Oscar Winner: Best Original Screenplay (2027)

Kalshi Culture › Awards Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $2 today · $11.2K traded · $5.1K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

54%Wild Horse Nine

Wild Horse Nine54%
The Debut15%
Obsession11%
Digger5%
Fjord3%
Club Kid3%▲ 1
Forgotten Island1%
Josephine1%
Fatherland1%
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth1%
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma1%
A Place in Hell1%

6 more

The Black Ball1%
The Invite1%
Elsinore1%
The Drama1%
Tie1%
The Odyssey<1%

How the odds have moved

Wild Horse Nine: 54% on Oct 20, 54% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Wild Horse Nine	54%		54¢	60¢	$1.67	16.2K
The Debut	15%		15¢	18¢	$5.56	7.2K
Obsession	11%		8¢	15¢	$6.67	4.0K
Digger	5%		2¢	8¢	$12.50	3.3K
Fjord	3%		1¢	5¢	$20.00	2.1K
Club Kid	3%	▲ 1		6¢	$16.67	1.7K
Forgotten Island	1%			2¢	$50.00
Josephine	1%			2¢	$50.00
Fatherland	1%			2¢	$50.00	46.00
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth	1%			2¢	$50.00	19.00
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma	1%			2¢	$50.00	76.00
A Place in Hell	1%			2¢	$50.00	25.00
The Black Ball	1%			2¢	$50.00	88.00
The Invite	1%			2¢	$50.00	3.1K
Elsinore	1%			2¢	$50.00	198
The Drama	1%			2¢	$50.00
Tie	1%			2¢	$50.00
The Odyssey	<1%			1¢	$100.00	237

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Original Screenplay

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Neon joins the Guardian, MK2 on Academy Award-winning directors Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor’s NAZAthe Guardian · 3 days agoDocumentary, produced by James Wilson and executive-produced by Jonathan Glazer, premiered in Venice and won the special jury prize The Guardian’s head of investigations, Paul Lewis, and global head of multimedia, Nicole Jackson, said…
Clayface Just Broke a Comic Book Movie Record & Beat An Academy Award WinnerComicBook.com · 3 days ago(Sr. Writer/Editor) Kofi Outlaw has a B.A. in writing and film studies. He then earned a Master’s Degree in creative writing from The New School in NYC, where he became editor of Screenrant.com when it was just a hobby blog. Kofi…
Zendaya Sets ‘Dune 3’ Oscar Campaign for Best Actress in Category Shake-Up (EXCLUSIVE)Variety · 2 days agoZendaya is “Dune’s” leading lady. Multiple sources tell Variety that Zendaya will campaign for Oscar consideration in the lead actress category for her role as Chani in “Dune: Part Three,” the final chapter of Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi…
Medical Academy Awards N10m Gold Medal to Cardiologist Ogah, inducts 13 fellowsChampion of the Truth. · 3 days agoThe Academy of Medical Sciences of Nigeria has announced a N10 million Gold Medal Award for Professor Okechukwu Samuel Ogah, a cardiologist recognised for his contributions to cardiovascular research, medical education and healthcare in…
Jeon Do-yeon Defined an Era of Korean Cinema. With ‘Possible Love,’ She’s Become an Oscar ContenderThe Hollywood Reporter · 2 days agoThe decorated actor could become the first person from South Korea to be nominated for best actress — fitting, given her remarkable run onscreen: “I almost find myself wondering why it has taken the rest of the world so long to notice…
Screen Brasil Backs International Distribution of Oscar Hopeful ‘Gugu’s World’ and Gramado Winner ‘Our Secret’ (EXCLUSIVE)Variety · 4 days agoThe Embratur and Projeto Paradiso initiative awards $15,000 per film to support theatrical releases in Spain, the U.S. and Canada, with a new funding round set for 2027 Screen Brasil, the leading initiative from Embratur and Projeto…
Red Bull is now F1's “most consistently quick car” says Oscar PiastriYahoo Sports · 3 days agoAfter what was a very successful couple of weekends from Max Verstappen, McLaren's Oscar Piastri believes that Red Bull is now the most consistently fast team on the Formula 1 grid after its recent upgrades rocketed it to the top of the…
Zendaya Mounting Major Best Actress Oscar Campaign for Dune 3Outlook India · 42 h agoThis is a decisive shift from the earlier Dune films that pitched Zendaya in the supporting actress race Zendaya will be campaigning in the Oscars Best Actress race for Dune: Part Three. Denis Villeneuve returns to helm the third and final…
Oscar-winning cinematographer Mauro Fiore calls Nebraska homeKMTV 3 News Now Omaha · 44 h agoELKHORN, Neb. (KMTV) — Filmmaking may be synonymous with Hollywood, but one of the industry's acclaimed cinematographers makes his home right here in Nebraska. Oscar-winning cinematographer Mauro Fiore lives in the Elkhorn area with his…
‘Fighting an impossible fight is the only way to reclaim dignity’: Lee Chang-dong on class warfare and his searing Oscar contenderthe Guardian · 2 days agoThe auteur’s new film – a study of labour, capital and the fallout of redundancy – won the grand jury prize at Venice. Telling tales of the disenfranchised is ‘our moral responsibility’, he saysA quintessential 21st-century horror story: a…
Zendaya to campaign for 'Best Actress' Oscar for ‘Dune: Part Three’ARY News · 42 h agoZendaya will campaign for the “Best Actress” category for her role as Chani in Dune 3 at the Academy Awards. This marked the first change from the “Supporting Actress” category. According to multiple sources cited by Variety, the decision…
Zendaya Sets Best Actress Oscar Campaign for Dune: Part 3IGN · 2 days agoZendaya will reportedly campaign in the Best Actress category for her role as Chani in Dune: Part III in the upcoming Oscars race. “The move marks a shift from the first two films, where she was positioned in supporting actress,” said…

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Culture › Awards

Oscar Winner: Best Picture (2027)

45%The Odyssey

The Odyssey45%
You Can See Everything28%▼ 3
The Black Ball13%

38 more

Dune: Part Three6%
Digger1%
Wild Horse Nine1%
Artificial1%
Project Hail Mary<1%
Disclosure Day<1%
Fjord<1%
The Social Reckoning<1%
Michael<1%
The Entertainment System Is Down<1%
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew<1%
Werwulf<1%
Behemoth<1%
Josephine<1%
Sense and Sensibility<1%
I Love Boosters<1%
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
Avengers: Doomsday<1%
The Death of Robin Hood<1%
The Drama<1%
Ink<1%
All of a Sudden<1%
Cry to Heaven<1%
Tie<1%
1949 / Fatherland<1%
Paper Tiger<1%
Hope<1%
Minotaur<1%
Parallel Tales<1%
Jack of Spades<1%
Obsession<1%
The Debut<1%
Elsinore<1%
The Invite<1%
Club Kid<1%
Being Heumann<1%
Primetime<1%
Tender Loving Care<1%

Culture › Awards

Oscar nominees: Best Documentary Feature Film (2027)

85%NAZA

NAZA85%
You Can See Everything79%▼ 6
Once Upon a Time in Harlem67%▲ 3

7 more

American Doctor64%▲ 1
14th42%▲ 4
Nuisance Bear39%▲ 4
One in a Million34%▲ 6
Musk23%▼ 3
Tutu21%▼ 4
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party20%▼ 1

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Cinematography Nominations

95%The Odyssey

The Odyssey95%▲ 1
Dune: Part Three76%▼ 16
Project Hail Mary62%▼ 2

6 more

Fatherland45%
Werwulf34%▼ 4
Digger34%▲ 6
Obsession17%
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth15%
Josephine10%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations

98%The Odyssey

The Odyssey98%
La Bola Negra96%▲ 1
Wild Horse Nine91%

19 more

Dune: Part Three88%
Project Hail Mary77%
The Debut76%▼ 1
You Can See Everything75%▼ 1
The Invite62%▲ 1
I Play Rocky60%▲ 8
Fjord36%▼ 1
All of a Sudden36%▼ 2
Elsinore31%▲ 1
Obsession31%▼ 2
The Adventures of Cliff Booth24%▲ 1
Behemoth!22%▲ 6
Digger19%
Michael13%▲ 2
Avengers: Doomsday7%
Disclosure Day5%
Fatherland5%
The Drama3%
The Social Reckoning2%▲ 1

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Costume Design Nominations

88%The Odyssey

The Odyssey88%▲ 10
The Black Ball79%▲ 11
Dune: Part Three75%▲ 3

9 more

Sense and Sensibility61%▼ 2
I Love Boosters54%▼ 7
Werwulf48%▲ 1
The Devil Wears Prada 243%▼ 2
Michael40%▲ 3
Wuthering Heights38%▲ 6
Wild Horse Nine28%▲ 8
Digger26%▼ 18
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth22%▲ 1

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Documentary Short Film Nominations

75%The Baddest Speechwriter of All

The Baddest Speechwriter of All75%▲ 4
One Last Order53%▼ 4
Oh Whale53%▲ 9

7 more

Water Cooler48%▲ 19
A Derailment41%▼ 1
Listen39%▲ 11
We're Fine32%▲ 5
A Short Documentary About a Giant Pencil24%▼ 1
The Tuners23%▼ 18
A Wolf in the Suburbs22%▲ 3

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onAcademy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

Trading closesDec 31, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$11.2K (38,409 contracts)

Today$2

This week$803

At stake$5.1K

In the news21 headlines today, 322 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Digger has won Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions