Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
11%chance▲ 3
Install
How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (10/18-10/24)
The odds
1%At least 1
-860
How the odds have moved
At least 1: 5% on Oct 20, 1% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 1 | 1% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | $50.00 | 32.6K | |
| At least 10 | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 19.9K | ||
| At least 20 | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 35.9K | ||
| At least 40 | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 23.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Senate
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Trump DOJ sues to block Alaska's US Senate race results if the Republican losesThe Trump administration has preemptively filed a lawsuit to block certification of Alaskaâs Senate election, but only if the GOP incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan loses. "A first year law student wouldn't write this complaint," says former… -
Senate Republicans lambaste potential coronavirus dealThe pushback from GOP senators shows just how difficult it will be to approve a new bill. 10/10/2020 1:25 PM EDT Senate Republicans lashed out at a potential framework for a new coronavirus deal between the Trump administration and Speaker… -
Trump DOJ sues to block Alaska US Senate results if Republican incumbent losesThe Trump administration has preemptively filed a lawsuit seeking to block certification of Alaskaâs US Senate election if the Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan loses in the critical contest which could decide the balance of power… -
Trump admin. sues to block Alaska Senate certification if Sen. Dan Sullivan losesOctober 23, 2026 / 11:42 AM EDT / CBS News The Trump administration is suing to block certification of the Alaska Senate race if incumbent GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan does not win reelection — but would have won if votes for the other GOP Alaska… -
Michigan US Senate race is ‘still competitive,’ Democratic congresswoman saysRep. Debbie Dingell, D-Mich., discusses the Michigan U.S. Senate race between GOP nominee Mike Rogers and Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed on ‘The Story.’ Michigan US Senate race is ‘still competitive,’ Democratic congresswoman says Rep… -
Thune campaigns with Ashley Hinson as Senate Republicans view Iowa as a majority-makerOctober 23, 2026 / 10:09 PM EDT / CBS News Sioux City, Iowa — Senate Majority Leader John Thune campaigned with GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson in Iowa on Friday in his latest effort to prop up Republican candidates on the campaign trail… -
WATCH LIVE: Texas Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign concert in AustinDemocrat James Talarico speaks to supporters and hosts a "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" campaign tour concert in Austin, Texas. WATCH LIVE: Texas Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign concert in Austin Democrat James Talarico speaks to… -
Tammy Murphy’s campaign manager leaves after rough start to Senate bid in NJThe shakeup comes ahead of key party conventions. The departure of campaign manager Max Glass comes amid important party conventions and early troubles for New Jersey Senate candidate Tammy Murphy. | Seth Wenig/AP 02/22/2024 5:20 PM EST… -
Susan Collins Touts Canada Tariff Exemptions in Tight Maine Senate RaceOct 23, 2026 at 03:21 PM EDT Republican Senator Susan Collins announced Friday that U.S. tariffs will exempt nine categories of Canadian imports used by Maine agricultural businesses after she pressed the Trump administration for relief… -
Justice Department attempts to block certification of Alaska Senate race if Republican losesPresident Trump is calling into question the integrity of the upcoming Alaska Senate vote, asking the Justice Department to block future certification over possible confusion around the identities of two candidates who share the same name… -
The Latest: Trump administration sues to block possible Democratic win in Alaska Senate raceBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The Trump… -
Trump administration sues to block Alaska Senate certification if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan loses in NovemberBREAKING: Trump administration sues to block Alaska Senate certification if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan loses in November The Justice Department has filed suit against Alaska election officials, seeking to block the results of November’s…
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All congress ›Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
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2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
9.46%median
-100%100%
Median 9.46%Middle half 7.13% – 11.54%
How many House seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?
239.7median
206254
Median 239.7Middle half 230.7 – 248
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22%Before Jan 1, 2028
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2 more
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Will Ilhan Omar cast a recorded House vote before December? (Before Dec 1, 2026)
74%chance▼ 2
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions