Brazil Presidential Election
>99%Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva>99%▲ 82
- Flávio Bolsonaro<1%▼ 83
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Lima Mayoral Election Winner
The odds
77%Rafael López Aliaga
- Rafael López Aliaga77%▼ 2
- Francis James Allison Oyague5%▲ 3
- Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca<1%
- Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli<1%
- Santiago Rosendo Abarca León<1%
- Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo<1%
- Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera<1%
- Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino<1%
- Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra<1%
- Sandro Caller Gutiérrez<1%
- Jessica Viviana Linares Romero<1%
- Rubén José Ramírez Mateo<1%
11 more
- Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay<1%
- Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés<1%
- Flor de María Hurtado Valdez<1%
- Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar<1%
- Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza<1%
- Samuel Marcos Daza Taype<1%
- Segundo Valdez Zavala<1%
- Samir Frank Quispe Caballero<1%
- Yehude Simón Munaro<1%
- Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué<1%
- Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega<1%
How the odds have moved
Rafael López Aliaga: 87% on Oct 20, 77% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael López Aliaga | 77% | ▼ 2 | 73¢ | 80¢ | $1.24 | $185K |
| Francis James Allison Oyague | 5% | ▲ 3 | 1¢ | 8¢ | $12.66 | $169K |
| Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca | <1% | 1¢ | $96.5K | |||
| Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli | <1% | 0¢ | $15K | |||
| Santiago Rosendo Abarca León | <1% | 0¢ | $2.9K | |||
| Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo | <1% | 0¢ | $9.9K | |||
| Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera | <1% | 0¢ | $18K | |||
| Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino | <1% | 0¢ | $1.7K | |||
| Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra | <1% | 0¢ | $1.8K | |||
| Sandro Caller Gutiérrez | <1% | 0¢ | $2.1K | |||
| Jessica Viviana Linares Romero | <1% | 0¢ | $1.9K | |||
| Rubén José Ramírez Mateo | <1% | 0¢ | $2.4K | |||
| Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay | <1% | 0¢ | $2.4K | |||
| Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés | <1% | 0¢ | $1.7K | |||
| Flor de María Hurtado Valdez | <1% | 0¢ | $1.9K | |||
| Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar | <1% | 0¢ | $2.5K | |||
| Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza | <1% | 0¢ | $2.2K | |||
| Samuel Marcos Daza Taype | <1% | 0¢ | $18.1K | |||
| Segundo Valdez Zavala | <1% | 0¢ | $1.8K | |||
| Samir Frank Quispe Caballero | <1% | 0¢ | $2.1K | |||
| Yehude Simón Munaro | <1% | 0¢ | $10.2K | |||
| Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué | <1% | 0¢ | $12.3K | |||
| Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega | <1% | 0¢ | $3.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Lima Mayoral, Rafael López Aliaga, Francis James Allison Oyague
Search ›-
López Aliaga Claims 50,000 Lead in Lima VoteRafael López Aliaga, the conservative former mayor of Lima, says his own recount of the vote-tally sheets gives him a lead of about 50,000 votes in the race to run Peru’s capital again, Panamericana television reported on Monday 19 October… -
Peru Lima Mayor Count Reaches 95.4%The Lima mayor count reached 95.4% of tally sheets on Saturday 17 October 2026, with the Renovación Popular list still ahead. Its lead over Avanza País is about one percentage point, and 1,202 disputed sheets remain unresolved. Lima is…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions