Critics Choice Awards: Best Picture (2027)

Kalshi Culture › Awards Closes Jan 4, 2028 · $7 today · $11K traded · $4.8K at stake · prices read 50 min ago

The odds

50%The Odyssey

The Odyssey50%▲ 1
La Bola Negra12%▼ 2
Dune: Part Three10%
Wild Horse Nine5%
Project Hail Mary1%
The Debut1%
The Invite1%
I Play Rocky1%
Fjord1%
Possible Love1%
Elsinore1%
Club Kid1%

4 more

Tender Loving Care1%
Being Heumann1%
Digger1%
Tie1%

How the odds have moved

The Odyssey: 56% on Oct 20, 50% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
The Odyssey	50%	▲ 1	46¢	54¢	$1.85	17.0K
La Bola Negra	12%	▼ 2	11¢	12¢	$8.33	5.5K
Dune: Part Three	10%		7¢	13¢	$7.69	12.6K
Wild Horse Nine	5%		2¢	8¢	$12.50	3.6K
Project Hail Mary	1%			2¢	$50.00	5.8K
The Debut	1%			1¢	$100.00	2.8K
The Invite	1%			1¢	$100.00	2.8K
I Play Rocky	1%			1¢	$100.00	3.1K
Fjord	1%			1¢	$100.00	3.2K
Possible Love	1%			1¢	$100.00	3.2K
Elsinore	1%			1¢	$100.00	3.2K
Club Kid	1%			1¢	$100.00	3.5K
Tender Loving Care	1%			1¢	$100.00	3.3K
Being Heumann	1%			1¢	$100.00	2.5K
Digger	1%			1¢	$100.00	3.7K
Tie	1%			1¢	$100.00	3.8K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Critics Choice Awards

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Netflix bets on ‘La Bola Negra’ for best picture: On the LotNBC News · 41 h agoIn today’s edition, we’re looking at Netflix’s push for the coveted best picture Oscar in the aftermath of its executive shake-ups, the thirst for a Wicker basket and good news for the “Gleeks.” ... Welcome back to ON THE LOT.
Barossa wine awarded a Wine Spectator Critics’ Choice Award for sixth timeWinetitles · 3 days agoFirst Drop Wines’ Mother’s Milk Shiraz, a wine that retails for just AUD $28, has been honoured with a Wine Spectator Critics’ Choice Award for the sixth time. The 2023 vintage will be recognised in New York City this Thursday, 22 October…
Neon joins the Guardian, MK2 on Academy Award-winning directors Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor’s NAZAthe Guardian · 3 days agoDocumentary, produced by James Wilson and executive-produced by Jonathan Glazer, premiered in Venice and won the special jury prize The Guardian’s head of investigations, Paul Lewis, and global head of multimedia, Nicole Jackson, said…
‘You Can See Everything’ locks up the youth vote for Best Picture. Can the buzz bridge the Oscar generation gap?Gold Derby · 39 h ago"I'm so excited to see this movie — it has one of the highest scores ever on Letterboxd." Right now, the awards conversation has Obsession and You Can See Everything positioned as Best Picture contenders, with Fielder and Oppenheim's film…
‘You Can See Everything’ Is Closing In on ‘The Odyssey’ in the Best Picture Race, and It Could Make Oscar HistoryComic Basics · 2 days agoAwards season usually builds slowly, with a frontrunner emerging in the summer and rivals chipping away through the fall. This year the Best Picture odds have taken a wild turn. A race that looked like a coronation for one of the year’s…
2027 Oscars: The Odyssey Leads Best Picture Race as Major Rivals Emerge@analyticsinme · 3 days agoAnalytics Insight The Race BeginsThe race for the 2027 Oscars is gathering momentum, with Hollywoodâs biggest productions and ambitious international films competing for Best Picture recognition Early predictions point to a compelling…
Why ‘You Can See Everything’ Can Win Best Picture at the OscarsVariety · 5 days agoThe Elizabeth Holmes doc "You Can See Everything" is almost certain to nail a best picture nomination at the Oscars. Here’s why it could win. Why ‘You Can See Everything’ Can Win Best Picture at the Oscars The word disruptor is a vividly…
‘You Can See Everything’ Sets Oscar Campaigns for Best Picture, Supporting Actress and More CategoriesVariety · 6 days agoSPOILER ALERT: This article contains major spoilers for “You Can See Everything,” now playing in theaters. “You Can See Everything” may rewrite the rules of the Oscar season. Christopher Abbott, who also appears in the film as Holmes’…
Jaafar Jackson to Receive Critics Choice Award for ‘Michael’MJVibe · 4 days agoJaafar Jackson continues to receive recognition for his portrayal of his uncle, Michael Jackson, in the biographical film Michael. The actor has been announced as one of the honorees at the 9th annual Critics Choice Association’s…
Clayface Just Broke a Comic Book Movie Record & Beat An Academy Award WinnerComicBook.com · 3 days ago(Sr. Writer/Editor) Kofi Outlaw has a B.A. in writing and film studies. He then earned a Master’s Degree in creative writing from The New School in NYC, where he became editor of Screenrant.com when it was just a hobby blog. Kofi…
‘Moonlight’ Turns 10: Tarell Alvin McCraney on the Film’s Lasting Legacy and That Best Picture Mix-UpIndieWire · 3 days agoThe word playwright and screenwriter Tarell Alvin McCraney uses to describe his thoughts on the journey his deeply personal film “Moonlight” continues to have is “incredible.” Wednesday, October 21, marks 10 years since the Best Picture…
Why ‘You Can See Everything’ Will Struggle To Enter The Oscars’ Best Picture RaceForbes · 4 days agoIts commercial success is matched by extraordinary reviews, putting the film in the conversation for a Best Picture nomination. But the bigger question is not whether You Can See Everything has the momentum to make history. It is whether…

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Anne Hathaway88%
Penélope Cruz77%
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Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner

44%The Odyssey

The Odyssey44%▲ 1
You Can See Everything27%
La Bola Negra14%▲ 1

24 more

Dune: Part Three7%▼ 1
Digger4%▲ 1
Wild Horse Nine1%
Artificial<1%
Project Hail Mary<1%
The Invite<1%
Tony<1%
The Drama<1%
Behemoth!<1%
Josephine<1%
Fjord<1%
The Social Reckoning<1%
The Debut<1%
Obsession<1%
I Play Rocky<1%
Elsinore<1%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
Saturn Return<1%
All of a Sudden<1%
Clarissa<1%
Disclosure Day<1%
Fatherland<1%
Michael<1%
Avengers: Doomsday<1%

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Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations

90%Matt Damon

Matt Damon90%▼ 4
Andrew Scott85%
John Malkovich85%▼ 4

16 more

Tom Cruise51%▼ 13
John Turturro47%▲ 4
Ryan Gosling45%▼ 3
Robert Pattinson44%▼ 1
Anthony Ippolito41%▲ 10
Sebastian Stan19%
Jaafar Jackson18%▲ 2
Pedro Pascal16%
Timothée Chalamet11%▼ 2
Sam Rockwell7%▲ 1
Josh O'Connor5%
Adam Driver5%
Javier Bardem4%
Brad Pitt4%▼ 1
Robert Aramayo3%
Jeremy Strong2%▲ 1

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Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations

98%The Odyssey

The Odyssey98%
La Bola Negra96%▲ 1
Wild Horse Nine91%▼ 1

19 more

Dune: Part Three88%
Project Hail Mary77%
The Debut77%
You Can See Everything76%▼ 6
I Play Rocky61%▲ 18
The Invite61%
All of a Sudden37%▼ 1
Fjord34%▼ 3
Obsession31%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth23%▼ 1
Elsinore23%▼ 8
Digger19%
Behemoth!19%
Michael11%
Avengers: Doomsday7%
Disclosure Day5%
Fatherland5%
The Drama3%
The Social Reckoning2%▲ 1

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Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Nominations

91%The Debut

The Debut91%▲ 7
Wild Horse Nine89%▼ 5
Club Kid59%▲ 1

15 more

Obsession51%▼ 18
Fjord48%
Elsinore34%▲ 9
The Drama21%▲ 1
Behemoth!21%▼ 3
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma20%▲ 4
Digger13%▼ 1
Josephine11%▲ 2
Fatherland6%▼ 1
Forgotten Island5%▲ 2
The Odyssey4%
A Place in Hell4%
The Invite4%
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The Black Ball2%

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Oscars 2027: Best Cinematography Nominations

95%The Odyssey

The Odyssey95%▲ 1
Dune: Part Three76%▼ 16
Project Hail Mary63%▼ 5

6 more

Werwulf45%▲ 19
Fatherland45%▲ 3
Digger24%▼ 5
Obsession19%▲ 5
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth15%
Josephine10%▼ 2

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onCritics Choice Awards

Trading closesJan 4, 2028 10:00 AM ET

Traded$11K (79,414 contracts)

Today$7

At stake$4.8K

In the news27 headlines today, 342 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If The Odyssey has won Best Picture at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.