US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
67%October 22
- October 2267%
- October 2467%
- October 2867%▲ 7
6 more
- October 3167%▲ 3
- November 867%▲ 5
- November 1567%▲ 2
- November 2267%▲ 2
- November 3067%▲ 1
- December 3167%▲ 1
Install
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
The odds
12%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 14% on Oct 20, 12% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | 12¢ | 13¢ | $7.75 | $625K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Iran
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Iran DOUBLING DOWN on nuclear ambitions: ReportFox News senior strategic analyst Jack Keane discusses reports that Iran is rebuilding its nuclear program during 'Sunday Morning Futures.' ... Iran DOUBLING DOWN on nuclear ambitions: Report Fox News senior strategic analyst Jack Keane… -
Trump RIPS Obama: Iran thought he was a SUCKER!President Donald Trump sharply criticized Barack Obama's previous JCPOA deal with Iran, calling it the 'worst and dumbest deal' he has ever seen. Trump RIPS Obama: Iran thought he was a SUCKER! President Donald Trump sharply criticized… -
New threats could push US and Iran toward warThe US director of national intelligence warned that Iran was in the “advanced stages” of planning attacks against American officials abroad, prompting personnel evacuations and heightening the risk of a return to all-out war. US President… -
Iran ramping up efforts to target Americans, intelligence warns‘The Big Weekend Show’ co-hosts discuss President Donald Trump’s options for dealing with Iran as intelligence warns the regime may be ramping up efforts to target Americans. Iran ramping up efforts to target Americans, intelligence warns… -
Iran may be rebuilding nuclear sites, satellite images revealFox News senior strategic analyst Jack Keane discusses reports of Iran rebuilding its nuclear facilities, President Donald Trump's options for confronting Tehran and more. Iran may be rebuilding nuclear sites, satellite images reveal Fox… -
A Netanyahu defeat would make Iran war harder for the U.S.Dania Arayssi, Senior Analyst at New Lines Institute explains how a Netanyahu election loss could significantly complicate a U.S. intervention in Iran, as Washington relies heavily on Israeli intelligence and partnership to avoid entering… -
US has plans for major Iran strikes if Trump choosesUS forces in the Middle East are prepared to launch new, potentially major, military operations against Iran “within 96 hours of receiving” an order from President Donald Trump, according to two US officials. “It will be a big effort,” one… -
US intel warns Iran is planning lethal plots against AmericansLexington Institute vice president Rebecca Grant and national security strategist Jake Sotiriadis join ‘Fox News Live’ to discuss warnings that Iran is in advanced stages of planning lethal plots against Americans. US intel warns Iran is… -
Forty Iranian sailors rescued off Sri Lanka coast after medical emergenciesSri Lanka's foreign ministry says it has coordinated efforts to treat and repatriate 40 Iranian sailors suffering from unspecified medical emergencies in international waters off the island's southeastern coast. Ministry spokesperson… -
Trump weighing options on Iran: Make a deal or finish them off‘The Big Weekend Show’ co-hosts discuss President Donald Trump’s options for dealing with Iran as intelligence warns the regime may be ramping up efforts to target Americans. Trump weighing options on Iran: Make a deal or finish them off… -
How the Iran war is influencing voters in the U.S. and IsraelNPR's Ayesha Rascoe speaks with Middle East Institute senior fellow Natan Sachs about striking Iran, developments in the West Bank, and elections in Israel and the U.S. How the Iran war is influencing voters in the U.S. and Israel NPR's… -
Latest news on the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran — stories, videos, latest coveragePresident Trump said Iran was trying to drive up oil prices before the midterms by lying about ships hitting mines or being struck by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz. Experts tell CBS News geography, interceptor shortages and evolving…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions