Brazil Presidential Election

Polymarket Elections › Around the world Closed, awaiting its result Closed Sun 11:59 PM ET · $52.2M today · $249M traded · $21.6M at stake

The last odds before it closed

>99%Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva>99%▲ 79
Flávio Bolsonaro<1%▼ 80

How the odds have moved

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 23% on Oct 20, >99% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 25, 11 PM ETLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 20% → >99%
- Brazil's presidential runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, in photosSFGATE · 25 h ago
- Flávio Bolsonaro calls for elections to be annulledBBC News · 14 h ago
- Brazil election: President Lula da Silva beats Flavio BolsonaroBBC Newsround · 15 h ago

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Traded
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva	>99%	▲ 79	100¢	100¢	$48.3M
Flávio Bolsonaro	<1%	▼ 80		0¢	$62.1M
Tarcisio de Freitas	<1%			0¢	$15M
Jair Bolsonaro	<1%			0¢	$7.6M
Fernando Haddad	<1%			0¢	$7.7M
Michelle Bolsonaro	<1%			0¢	$10.4M
Eduardo Bolsonaro	<1%			0¢	$10.5M
Ratinho Júnior	<1%			0¢	$10.5M
Renan Santos	<1%			0¢	$17.1M
Ronaldo Caiado	<1%			0¢	$7.8M
Romeu Zema	<1%			0¢	$7.7M
Camilo Santana	<1%			0¢	$5.6M
Geraldo Alckmin	<1%			0¢	$9.4M
Eduardo Leite	<1%			0¢	$8M
Aldo Rebelo	<1%			0¢	$5M
Tereza Cristina	<1%			0¢	$4.1M
Helder Barbalho	<1%			0¢	$2.4M
Pablo Marçal	<1%			0¢	$4M
Augusto Cury	<1%			0¢	$5.5M

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Brazil Presidential, Flávio Bolsonaro

Search ›

Brazil election: President Lula da Silva beats Flavio BolsonaroBBC Newsround · 15 h agoPresident Lula celebrates his victory Brazil - it's the largest country in the continent of South America. It is home to the Amazon rainforest - the so-called 'lungs of the world', because of the role it plays in absorbing carbon dioxide…
Flávio Bolsonaro calls for elections to be annulledBBC News · 14 h agoFollow our live coverage of the Brazilian election. Flávio Bolsonaro calls for elections to be annulled. Video, 00:00:33Flávio Bolsonaro calls for elections to be annulled Up Next. Fireworks and tear gas as protesters and riot police clash…
Watch: How President Lula turned it around to beat Flávio Bolsonarobbc.com · 15 h agoBrazil's left-wing President has been elected for a fourth term after narrowly beating right-wing Flávio Bolsonaro in a knife-edge vote. BBC's correspondent Ione Wells is in Brasília to explain the election results. The mother of two…
Brazil runoff live updates: polls set to close as Flávio Bolsonaro narrowly leads Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in race for presidencythe Guardian · 22 h agoThundering to a crowd of thousands of far-right supporters in São Paulo on 7 September, Brazil’s Independence Day, the senator Flávio Bolsonaro focused less on his opponent in the presidential election, the leftist president Luiz Inácio…
Lula wins fourth term as Brazil’s president over Flávio Bolsonarothe Guardian · 17 h agoLeftist incumbent Lula stages historic comeback weeks after narrowly losing first round of election to Bolsonaro Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the Brazilian president, has staged a dramatic election fightback, defeating his far-right…
Flavio Bolsonaro Takes Lead Over Communist Lula in Brazilian Presidential Election as Election Time Is Extended by Lula JusticeThe Gateway Pundit · 18 h agoThe Brazilian Presidential Election is being held today in one of Latin America’s few remaining leftist controlled countries. Socialist Lula da Silva is locked in a tight race with Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former persecuted president…
Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro in neck-to-neck contest as counting continues in Brazil presidential electionsHindustan Times · 18 h agoBrazilian right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro overtook President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brazil's tightly contested presidential runoff on Sunday evening, as results trickled in after a Supreme Court-mandated pause in vote counting…
Flavio Bolsonaro Rejects Lula’s Election Victory, Demands Annulment Of Brazil Presidential Poll Results OverFree Press Journal · 15 h agoFlavio Bolsonaro refused to concede defeat to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who won by nearly 4.4 million votes. Bolsonaro called for the election results to be annulled, questioning an extension of voting hours ordered by…
Brazil votes in tense presidential runoff between Lula and Flávio BolsonaroCBS News · 22 h agoOctober 25, 2026 / 3:52 PM EDT / AP Brazilians are voting in Sunday's polarizing presidential runoff between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro, a contest that will determine whether the U.S. will…
Brazil's presidential runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, in photosSFGATE · 25 h agoBrazilians vote in a closely contested presidential runoff between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, seeking a fourth term, and Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The... Brazilians vote in a closely contested…
Brazil elections: Voters choosing between Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaBBC News · 33 h agoBrazilians are voting to choose their new president in a closely fought run-off election - polls will close at 17:00 local time (20:00 GMT) It is the second round of voting after right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro won the first round…
Flavio Bolsonaro refuses to concede Brazil election, vows legal challengeIsrael National News · 15 h agoFlavio Bolsonaro, who lost the Brazilian presidential runoff to incumbent president Lula da Silva, stated that he refused to accept the results of the election.“It is impossible to recognize the election results in the context of how these…

Related markets

All around the world ›

Elections › Around the world

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

>99%Student List – Students Win

Student List – Students Win>99%▲ 73
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia<1%▼ 74
Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability!<1%

7 more

Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP)<1%
Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor<1%
Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification<1%
Russian Party – Serbia in BRICS – Slobodan Nikolić<1%
Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović<1%
European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš<1%
SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak<1%

Elections › Around the world

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

>99%Lula da Silva <4%

Lula da Silva <4%>99%▲ 82
Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+<1%▼ 1
Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%<1%▼ 5

5 more

Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%<1%▼ 36
Flávio Bolsonaro <4%<1%▼ 38
Lula da Silva 4-8%<1%▼ 1
Lula da Silva 8-12%<1%
Lula da Silva 12%+<1%

Elections › Around the world

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

70%Yashar

Yashar70%
Likud29%
Together<1%

3 more

Shas<1%
The Democrats<1%
Otzma Yehudit<1%

Elections › Around the world

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

18%Ilija Srdanović

Ilija Srdanović18%▲ 6
Vladan Đokić3%▲ 2
Aleksandar Vučić2%▼ 47

7 more

Ivica Dačić<1%▼ 2
Ana Brnabić<1%
Miloš Vučević<1%
Đuro Macut<1%
Stefan Krkobabić<1%
Branimir Jovanović<1%
Dragan Đilas<1%

Elections › Around the world

Next French Presidential Election

44%Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen44%
Édouard Philippe16%▲ 1
David Lisnard14%

42 more

Jean-Luc Mélenchon10%▼ 1
Raphaël Glucksmann4%▲ 1
François Hollande3%▲ 1
Éric Zemmour1%
Bruno Retailleau1%
Sarah Knafo1%
Gabriel Attal1%
Jordan Bardella1%
Dominique de Villepin1%
Sébastien Lecornu<1%
Christine Lagarde<1%
Xavier Bertrand<1%
Marion Maréchal<1%
François Ruffin<1%
Ségolène Royal<1%
François Asselineau<1%
Jean Castex<1%
Natacha Polony<1%
Laurent Wauquiez<1%
Marine Tondelier<1%
Fabien Roussel<1%
Olivier Faure<1%
Clémentine Autain<1%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan<1%
Michel Barnier<1%
Valérie Pécresse<1%
François Bayrou<1%
Élisabeth Borne<1%
Yaël Braun-Pivet<1%
Gérald Darmanin<1%
Carole Delga<1%
Bernard Cazeneuve<1%
Manuel Bompard<1%
Mathilde Panot<1%
Juan Branco<1%
Clémence Guetté<1%
Karim Bouamrane<1%
Lucie Castets<1%
Yannick Jadot<1%
François Baroin<1%
Anasse Kazib<1%
Sylvain Durif<1%

Elections › Around the world

Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

99%Iotova <10%

Iotova <10%99%▲ 23
Iotova 40%+<1%▼ 1
Iotova 10-20%<1%▼ 7

6 more

Gyurov 20-30%<1%▼ 1
Iotova 30-40%<1%▼ 3
Gyurov 30%+<1%▼ 1
Iotova 20-30%<1%▼ 1
Gyurov <10%<1%▼ 11
Gyurov 10-20%<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closedOct 25, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$249M

Today$52.2M

This week$60.1M

At stake$21.6M

In the news49 headlines today, 239 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions