Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by...?

Polymarket World › Middle East Closes Sat 11:59 PM ET · $252 today · $50K traded · $1.2K at stake · prices read 26 min ago

The odds

9%October 31

October 319%

How the odds have moved

October 31: 10% on Oct 20, 9% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
August 31	<1%	▼ 4		0¢		$28.3K
September 30	<1%	▼ 3		0¢		$13.6K
October 31	9%		7¢	10¢	$10.00	$8.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Iranian Ambassador

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Uzbekistan Summons Iranian Ambassador Over Samarkand PostsUzDaily.uz · 2 days agoTashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned Iranian Ambassador to Uzbekistan Mohammad Ali Eskandari on 23 October and handed him a note of protest, the ministry’s press service said on Instagram…
Trump weighs Iran deal or further action, Qatar pushes diplomacyIran International · 26 h agoA renewed diplomatic push to avert another round of the US-Iran war gathered pace on Sunday, with Qatari mediators in Tehran as President Donald Trump publicly weighed reaching an agreement with the Islamic Republic against taking further…
Sri Lanka rescues 40 Iranian sailors from ships off its coastThe Independent · 16 h agoThis is the second time this year that Sri Lanka has rescued Iranian sailors Sri Lanka has coordinated the rescue of 40 Iranian sailors from 19 commercial ships in international waters off its coast, its foreign ministry said. The sailors…
Iran Says Pakistan Border Open as LPG Trucks Face Clearance DelaysPakistan Observer · 35 h agoIran has clarified that its border with Pakistan remains open and that no restrictions have been imposed on the export of Iranian goods, including liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), to Pakistan. Iranian Ambassador to Pakistan Reza Amiri…
Uzbekistan is annoyed by Iran's statements — Tehran's ambassador was summoned to the country's Foreign MinistryEADaily · 37 h agoIranian Ambassador to Tashkent Muhammad Ali Iskandari was summoned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, where he was handed a protest note expressing Uzbekistan's principled position. As the press secretary of the Ministry of…
Iran says border with Pakistan open, LPG exports face no restrictionsGeo News · 37 h agoPublished October 25, 2026 Iran has said its border with Pakistan remains open and there are currently no restrictions on the export of Iranian goods, including liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), to the country. Iranian Ambassador to Pakistan…
Iran denies border closure reports, says trade with Pakistan continuesBrecorder · 37 h agoIran denies closing its borders to Pakistan, attributing cargo disruptions, particularly LPG shipments, to Pakistan's new import documentation procedures, with ongoing talks to resolve the issue. Iran has denied reports that it has closed…
CAM weekly antisemitism report – France riots brings rise in antisemitic conspiracy theoriesThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 40 h agoThe latest Global Antisemitism Report highlights 129 new incidents of antisemitism monitored worldwide by the Antisemitism Research Center (ARC) by CAM during the past week. Broken down by ideological categories, 37.2% of the incidents…
Speakers call for Muslim unity, caution against wider regional conflict at FIGS seminarPakistan Observer · 47 h agoSpeakers at a seminar organised by the Forum of Information Group Secretaries (FIGS) on Saturday called for greater unity and defence cooperation Speakers at a seminar organised by the Forum of Information Group Secretaries (FIGS) on…
Iran envoy details agenda of Pezeshkian's visit to RussiaMehr News Agency · 2 days agoTEHRAN, Oct. 24 (MNA) – Iran's ambassador to Russia, Kazem Jalali, has detailed the programs of the President Masoud Pezeshkian's upcoming visit to Russia. Iranian Ambassador to Russia Kazem Jalali announced to RIA Novosti that Iranian…
'Cowards Messed Everything Up': Iran President Blames US For Deal Collapse, Seeks Fresh TalksTimesNow · 2 days agoIranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Saturday blamed the United States for the failure of an interim deal with Iran. He, however, said there should be a new attempt at concluding it. Meanwhile, Iran's ambassador to Islamabad, Ambassador…
Iran deploys forces to Kurdish regions amid fears of renewed war with Israel, USThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 4 days agoIran has deployed artillery and additional heavy weaponry to its northwestern Kurdish regions bordering Iraq as it intensifies its crackdown on the Iranian Kurdish opposition group Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK). Recent clashes have been…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesOct 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$50K

Today$252

This week$629

At stake$1.2K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the countr

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions