Iran invades Kuwait by...?

Polymarket World › Middle East Closes Dec 31 · $123 today · $1.1M traded · $11K at stake · prices read 34 min ago

The odds

3%December 31

October 312%▼ 1
December 313%▼ 3

How the odds have moved

October 31: 1% on Oct 20, 2% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
July 31	<1%			0¢		$244K
August 31	<1%			0¢		$848K
October 31	2%	▼ 1	1¢	3¢	$32.26	$15.7K
December 31	3%	▼ 3	2¢	3¢	$34.48	$5K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Iran, Kuwait

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Caryle Murphy, who won the Pulitzer Prize reporting from Kuwait, dies at 79The Washington Post · 4 days agoThe Washington Post A longtime Washington Post reporter and correspondent, Ms. Murphy was one of the only Western journalists to stay in Kuwait after the Iraqi invasion in 1990. Caryle Murphy, a former Washington Post correspondent whose…
Iran is not bowing to pressureThe Washington Post · 3 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Reuel Marc Gerecht is…
'Invade UAE, Kuwait...': Iran Threatens Ground Invasion As Trump & Netanyahu Plan Fresh Strikes@firstpost · 4 days agoEurope Once Warned The World. Now The Global South Issues Travel Warnings As Riots Rage | Vantage Delhi Air Pollution Returns with a Vengeance: GRAP-1 Curbs to Counter 'Poor' Air Quality | Vantage Morocco’s First Female PM Fatima Mansouri…
Kuwait stresses international justice, condemns Iranian aggression at UNKuwait Times · 4 days agoNEW YORK: Kuwait has stressed the importance of strengthening the complementarity between international justice mechanisms and national judicial systems, saying... Kuwait stresses international justice, condemns Iranian aggression at UN…
Kuwait Defense Minister Meets Kuwait's Ambassador in Washingtonarabtimes · 3 days agoKUWAIT CITY, Oct 23: Kuwait’s Minister of Defense Sheikh Abdullah Ali Abdullah Al-Salem Al-Sabah met with Kuwait’s Ambassador to the United States Sheikha Al-Zain Sabah Al-Sabah at the Kuwaiti Embassy in Washington. During the meeting, the…
Beyond Deterrence: Bringing Iran, Iraq And Kuwait Into The Mecca Pact’s Regional Security Framework – OpEdEurasia Review · 3 days agoBy Dr. Rashed M. Aba-Namay The Gulf cannot achieve lasting stability through military deterrence alone. A wider framework of reciprocal non-aggression and mutual reconstruction could prevent regional states from being drawn into a…
Kuwait Raises Oil Output Above 2 Mmbbl/d Amid Iran War@EgyptOilandGas · 4 days agoKuwait has raised oil production to more than 2 million barrels per day (mmbbl/d) after output fell to nearly zero at the height of the Iran war, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) CEO Sheikh Nawaf Al-Sabah said in an interview with…
Trump’s Iran sanctions run into limitssemafor.com · 3 days agoThe Trump administration is steadily ratcheting up pressure on Iran with sanctions, but experts and former officials say the penalties thus far are having a limited effect on the Islamic Republic’s willingness to negotiate. Nate Swanson…
US Intel warns Iran boosting efforts to target Americans in MideastNew York Post · 43 h agoIran has ramped up efforts to target Americans overseas, with lethal plots reaching “advanced stages” as the Trump administration weighs renewed military strikes against Tehran, new intelligence is warning. Director of National…
Iran has "increased efforts to target U.S. personnel," intel chief warnsCBS News · 2 days agoOctober 23, 2026 / 11:13 PM EDT / CBS News Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton warned Friday that Iran has "substantially increased efforts to target U.S. personnel" abroad, with plots to kill Americans reaching "advanced stages"…
Iran war fever is rising again. The battlespace has changed.The Washington Post · 3 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. War fever is spiking…
U.S. ambassador to U.N. says Iran war could last another yearCBS News · 2 days agoCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Waltz says Iran war…

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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$1.1M

Today$123

This week$2.3K

At stake$11K

In the news353 headlines today, 4,559 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian military forces enter Kuwait by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET in a military operation that establishes control over any portion of Kuwait territory. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Iranian military operation which remains on the ground inside the territory of Kuwait for less than 48 hours will not qualify. Mere presence of Iranian military forces within Kuwait will not alone qualify, even if for longer than 48 hours. A consensus of credible reporting must demonstrate that such presence is or was part of a military operation which established control over a portion of Kuwait. Only the entry of Iranian military forces into the ter

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions