US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
63%October 22
- October 2263%▲ 1
- October 2463%▲ 5
- October 2863%▲ 5
6 more
- October 3163%▼ 1
- November 863%▼ 1
- November 1563%▼ 5
- November 2263%▼ 4
- November 3063%▼ 2
- December 3163%▼ 4
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Will Iran hold a presidential election?
The odds
3%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 4% on Oct 20, 3% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 0¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 48.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Iran
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LARRY KUDLOW: The end is near for IranThat means we’re going to bomb Iran. Immediately after the election. To me, it’s very clear Mr. Trump has no interest in phony Iranian peace discussions or deals. He is well aware of their bad faith that they lie, cheat, and steal their… -
US, Israel prepare renewed strikes on Iran: ReportFox News US, Israel prepare renewed strikes on Iran: Report Fox News correspondent Stephanie Bennett reports on U.S. and Israel drawing up plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the midterm elections. -
Bill Ackman: Iran war has been 'extremely well-executed'CNBC Bill Ackman: Iran war has been 'extremely well-executed' -
Iran puts Trump behind bars in new art installation | CNNA new art installation in Tehran depicts President Donald Trump behind bars, with onlookers shouting commands at the actor inside. CNN’s Leila Gharagozlou reports. CNN had rare access to a jet-powered Russian Geran 4 drone, downed over… -
Sri Lankan PM: Conflicts like the Iran war serve no oneCNN Sri Lankan PM: Conflicts like the Iran war serve no one Richard Quest sits down with Sri Lankan Prime Minister Harini Amarasuriya. -
President Trump considers next steps in Iran war as tensions escalateCNBC President Trump considers next steps in Iran war as tensions escalate -
Iran pushes hard on its nuclear rebuild — daring Trump to strike again“It’s a necessity more important than bread.” That’s how Iran’s rulers regard their drive to acquire nuclear weapons, an activist hard-liner recently declared. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth’s surprise visit to Israel this week, leaks about… -
Democratic Surrogates Campaign, US & Israel Plan Iran Strikes, Tesla SpaceX MergerDemocrats are sending former President Barack Obama and former Vice President Kamala Harris into competitive Senate races to help the party win in Republican territory.NPR has learned the U.S. and Israel are preparing for a possible attack… -
Iran war looms over the midtermsBy MADISON FERNANDEZ with NICK REISMAN and CHRIS SOMMERFELDT 10/21/2026 06:00 AM EDT Presented by Transport Workers Union of America With help from Molly Reinmann HAPPY WEDNESDAY. Madison Fernandez here. On tap, we have a look at how the… -
Persian Gulf oil pollution doubles during Iran war, research finds | CNNOil pollution on the Persian Gulf's surface has doubled because of the war in Iran, according to satellite oceanographers at the University of South Florida. Vessels have been targeted in the Strait of Hormuz for months, and experts fear… -
Revealed: billionaire Reform donor was in business with foundation linked to Iranian regimeNigel Farage’s newest billionaire donor was in business with a powerful Iranian religious foundation under the authority of the country’s supreme leader, raising questions about his past dealings with the hardline republic. Hossein…
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All middle east ›Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
70%October 24
- October 2470%▲ 5
- October 2770%▲ 4
- October 3170%
3 more
- November 1570%▼ 3
- November 3070%▼ 2
- December 3170%▼ 2
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
34%December 31
- March 3129%▼ 3
- October 3129%▼ 1
- November 3029%
1 more
- December 3134%▼ 3
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
6%chance
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
<1%chance
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.