Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Polymarket Elections › Around the world For Sun 11:59 PM ET · $3.6M today · $10.3M traded · $768K at stake · prices read 22 h ago

The odds

>99%Lula da Silva <4%
  • Lula da Silva <4%>99%▲ 82
  • Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+<1%▼ 1
  • Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%<1%▼ 5
  • Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%<1%▼ 36
  • Flávio Bolsonaro <4%<1%▼ 38
  • Lula da Silva 4-8%<1%▼ 1
  • Lula da Silva 8-12%<1%
  • Lula da Silva 12%+<1%

How the odds have moved

Lula da Silva <4%: 20% on Oct 20, >99% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 25, 11 PM ETLula da Silva <4%: 17% → 99%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Lula da Silva <4% >99% ▲ 82 100¢ 100¢ $1.5M
Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+ <1% ▼ 1 0¢ $1.4M
Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% <1% ▼ 5 0¢ $1.7M
Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% <1% ▼ 36 0¢ $1.5M
Flávio Bolsonaro <4% <1% ▼ 38 0¢ $1.6M
Lula da Silva 4-8% <1% ▼ 1 0¢ $1.3M
Lula da Silva 8-12% <1% 0¢ $769K
Lula da Silva 12%+ <1% 0¢ $522K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Brazil Presidential Election Second, Margin of Victory

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

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