Fed Decision in October?
94%No change
- No change94%▼ 2
- 25 bps increase6%▲ 2
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
Install
China strategic oil inventories in Q3 2026
The odds
1,459median
1,3501,650
Median 1,459Middle half 1,411 – 1,499
How the odds have moved
Median: 1,460 on Oct 19, 1,459 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1,400 million barrels | 81% | 76¢ | 85¢ | $1.18 | 105 | |
| Above 1,450 million barrels | 56% | 51¢ | 60¢ | $1.67 | 34.00 | |
| Above 1,500 million barrels | 25% | 20¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 166 | |
| Above 1,550 million barrels | 5% | 1¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | ||
| Above 1,600 million barrels | 4% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 234 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: China, Taiwan
Search ›-
CNBC's The China Connection newsletter: The 'cliff' beneath China's citiesHi, this is Anniek, writing to you from Singapore, with Evelyn, who reported from the Bund Summit in Shanghai last week. Welcome to the latest edition of The China Connection — a snapshot of what we are seeing and hearing from China… -
Taiwan seafood products enter the Chinese mainland marketI came here from Taiwan over 30 years ago to sell squid. We've all witnessed Xiamen's development. This time, I've brought high-quality seafood products from Taiwan, including giant grouper, ... Taiwan seafood products enter the Chinese… -
Typhoon Champi kills one and injures more than 500 in Taiwan as it heads to ChinaSuper typhoon weakening but large parts of Taiwan, including Taipei, still mostly closed and flights cancelled Typhoon Champi swept past Taiwan on Saturday killing one person, injuring more than 500, and uprooting trees and severing power… -
Nausėda: Lithuania-China diplomatic ties should not hinge on Taiwan office nameLithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said restoring full diplomatic representation between Lithuania and China should not be directly linked to changing the name of Taiwan’s representative office in Vilnius, stressing that normalising… -
Taiwan rebuffs China's commemorations for post-World War Two 'restoration' of islandTAIPEI, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Taiwan's defence minister on Tuesday said China was waging "cognitive warfare" after Beijing marked the anniversary of Japan's handover of the island to Chinese rule with satellite images of Taipei and a military… -
China Versus Taiwan: 2 Educators Reflect on Learning, Critical Thinking, and Social ValuesTwo veteran educators from mainland China have drawn considerable attention online after recently sharing candid reflections on their visits to Taiwan. Their accounts contrasted the island’s open classroom discussions and everyday civic… -
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American And Chinese Aircraft Carriers Could Cross Paths As Tensions Rise Near TaiwanChina’s Liaoning aircraft carrier strike group is heading toward waters where an American supercarrier is conducting massive military exercises alongside allied warships. (ANTHONY WALLACE/AFP via Getty Images) The Chinese formation reached… -
Western luxury falters in ChinaWestern luxury brands have lost roughly $280 billion in value this year as Chinese consumers spend more on domestic products but less overall. Chinese producers are increasingly competing with Western challengers not only on price but on… -
China’s local government spending stifled by fear of accountabilityEurasia Group's Dan Wang argues that Beijing's high-tech and export-led growth model makes a return to aggressive consumption stimulus unlikely. Meanwhile, fear of accountability is discouraging local officials from deploying available… -
Bonds & China stocks offer value, scrutiny of US AI monetization growsIndosuez Wealth Management's Francis Tan discusses ways to balance portfolio as AI euphoria continues. He adds that the weakness in Chinese markets lately is largely driven by poor investor sentiment still dragged by property downturn… -
China industrial profits post strongest growth in three months, rising 14.4%China's industrial profits grew at their strongest pace since June, as a boom in manufacturing tied to artificial intelligence offset drag from persistently weak domestic demand. Profits at large industrial firms rose 14.4% last month from… -
China and Russia are redrawing Arctic trade. Can Europe fight back?China and Russia are tightening their grip on Arctic shipping routes, turning the rapidly warming region into a new geopolitical battleground with Europe. Moscow and Beijing last week have agreed to expand freight traffic along Arctic…
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All economy ›How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
96%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)96%
- 1 (25 bps)2%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
10 more
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Fed Decision in December?
75%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase75%▼ 1
- No change21%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase3%
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
- 25 bps decrease1%
Bank of Canada Decision in October?
84%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase84%▲ 2
- No Change16%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
South Dakota corn yield in 2026
151.6median
120185
Median 151.6Middle half 146.7 – 156.9
30Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?
4.67%median
1.74%8.24%
Median 4.67%Middle half 3.65% – 6.19%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions