Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
Oct 26, 2 AM ETSafe / Safer / Safety: 81% → 88%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
Safe / Safer / Safety
88%
▲ 7
84¢
91¢
$1.10
127
Astra
63%
▼ 2
62¢
64¢
$1.56
Compute
62%
57¢
67¢
$1.49
Regulation / Regulate / Regulatory
62%
▲ 1
57¢
67¢
$1.49
10.00
China / Chinese
52%
40¢
51¢
$1.96
100
AGI
48%
▼ 10
48¢
59¢
$1.69
142
Valuation / IPO
46%
31¢
45¢
$2.22
107
Data Center
43%
30¢
42¢
$2.38
110
Privacy
42%
37¢
47¢
$2.13
Open Source
38%
35¢
46¢
$2.17
102
Elon / Grok
33%
26¢
37¢
$2.70
67.00
Nvidia
32%
27¢
37¢
$2.70
IP / Intellectual Property
32%
21¢
32¢
$3.13
100
Hugging Face
21%
▼ 26
33¢
45¢
$2.22
349
Nuclear
19%
14¢
24¢
$4.17
Event does not qualify
6%
1¢
10¢
$10.00
10.00
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: New York Times DealBook Summit, NYT DealBook Summit, Sam Altman
Sam Altman’s OpenAI eyes $30B fundraising round ahead of looming IPO: reportNew York Post · 3 days agoSam Altman’s OpenAI is reportedly wrapping up a fundraising round that would value the company well above $1 trillion as it mulls when to go public. The ChatGPT maker is raising up to $30 billion at a $1.25 trillion valuation, CNBC…
Texas sues OpenAI, Sam Altman over product safetyPOLITICO · 2 days agoThe state’s attorney general in court documents alleges OpenAI falsely marketed ChatGPT as safe and that it has harmed Texans, including children. 10/23/2026 4:39 PM EDT Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton on Friday launched a lawsuit…
Sam Altman: AI will make coders busier, not replace themthehansindia.com · 3 days agoOpenAI CEO Sam Altman says AI will transform coding jobs, helping developers work faster while taking on more projects and responsibilities. Artificial intelligence is rapidly changing workplaces, and the rise of AI tools has fuelled…
Will AI Replace Coders? OpenAI CEO Sam Altman Has an AnswerMashable India · 3 days agoOpenAI CEO Sam Altman says AI may increase demand for coding jobs despite growing concerns about AI replacing programmers and ongoing tech layoffs. Will AI Replace Coders? OpenAI CEO Sam Altman Has an Answer OpenAI CEO Sam Altman believes…
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton sues OpenAI and Sam Altman over ChatGPT safety claimsCrypto Briefing · 2 days agoThe Collin County lawsuit alleges OpenAI misled users about ChatGPT's risks and failed to protect children from harm OpenAI / Wikimedia Commons (Public domain) Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has sued OpenAI and its CEO Sam Altman. He…
Sam Altman warns AI models can find flaws that simple patches cannot fixCrypto Briefing · 3 days agoOpenAI's CEO says frontier models are surfacing vulnerabilities outside known threat models as the company hires a Head of Preparedness OpenAI official logo (public domain, Wikimedia Commons) — CryptoBriefing brand treatment Sam Altman…
Judge dismisses Sam Altman’s sister’s sexual abuse lawsuitThe Verge · 5 days agoThe Verge Ann Altman’s lawsuit against her brother was dismissed with prejudice, meaning it can’t be refiled. When the case was filed last year, a statement shared by Sam Altman, his mother, and his brothers said, “Annie has made deeply…
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman wins dismissal of sister's lawsuitBBC News · 6 days agoOpenAI chief executive Sam Altman has won a dismissal of a lawsuit brought against him by his sister that claimed he had sexually abused her more than two decades ago. A US district judge dismissed the case after Ann Altman had refused to…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions
