When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA? (Before Feb 2028)

Kalshi Politics › Congress Closes Jan 31, 2028 · $13 today · $5.7K traded · $2.2K at stake · prices read 71 min ago

The odds

37%Before Feb 1, 2028

Before Dec 1, 20267%▼ 1
Before Jan 1, 202736%▼ 1
Before Apr 1, 202736%
Before Aug 1, 202737%▼ 1
Before Feb 1, 202837%

How the odds have moved

Before Dec 1, 2026: 7% on Oct 20, 7% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Dec 1, 2026	7%	▼ 1	5¢	9¢	$11.11	4.0K
Before Jan 1, 2027	36%	▼ 1	35¢	39¢	$2.56	3.6K
Before Apr 1, 2027	36%		31¢	39¢	$2.56	4.3K
Before Aug 1, 2027	37%	▼ 1	36¢	38¢	$2.63	5.7K
Before Feb 1, 2028	37%		32¢	40¢	$2.50	1.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: FDA, Heidi Overton, Commissioner

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr. news - Today’s latest updatesCBS News · 22 h agoZach Lahn, the Republican candidate for governor in Iowa, told "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan" that he believes the state's "farmers understand that for a long time they have been treated as price takers, and really the deck has…
Guest Column: Bill Cassidy should block FDA’s evasive nomineeThe Advocate · 2 days agoSen. Bill Cassidy, R-Baton Rouge, talks with Dr. Heidi Overton before her nomination hearing to become the commissioner of Food and Drug Administration at the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee on Capitol Hill…
Feud between DA Larry Krasner and Philadelphia police commissioner heats upCBS News · 31 h agoCBS News Philadelphia is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KYW-TV and channel 3, CBS News Philadelphia offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Feud…
FDA issues warning letters to five unapproved GLP-1 websitespharmaphorum · 3 days agoThe home page for Peak Performance Peptides, one of the companies to receive an FDA letter. The US FDA issued similar warning letters to five different online peptide vendors on 24th August, giving the companies 15 days to respond to…
Philadelphia DA fires back at police commissioner in feud over officer's killingCBS News · 35 h agoOctober 23, 2026 / 8:34 PM EDT / CBS Philadelphia Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner fired back at Police Commissioner Kevin Bethel Friday as a war of words between them over the killing of a police officer escalates. The feud…
The FDA says there’s no estrogen patch shortage. Women are struggling to fill prescriptions.NBC News · 40 h agoEstrogen patches are the most commonly reported shortage in the U.S., but the FDA says it’s working to boost supply. Women across the country are still struggling to fill prescriptions for estrogen patches.
FDA issues recall over compounded GLP-1 weight loss drugsFox News · 3 days agoFox News contributor Dr. Stephanie Widmer discusses the recall of certain compounded GLP-1 medications over sterility concerns. FDA issues recall over compounded GLP-1 weight loss drugs Fox News contributor Dr. Stephanie Widmer discusses…
Police yet to receive £2m after A66 crash, says commissionerBBC News · 3 days agoSeven people including two police officers were killed in the crash on the A66 in the early hours of 22 August A police force has still not received the £2m it was promised by the government in the wake of a car crash that led to the…
MDMA-assisted therapy could get FDA approval as soon as January, top advocate predicts — but there’s a major problem loomingNew York Post · 41 h agoA drug once synonymous with rave culture could soon be making its way into a very different setting: the therapist’s office. A leading psychedelics advocate is “very optimistic” the Food and Drug Administration could approve MDMA-assisted…
FULTON COUNTY COMMISSIONERS: Commissioners Hear Concerns Over Swan Creek Ditch ChangesThe Village Reporter · 22 h agoThe Fulton County Commissioners held their meeting on Thursday, October 22. The meeting began at 9:00 a.m. with the Pledge of Allegiance and an opening prayer. Commissioners then moved through county business before holding a public…
FDA has finalized its guidance on apps related to drugsSTAT · 3 days agoSTAT is a media company focused on finding and telling compelling stories about health, medicine, and scientific discovery. We produce daily news, investigative articles, and narrative projects in addition to multimedia features, podcasts…
Philadelphia Police Commissioner Bethel slams DA Krasner for comments after officer's shooting deathCBS News · 2 days agoPhiladelphia Police Commissioner Kevin Bethel criticized District Attorney Larry Krasner for his comments about an alleged botched police investigation into Eric Lewis in 2019. Lewis is accused of shooting and killing officer Shane Seiber…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onU.S. Senate

Trading closesJan 31, 2028 11:59 PM ET

Traded$5.7K (18,787 contracts)

Today$13

This week$32

At stake$2.2K

In the news49 headlines today, 813 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Heidi Overton is the first person confirmed as Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.