US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
65%October 22
- October 2265%
- October 2465%▲ 2
- October 2865%▲ 1
6 more
- October 3165%▲ 4
- November 865%▲ 2
- November 1565%▲ 1
- November 2265%
- November 3065%▲ 2
- December 3165%
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Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026)
The odds
21%At least 9
- Reaches 921%
- Reaches 108%
- Reaches 126%
- Reaches 144%
- Reaches 164%
- Reaches 204%
- Reaches 252%
Already reached: At least 5, At least 8
How the odds have moved
Reaches 9: 37% on Oct 20, 21% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ At least 5 | 99% | $1.01 | 298 | |||
| ✓ At least 8 | 98% | $1.02 | 12.9K | |||
| At least 9 | 21% | 7¢ | 59¢ | $1.69 | 767 | |
| At least 10 | 8% | ▼ 5 | 49¢ | $2.04 | 4.5K | |
| At least 12 | 6% | ▼ 1 | 4¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 997 |
| At least 14 | 4% | ▼ 1 | 7¢ | $14.29 | ||
| At least 16 | 4% | ▼ 1 | 7¢ | $14.29 | 331 | |
| At least 20 | 4% | 3¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 1.8K | |
| At least 25 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 1.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Iran, Strait of Hormuz
Search ›-
IRGC claims full control over Strait of Hormuz as Trump threatens fresh military strikesIran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Saturday claimed full control over the Strait of Hormuz and warned that it would not allow US military vessels to enter the Persian Gulf. The warning came after President Donald Trump… -
Attacks on commercial shipping in strait of Hormuz hit record high in October| Gulf Times Gulf Times Choose a section, type your search topic and how to match it, and set a date range from the start date to the end date, then press Search. Attacks on commercial shipping in strait of Hormuz hit record high in… -
Iran Asserts Control Over Strait of Hormuz, Claims Oil Tankers Hit MinesIran's IRGC claims full control over the Strait of Hormuz, alleging oil tankers struck mines while navigating unauthorized routes. Iran Asserts Control Over Strait of Hormuz, Claims Oil Tankers Hit Mines Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard… - No offer made to US, no proposal sent to Pakistan mediator on Strait of Hormuz reopening: Iranian Media rejects reportsTehran [Iran], October 25 (ANI): Iran has made no new proposal to Pakistani mediators and rejects a reported offer to US on reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the US naval blockade, the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news…
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US-Israel-Iran War Latest News: ‘Full Control and Surveillance…’ – Iran’s Deputy Army Chief Issues Fresh Strait of Hormuz Warning as EU-GCC Summit in Riyadh Is PostponedThe developments come amid increased attacks on commercial vessels and wider concerns about maritime safety and regional stability. Iran’s deputy army chief, Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari, has warned that the Strait of Hormuz is closed… -
Two oil supertankers explode after hitting mines in Strait of HormuzTwo supertankers attempting to navigate an "unauthorised" route south of the Strait of Hormuz struck naval mimes and exploded on Friday, the navy of Iran's Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) said, following a reported security incident… -
What would happen if Iran attacks submarine cables beneath the Strait of Hormuz?Reconfiguring the future of public service in Bangladesh The Long Summer is coming: are we doing enough to protect our children? Genuine or fake? The verification dilemma behind Bangladesh's K-beauty boom Bangladesh’s new poor: Why growth… -
US blockade in Strait of Hormuz traps $4.5B in Iranian oilTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent details how a U.S. blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has trapped vessels carrying $4.5 billion in Iranian oil. US blockade in Strait of Hormuz traps $4.5B in Iranian oil Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent… -
Massive oil spill washes up on UAE holiday resort after tanker strike near Strait of Hormuz forcing beaches to shutPOPULAR tourist beaches have been closed off after a massive oil spill from a tanker that came under attack near the Strait of Hormuz. Dramatic pictures show burning oil spreading into the sea and washing up on white, sandy beaches along… - Nigerian Bonny Light hits $115 a barrel as Strait of Hormuz attacks surgeNigerian Bonny Light last traded at N115 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate settled at $103 a barrel on supply-side concerns. Higher world Brent prices and increased domestic production remain key drivers of Nigeria’s fiscal receipts…
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Strait of Hormuz Status Today: Ship Attacks Hit Record High in October as Tankers Burn and War Fears MountDUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Attacks on commercial ships in and around the Strait of Hormuz reached a record high in October. The world's most important oil shipping lane remains largely shut, and fears of a wider war are growing. The… -
Iran claims control of Strait of Hormuz, says 2 oil tankers hit mines, warns US warships against Persian Gulf entryIran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has asserted that Tehran retains full control over the Strait of Hormuz and accused two oil supertankers carrying more than 4.5 million barrels of crude oil combined of striking naval mines…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions