Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?

Polymarket World › Middle East Closes Nov 30 · $535 today · $23.4K traded · $3.6K at stake · prices read 11 min ago

The odds

40%November 30

October 314%▼ 11
November 3040%▲ 1

How the odds have moved

October 31: 17% on Oct 20, 4% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 26, 4 PM ETOctober 31: 16% → 4%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
September 15	<1%		0¢	6¢	$17.24	$1.9K
September 30	<1%	▼ 4		0¢		$10.7K
October 31	4%	▼ 11	2¢	6¢	$16.67	$8.4K
November 30	40%	▲ 1	37¢	43¢	$2.33	$2.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Iran, United Arab Emirates

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United Arab Emirates: economic indicatorsIndexBox · 2 days agoThe United Arab Emirates' economy grew 6.2%, and consumer prices rose 1.3% in 2025, according to the IMF. Unemployment stood at 2.2% (World Bank) and government debt came in at 33.9% of GDP in 2025 (IMF). Sources: World Bank, IMF and 4…
The United Arab Emirates@CSIS · 4 days agoPolitical, economic, and security trends in the United Arab Emirates Commentary by Mona Yacoubian — March 27, 2026 The CSIS Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department invites you to a live episode of State of Play to explore the future of…
Lana Nusseibeh, Minister of the United Arab Emirates, candidate to succeed Guterres at the helm of the UNELMUNDOAMERICA · 4 days agoEl Mundo America Lana Nusseibeh, Minister of the United Arab Emirates, candidate to succeed Guterres at the helm of the UN The process started months ago, but none of the previous eight candidates had managed to reach a consensus or…
MarketRank Names Ryze AI the Best SEO Tool for Shopify Brands in the United Arab Emirates for 2026openPR.com · 5 days agoThe 2026 award for Shopify SEO went to a single autonomous system chosen over the app store add ons that each handle one task DUBAI October 21 2026 MarketRank the independent marketing technology rating program has named Ryze AI the…
MarketRank Names Ryze AI's AI Autopilot the Best AI Tool for Managing Google Ads in the United Arab Emirates for 2026openPR.com · 5 days agoThe 2026 Google Ads management award went to the only finalist that runs campaigns on its own rather than recommending changes for an operator to apply DUBAI October 21 2026 MarketRank the independent marketing technology rating program…
United Arab Emirates Keynote Speaker: UAE #1 Scott Steinbergfuturistsspeakers.com · 5 days agoThe UAE provides an especially compelling environment for future-focused speaking. Its commitment the best United Arab Emirates futurist and keynote speaker pros say to innovation, digital transformation, artificial intelligence, economic…
United Arab Emirates Food Products Market Size and Share - Growth Analysis and Forecast 2026-2035 | USD 38 Billion Opportunity Driven by Food-Tech and Digital CommerceYahoo Finance · 5 days agoDublin, Oct. 22, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- "United Arab Emirates Food Products Market Size and Share - Growth Analysis Report and Forecast Trends (2026-2035)" has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering. The United Arab Emirates…
United Arab Emirates announces national commitments to advance evidence-based integrative medicinewho.int · 5 days agoDr Ahmed Alosi; Dr Thekra Mohamed; Dr Geetha Krishnan G. Pillai.©WHOAt the Al Shifaa Summit for Integrative Medicine in Abu Dhabi, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) set out four national commitments aligned with the WHO Global Traditional…
Volkanovski-Evloev Featherweight Championship At UFC 333, Abu Dhabi, United Arab EmiratesFightNews · 5 days agoBy Gabriel F. Cordero This Saturday, October 24, UFC 333 will take place in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The main event will feature Australian Alexander Volkanovski defending his featherweight championship against Russia’s Movsar…
Barcelona v Deportivo Alaves | Goal.com United Arab Emirates@goal · 5 days agoLatest news, stats and live commentary for the LaLiga's meeting between Barcelona v Deportivo Alaves on the 2 February 2025 Help us verify your age by providing an honest response. This site contains gambling advertising for 24+. You’re…
Athletic Bilbao v Deportivo Alaves | Goal.com United Arab Emirates@goal · 5 days agoLatest news, stats and live commentary for the LaLiga's meeting between Athletic Bilbao v Deportivo Alaves on the 19 September 2026 Help us verify your age by providing an honest response. This site contains gambling advertising for 24+…
United Arab Emirates Women Under-19s Cricket Team | UAE-W News, Matches, Results, Squad | CricinfoCricinfo · 5 days agoFind United Arab Emirates Women Under-19s Cricket Team news, match schedule, results, photos, and videos on Cricinfo. Stay updated with the UAE-W Team performances. United Arab Emirates Women Under-19s Cricket Team News & Matches…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesNov 30, 2026 2:59 PM ET

Traded$23.4K

Today$535

This week$2.5K

At stake$3.6K

In the news460 headlines today, 4,463 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets the United Arab Emirates through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Gulf Standard Time (GST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at the United Arab Emirates. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; S

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions