Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Polymarket Elections › Around the world For Sun 7:59 PM ET · $105K today · $2M traded · $41K at stake · prices read 7 min ago

The odds

>99%Iotova <10%
  • Iotova <10%>99%▲ 1
  • Iotova 40%+<1%
  • Iotova 30-40%<1%
  • Iotova 20-30%<1%
  • Iotova 10-20%<1%
  • Gyurov <10%<1%
  • Gyurov 10-20%<1%
  • Gyurov 20-30%<1%
  • Gyurov 30%+<1%

How the odds have moved

Iotova <10%: 2% on Oct 20, >99% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 20, 11 PM ETIotova <10%: 2% → 11%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Iotova <10% >99% ▲ 1 100¢ 100¢ $174K
Iotova 40%+ <1% 0¢ $304K
Iotova 30-40% <1% 0¢ $119K
Iotova 20-30% <1% 0¢ $125K
Iotova 10-20% <1% 0¢ $207K
Gyurov <10% <1% 0¢ $133K
Gyurov 10-20% <1% 0¢ $58.4K
Gyurov 20-30% <1% 0¢ $536K
Gyurov 30%+ <1% 0¢ $325K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Margin of Victory, Bulgaria Presidential

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

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