National Book Award for Nonfiction (2026 | Nonfiction)

Kalshi Culture › Awards Closes Nov 18, 2027 · $577 traded · $503 at stake · prices read 3 h ago

The odds

15%Mother Tongue
  • Mother Tongue15%
  • Spawning Season: An Experiment in Queer Parenthood8%
  • Huna: A Memoir of Revolution, Prison, and Becoming4%
  • Let the Poets Govern: A Declaration of Freedom3%
  • The Midnight Special: The Secret Prison History of American Music2%
  • Seasons of Fury: Four Families and the Rise of Islamophobia in America1%
  • Dangerous, Dirty, Violent, and Young: A Fugitive Family in the Revolutionary Underground1%
  • The War Within a War: The Black Struggle in Vietnam and at Home1%
  • The Evolution of Fire: Essays on Crisis and Becoming1%
  • A Dead White: An Argument Against White Paint1%
  • Tie1%

How the odds have moved

Mother Tongue: 15% on Oct 19, 15% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Mother Tongue 15% 1¢ 88¢ $1.14 1.4K
Spawning Season: An Experiment in Queer Parenthood 8% 1¢ 90¢ $1.11 1.9K
Huna: A Memoir of Revolution, Prison, and Becoming 4% 1¢ 33¢ $3.03 1.5K
Let the Poets Govern: A Declaration of Freedom 3% 1¢ 4¢ $25.00 1.3K
The Midnight Special: The Secret Prison History of American Music 2% 1¢ 17¢ $5.88 1.3K
Seasons of Fury: Four Families and the Rise of Islamophobia in America 1% 2¢ $50.00 1.5K
Dangerous, Dirty, Violent, and Young: A Fugitive Family in the Revolutionary Underground 1% 62¢ $1.61 1.7K
The War Within a War: The Black Struggle in Vietnam and at Home 1% 2¢ $50.00 1.5K
The Evolution of Fire: Essays on Crisis and Becoming 1% 2¢ $50.00 1.5K
A Dead White: An Argument Against White Paint 1% 38¢ $2.63 2.2K
Tie 1% 2¢ $50.00 1.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: National Book Award, Nonfiction, Mother Tongue

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