What will Mamdani say during NYT DealBook Summit?

Kalshi Mentions › Politicians Closes Dec 2 · $627 today · $1.7K traded · $1.5K at stake · prices read 24 min ago

The odds

84%Afford / Affordable / Affordability
  • Afford / Affordable / Affordability84%
  • Safe / Safer / Safety78%
  • Home / Housing69%
  • Trump / President68%▼ 6
  • Tax58%
  • Childcare / Child Care52%
  • Socialist / Socialism46%▼ 10
  • AI / Artificial Intelligence45%▼ 12
  • Landlord / Tenant43%
  • Midterm / Election43%
  • ICE43%▼ 1
  • Budget / Deficit42%
7 more
  • NYPD36%▼ 9
  • Grocery35%▼ 2
  • Immigrant / Immigration31%▲ 4
  • Wall Street29%▼ 14
  • Free Bus / Fast & Free18%▼ 6
  • Billionaire14%▼ 11
  • Event does not qualify6%▲ 1

How the odds have moved

Afford / Affordable / Affordability: 83% on Oct 19, 84% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Afford / Affordable / Affordability 84% 82¢ 86¢ $1.16 417
Safe / Safer / Safety 78% 65¢ 76¢ $1.32 14.00
Home / Housing 69% 65¢ 73¢ $1.37 222
Trump / President 68% ▼ 6 63¢ 73¢ $1.37 432
Tax 58% 51¢ 62¢ $1.61 50.00
Childcare / Child Care 52% 49¢ 54¢ $1.85 406
Socialist / Socialism 46% ▼ 10 44¢ 48¢ $2.08 205
AI / Artificial Intelligence 45% ▼ 12 43¢ 47¢ $2.13 235
Landlord / Tenant 43% 30¢ 41¢ $2.44 2.00
Midterm / Election 43% 40¢ 46¢ $2.17 22.00
ICE 43% ▼ 1 41¢ 45¢ $2.22 241
Budget / Deficit 42% 39¢ 44¢ $2.27 114
NYPD 36% ▼ 9 32¢ 40¢ $2.50 336
Grocery 35% ▼ 2 30¢ 39¢ $2.56 36.00
Immigrant / Immigration 31% ▲ 4 24¢ 35¢ $2.86 30.00
Wall Street 29% ▼ 14 27¢ 31¢ $3.23 136
Free Bus / Fast & Free 18% ▼ 6 14¢ 22¢ $4.55 162
Billionaire 14% ▼ 11 10¢ 17¢ $5.88 693
Event does not qualify 6% ▲ 1 3¢ 8¢ $12.50 19.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: New York Times DealBook Summit, NYT DealBook Summit, Zohran Mamdani

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99%Bibi / Netanyahu
  • Bibi / Netanyahu99%▲ 32
  • Antifa2%▼ 6
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Mentions › Politicians

What will Bernie say during his rally in Michigan?

100%AI / Artificial Intelligence
  • AI / Artificial Intelligence100%
  • Billionaire (5+ times)100%
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  • Minimum Wage100%
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  • Climate100%
  • Midterm100%
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  • Israel / Netanyahu1%
  • AIPAC1%
  • Social Security1%
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Mentions › Politicians

What will Trump say during his rally in Lubbock, Texas?

96%Cheat / Cheater / Cheating
  • Cheat / Cheater / Cheating96%▲ 3
  • Save America Act94%▼ 1
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32 more
  • America First87%▲ 18
  • Sleepy Joe86%▼ 2
  • Sanctuary85%▲ 2
  • Iran (5+ times)84%▲ 9
  • France83%
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  • Supreme Court77%▼ 9
  • ICE76%▼ 10
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  • Ceasefire8%▼ 7
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Mentions › Politicians

What nicknames will Trump say before 2027?

88%Marjorie Traitor Greene
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10 more
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions