What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas?

Kalshi Mentions › Politicians Closed Tue 11:22 AM ET · $544K today · $59K traded · $45K at stake

Settled Transgender, Save America Act, Healthcare

The last odds before it closed

—

✓ Transgender99%▲ 1
✓ Save America Act99%▲ 4
✓ Healthcare99%▲ 2
✓ Dividend / Stimulus99%▲ 2
✓ Farm / Farmer99%▲ 4
✓ Kamala99%▲ 39
✓ Aircraft / Aviation99%▲ 28
✓ Boeing99%▲ 16
✓ Social Security (5+ times)99%▲ 77
✓ Small Business99%▲ 14
✓ Estate Tax / Death Tax99%▲ 6
✓ NATO99%▲ 85

23 more

✓ Water99%▲ 67
✓ Power Plant99%▲ 75
✓ Diesel99%▲ 16
✓ Cattle99%▲ 78
Iran (5+ times)1%▼ 66
Made in America / American Made1%▼ 71
Russia / Ukraine1%▼ 71
Sanctuary1%▼ 56
Windmill1%▼ 39
Veteran1%▼ 61
Electricity1%▼ 25
Bombardier1%▼ 55
Hormuz1%▼ 54
AI / Artificial Intelligence1%▼ 45
Gulf of America1%▼ 57
Ethanol1%▼ 16
Fentanyl1%▼ 23
America First1%▼ 20
Deport / Deported / Deportation1%▼ 20
Fraud (3+ times)1%▼ 10
Ceasefire1%▼ 1
Crypto / Bitcoin1%
Event does not qualify1%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Last odds	Contracts
✓ Transgender	99%	154.2K
✓ Save America Act	99%	72.4K
✓ Healthcare	99%	30.5K
✓ Dividend / Stimulus	99%	32.3K
✓ Farm / Farmer	99%	27.2K
✓ Kamala	99%	18.2K
✓ Aircraft / Aviation	99%	31.7K
✓ Boeing	99%	9.1K
✓ Social Security (5+ times)	99%	33.5K
✓ Small Business	99%	18.6K
✓ Estate Tax / Death Tax	99%	21.7K
✓ NATO	99%	14.0K
✓ Water	99%	60.3K
✓ Power Plant	99%	3.2K
✓ Diesel	99%	11.9K
✓ Cattle	99%	49.0K
✗ Iran (5+ times)	1%	69.8K
✗ Made in America / American Made	1%	18.0K
✗ Russia / Ukraine	1%	27.0K
✗ Sanctuary	1%	18.9K
✗ Windmill	1%	12.8K
✗ Veteran	1%	28.8K
✗ Electricity	1%	6.2K
✗ Bombardier	1%	13.1K
✗ Hormuz	1%	18.5K
✗ AI / Artificial Intelligence	1%	103.5K
✗ Gulf of America	1%	22.4K
✗ Ethanol	1%	13.0K
✗ Fentanyl	1%	26.9K
✗ America First	1%	47.4K
✗ Deport / Deported / Deportation	1%	48.7K
✗ Fraud (3+ times)	1%	43.4K
✗ Ceasefire	1%	119.3K
✗ Crypto / Bitcoin	1%	162.5K
✗ Event does not qualify	1%	18.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Midterm Rally, Kansas

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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1%Kamala

Kamala1%▼ 80
Supreme Court1%▼ 88
AI / Artificial Intelligence1%▼ 28

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Fraud (3+ times)1%▼ 31
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Mentions › Politicians

What will Trump say during his rally in Lubbock, Texas?

95%Cheat / Cheater / Cheating

Cheat / Cheater / Cheating95%▲ 3
Save America Act94%▼ 1
Barack Hussein Obama92%▲ 4

32 more

America First88%▲ 26
Sleepy Joe86%▼ 2
Sanctuary85%▲ 3
Nuclear (3+ times)84%▼ 2
France83%▲ 7
China / Chinese83%▼ 2
ICE82%▼ 4
Iran (5+ times)81%▲ 4
Tariff (3+ times)79%▼ 1
Supreme Court79%▼ 6
Drill Baby Drill76%▲ 8
Hormuz72%▲ 6
Russia / Ukraine72%▼ 5
Made in America / American Made66%▼ 1
Gulf of America65%▼ 9
Kamala64%▼ 13
Data Center51%▲ 16
Blockade48%▼ 13
Electricity39%▼ 19
Israel / Israeli38%▲ 2
Trump Account26%▼ 5
Social Security (5+ times)25%▼ 1
Fraud (3+ times)24%▲ 4
Deport / Deported / Deportation21%▼ 9
Windmill21%▲ 5
AI / Artificial Intelligence19%▼ 16
Fentanyl14%▼ 6
Palestine / Palestinian8%▼ 1
Ceasefire8%▼ 8
Event does not qualify3%▼ 1
Peace in the Middle East2%▼ 1
Crypto / Bitcoin2%

Mentions › Politicians

What will Trump say this week? (Before Oct 26, 2026)

99%Bibi / Netanyahu

Bibi / Netanyahu99%▲ 32
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome3%▼ 28
Autopen / Auto Pen1%▼ 22

14 more

Zohran / Mamdani1%▼ 8
Stupid Question1%▼ 15
Tomahawk1%▼ 16
Houthi1%▼ 10
Golden Dome1%▼ 5
Antifa1%▼ 4
Zacharia<1%▼ 5
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis<1%▼ 7
Crypto / Bitcoin<1%▼ 3
Uranium<1%▼ 4
Peace in the Middle East<1%▼ 5
UFO / UAP<1%▼ 5
Prediction Market / Predictive Market<1%▼ 1
Make Iran Great Again<1%▼ 1

Mentions › Politicians

What will Bernie say during his rally in Michigan?

100%AI / Artificial Intelligence

AI / Artificial Intelligence100%
Billionaire (5+ times)100%
Corrupt / Corruption100%

20 more

Iran / Iranian100%
Housing / Rent100%
Minimum Wage100%
Trump (5+ times)100%
Climate100%
Midterm100%
Robot / Robotic / Robotics100%
Data Center100%
Israel / Netanyahu1%
AIPAC1%
Social Security1%
Crypto / Cryptocurrency1%
China / Chinese1%
Altman1%
Immigrant / Immigration1%
Socialist / Socialism1%
Student Loan / Student Debt1%
Zohran / Mamdani1%
ChatGPT / OpenAI1%
Event does not qualify1%

Mentions › Politicians

What nicknames will Trump say before 2027?

88%Marjorie Traitor Greene

Marjorie Traitor Greene88%▼ 8
Crying Chuck / Cryin Chuck70%▲ 17
Slopadopolous / Slopadopolus70%▲ 1

10 more

Piggy50%
Fat Slob34%▼ 1
Low Energy26%▲ 2
Crazy Nancy25%
Crazy Bernie20%▲ 2
Fake Tapper16%▼ 2
Little Communist14%
Biden Crime Family13%▲ 2
Rocket Man11%▼ 1
Comrade Kamala10%▼ 1

Mentions › Politicians

What will Trump say in October? (Before Nov 1, 2026)

100%Autism

Autism100%
Fat shot / Ozempic21%▼ 10
Antifa20%▼ 5

5 more

UFO / UAP17%▼ 33
Golden Dome14%▼ 4
Peace in the Middle East13%
Peptide7%▼ 3
Make Iran Great Again6%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onABC, Fox News, MSNBC

Trading closesNov 2, 2026 10:00 AM ET

Traded$59K (1,406,350 contracts)

Today$544K

This week$59K

At stake$45K

In the news217 headlines today, 2,129 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Donald Trump says Transgender as part of Midterm Rally in Wichita, Kansas originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Prices it is about

Boeing Company (The)BA · about the company188.35+0.43%

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions