The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
Anthropic
93%
93¢
95¢
$1.05
$69K
OpenAI
3%
1¢
6¢
$16.95
$18.3K
Google
3%
▲ 2
1¢
5¢
$19.61
$6.1K
Moonshot
2%
1¢
3¢
$37.04
$5.4K
Meta
1%
0¢
3¢
$38.46
$4.1K
DeepSeek
1%
0¢
1¢
$90.91
$1.5K
Alibaba
<1%
0¢
1¢
$4.8K
Z.ai
<1%
0¢
$2K
SpaceXAI
<1%
0¢
$1.5K
ByteDance
<1%
0¢
$1.4K
MiniMax
<1%
0¢
$387
Xiaomi
<1%
0¢
$697
Thinky
<1%
0¢
$835
Tencent
<1%
0¢
$1.4K
Poolside
<1%
0¢
$727
Mistral
<1%
0¢
$771
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: AI model, artificial intelligence, Code Arena WebDev AI
Anthropic sued for allegedly using 274 Elvis Presley songs to train AI modelsthe Guardian · 27 h agoAuthentic Brands Group says AI company infringed on rights of songs by the King such as Can’t Help Falling in Love Authentic Brands Group, the licensing organization that has ownership of both Presley’s music and likeness, is accusing…
NSF State and Regional Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Hubs Webinar@NSF · 21 h agoThe NSF State and Regional Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Hubs program aims to expand access to the computing resources needed for AI-enabled scientific discovery and strengthen research, education, and workforce development at…
Hobbyists Are Squeezing Trillion-Parameter AI Models Onto LaptopsStartup Fortune · 17 h agoJanet Harrison has over 16 years experience in the financial services industry giving her a vast understanding of how news affects the financial markets, and an early adopter of blockchain technology and digital currencies. Janet is an…
When art, music, artificial intelligence meet at Istanbul's AKMDaily Sabah · 35 h agoIstanbul’s Atatürk Cultural Centre (AKM) recently hosted a special evening that brought together art, music, architecture and technology. The event marked a significant anniversary for Limak, but its atmosphere extended beyond a corporate…
Lightweight AI model spots tiny grape leaf diseases on mobile devicesBIOENGINEER.ORG · 23 h agoResearchers report a lightweight YOLOv10n-based detector that cuts model size and computation by roughly a third while maintaining near-baseline accuracy in detecting small grape leaf disease lesions. Subject of Research: A lightweight…
From 430 MB to 13 MB: Building an Offline AI Model for Indian GST InvoicesDEV Community · 21 h agoWe built Tiny GST, a compact AI model designed to extract structured data from Indian GST invoices directly on-device. The goal is simple: reduce cloud costs, protect sensitive invoice data, and make invoice processing work even in…
Artificial intelligence played alone on a virtual island and got better at testsDEV Community · 30 h agoResearchers tested 13 AI agents controlled by Claude Opus 4.7 on virtual islands with no assigned tasks. Over 30-hour runs with hourly resets and persistent memory, agents independently built structures and invented games, with experienced…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions
