Senator Susan Collins announced Friday that U.S. tariffs will exempt nine categories of Canadian imports used by Maine agricultural businesses after she pressed the Trump administration for relief… -
Maine voters reveal why Susan Collins could defy the polls in crucial Senate showdownMaine voters weigh in on Susan Collins' re-election bid against Troy Jackson, revealing why the longtime Republican senator's personal connections could prove decisive. Maine voters reveal why Susan Collins could defy the polls in crucial… -
Trump administration cancels some Canada tariffs, Sen. Susan Collins saysThe Trump administration has granted tariff exemptions on some Canadian products, Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who’s facing a tough re-election battle in Maine, said Friday. The move is an implicit acknowledgement that President Donald… -
Embattled Susan Collins announces exemptions for Maine from Trump Canada tariffsRepublican facing tough re-election battle in state where Trump’s trade war with neighbor has stirred outrage Susan Collins, the embattled Republican senator for Maine, announced that several industries crucial to her state would be… -
DAVID MARCUS: In blue Maine, nobody believes Susan Collins will lose until they see itMaine voters weigh in on Susan Collins' re-election bid against Troy Jackson, revealing why the longtime Republican senator's personal connections could prove decisive. There are two elements of the Senate race in Maine that truly stand… -
U.S. dropping some Canada tariffs, Susan Collins says as trade war looms over Maine Senate raceSen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, announced today that nine categories of products crucial for Maineâs agricultural industries, including blueberry, potato, apple, and seaweed producers, will be exempted from U.S. tariffs on Canada. CNBC's… -
Trump lifts 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods in boon to Maine Sen. Susan CollinsOctober 23, 2026 / 5:32 PM EDT / CBS News President Trump on Friday slashed tariffs on a handful of Canadian products that are used widely by Maine's agricultural industry, a move cheered by Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who is facing a… -
Sen. Rand Paul says DHS, ICE must "restore trust" after Minneapolis shootings of Good, PrettiFebruary 1, 2026 / 7:00 PM EST / CBS News Scott Pelley: Should Secretary Noem be fired? Sen. Rand Paul: I think we have to get through our hearing February 12th, and I think we have to see what the people who work for her say. But my… -
Susan Collins won women in 2020. How they break in 2026 could decide the Maine Senate race.The Republican senator narrowly won among women in 2020 even as they voted against Trump. This year, many are considering supporting Democrat Troy Jackson. LEWISTON, Maine — Tammy Green isn’t sure whom she’ll be supporting in Maine’s hotly… -
AOC campaigns for Troy Jackson in Maine and slams Susan CollinsCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. AOC campaigns for… -
Why Sen. Rand Paul feels like GOP ‘whipping boy’The Kentucky Senator sounds off about the Trump administration’s failure to uphold its foreign policy and Epstein revelation promises. 10/24/2025 12:00 AM EDT Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) is known for being a firebrand when it comes to his…
Related markets
All congress ›Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
11%Thom Tillis
- Thom Tillis11%▼ 1
- Kirsten Gillibrand9%
- Andy Kim8%
12 more
- Jacky Rosen7%
- John Fetterman7%
- Alex Padilla7%
- Raphael Warnock7%▼ 2
- Catherine Cortez Masto7%
- Mike Lee6%▲ 2
- Mark Warner6%
- Josh Hawley6%
- Lisa Blunt Rochester5%
- Rand Paul5%▼ 2
- Jerry Moran5%▼ 1
- Ruben Gallego3%▼ 2
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
9.46%median
-100%100%
Median 9.46%Middle half 7.12% – 11.54%
How many House seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?
239.7median
206254
Median 239.7Middle half 230.7 – 248
Will the SAVE America Act become law?
22%Before Jan 1, 2028
- Before Nov 1, 20261%
- Before Dec 1, 20263%
- Before Jan 1, 20273%▼ 1
2 more
- Before Jul 1, 20275%▼ 2
- Before Jan 1, 202822%▲ 2
Will Ilhan Omar cast a recorded House vote before December? (Before Dec 1, 2026)
75%chance▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions