Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Polymarket Elections › Around the world For Sun 11:59 PM ET · $142K today · $3.4M traded · $663K at stake · prices read 5 min ago

The odds

11%Ilija Srdanović

Ilija Srdanović11%▼ 12
Aleksandar Vučić2%▲ 1
Vladan Đokić1%▼ 2
Ana Brnabić<1%
Ivica Dačić<1%
Miloš Vučević<1%
Đuro Macut<1%
Stefan Krkobabić<1%
Branimir Jovanović<1%
Dragan Đilas<1%

How the odds have moved

Ilija Srdanović: 22% on Oct 20, 11% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 25, 11 PM ETIlija Srdanović: 9% → 25%
- Serbian leader Aleksandar Vučić concedes defeat in fiercely contested parliamentary electionthe Guardian · 41 h ago
- Aleksandar Vucic concedes defeat in Serbia's parliamentary election, marking political shiftCBS News · 41 h ago
- Know How Serbia’s Student Protest Movement Ended Aleksandar Vučić’s RuleOutlook India · 34 h ago

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Ilija Srdanović	11%	▼ 12	10¢	12¢	$8.33	$479K
Aleksandar Vučić	2%	▲ 1	2¢	2¢	$47.62	$2.3M
Vladan Đokić	1%	▼ 2	1¢	2¢	$55.56	$83.5K
Ana Brnabić	<1%		0¢	1¢		$85.1K
Ivica Dačić	<1%		0¢	0¢		$84.8K
Miloš Vučević	<1%			0¢		$20.8K
Đuro Macut	<1%			0¢		$25.3K
Stefan Krkobabić	<1%			0¢		$52.8K
Branimir Jovanović	<1%			0¢		$16.5K
Dragan Đilas	<1%			0¢		$35.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Prime Minister of Serbia, Ilija Srdanović, Aleksandar Vučić

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Aleksandar Vucic concedes defeat in Serbia's parliamentary election, marking political shiftCBS News · 41 h agoOctober 25, 2026 / 5:30 PM EDT / AP The long-serving strongman leader of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, conceded defeat on Sunday in an election that pitted him and his right-wing party against a diverse student-led opposition movement that…
Serbian leader Aleksandar Vučić concedes defeat in fiercely contested parliamentary electionthe Guardian · 41 h agoVučić’s 12-year reign looks to have been ended by record turnout of voters in election provoked by student-led protests Serbia’s veteran leader Aleksandar Vučić has conceded defeat to the student movement, ushering in a seismic political…
Serbia votes as students seek to unseat Aleksandar Vucic in snap electionNBC News · 2 days agoBELGRADE — Serbia is voting on Sunday as a mass student protest movement seeks to unseat long-time populist leader Aleksandar Vucic in the biggest challenge to his rule for more than a decade. The snap parliamentary elections, called by…
Putin’s Curse? Why Aleksandar Vucic May Have Lost Serbia’s Election Because Of Russian PresidentNews18 · 33 h agoRussian President Vladimir Putin’s backing could not shield Serbian leader Aleksandar Vucic from a historic electoral defeat, as a student-led opposition movement emerged victorious in the country’s snap parliamentary election after nearly…
Serbia's Aleksandar Vucic concedes defeat as student movement wins election amid protests@firstpost · 37 h agoSerbia's student-led movement declared victory in parliamentary elections Sunday ending 14 years in power for Aleksandar Vucic's right-wing populist party. Serbia's long-serving leader, Aleksandar VuÄiÄ, conceded defeat on Sunday…
Serbia’s strongman leader Aleksandar Vucic concedes defeat to student-led movementThe Irish Times · 38 h agoThe long-serving strongman leader of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, conceded defeat on Sunday in an election that pitted him and his right-wing party against a diverse student-led opposition movement that spent two years protesting his…
Know How Serbia’s Student Protest Movement Ended Aleksandar Vučić’s RuleOutlook India · 34 h agoSerbia’s student-led Student List has defeated Aleksandar Vučić in snap parliamentary elections after months of protests sparked by a deadly railway station collapse in Novi Sad in 2024 Student List defeats Vučić after protests over 16…
Serbians celebrate as leader Aleksandar Vučić concedes defeat to student-led protest movementThe i Paper · 40 h agoThe snap elections came after almost two years of demonstrations against corruption ⁠and creeping authoritarianism Serbia’s longstanding leader Aleksandar Vučić conceded defeat to protest movement Student List in a historic election on…
Serbia Election Shock As Aleksandar Vučić Concedes Defeat After Student-Led Opposition Secures 52% Votes, Set To Win Up To 140 Parliamentary Seats | VideoFree Press Journal · 34 h agoBelgrade: In a significant political transition, the long-serving strongman leader of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić has conceded defeat in the national parliamentary elections, announcing that the opposition "Student List" has secured an…
Aleksandar Vucic defeated in Serbia election as student protest movement claims historic winThe Independent · 30 h agoSerbia’s long-standing strongman leader, Aleksandar Vucic, admitted defeat on Sunday following an election against a broad, student-led opposition movement that had demonstrated against his government for two years. This represents a major…
Serbia’s former President Aleksandar Vučić concedes defeat in parliamentary election to student-led oppositionMeduza · 34 h agoFormer Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić conceded defeat in the October 25 snap parliamentary election. “We don’t have the final results yet. Based on a stratified sample, it’s clear that we lost this election. The student-blockader list…
Serbia Election 2026: Has Aleksandar Vucic Lost Power After Nearly Two Years of Protests? Student List Projected to Win 135-140 Seats in 250-Member ParliamentThe Sunday Guardian · 31 h agoSerbia’s student-led opposition movement is projected to secure a commanding majority in parliament after longtime political leader Aleksandar Vucic acknowledged his electoral defeat, following nearly two years of anti-corruption protests…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

MeasuredOct 25, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Trading closesOct 28, 2026 12:12 AM ET

Traded$3.4M

Today$142K

This week$1.9M

At stake$663K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official inform

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions