OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
48%December 31, 2027
- December 31, 202613%▼ 1
- December 31, 202748%▼ 8
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How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?
The odds
13.7median
935
Median 13.7Middle half 12.8 – 14.6
How the odds have moved
Median: 13.6 on Oct 20, 13.7 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <12 | 4% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $15.87 | $42.1K | |
| 12-15 | 83% | ▼ 1 | 78¢ | 81¢ | $1.23 | $63K |
| 16-19 | 10% | ▼ 3 | 9¢ | 11¢ | $9.35 | $48.7K |
| 20-23 | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $35.71 | $24K | |
| 24-27 | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $90.91 | $19.1K | |
| 28-31 | <1% | 0¢ | $9.3K | |||
| 32+ | <1% | 0¢ | $6.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Waymo
Search ›-
Elon Musk’s Tesla eyes transportation ‘domination’ as Cybercab expansion heats up competition with WaymoElon Musk’s Tesla is gearing up to expand its gold-colored Cybercab robotaxi service beyond Austin, Tex., next month, with an exec saying the automaker is planning transportation “domination.” The electric car giant plans to deploy its… -
Waymo Robotaxis Now Pick Up at the Las Vegas Airport—but Not Everyone Can Ride YetWaymo began driverless rides to and from Harry Reid International Airport in Las Vegas on Oct. 21, but for now only people who already ride with Waymo in the city can use them. Current Las Vegas riders now have airport access, and Waymo… -
Waymo Wins the Airport Curb, Tesla Hits 75% FSD Take-Up: Grayson Brulte's Robotaxi Field NotesThe hosts did not get this from a press release. Brulte timed the walk from the terminal door to the Waymo pickup at Nashville's BNA: 2 minutes 20 seconds. Waymo also holds airport access at Las Vegas's Harry Reid, and delivery of that… -
Waymo starts offering rides at the Las Vegas airportBuy One Founder Summit Ticket, Get a Second for Free. Register now. Waymo is now shuttling customers to and from the Harry Reid International Airport in Las Vegas, with pickups and dropoffs happening at dedicated “autonomous vehicle zones”… -
Lyft, Waymo Partner to Roll Out Robotaxi Service in NashvillePublished on 09/09/2026 at 07:18 am EDT - Modified on 09/09/2026 at 07:23 am EDT Lyft is teaming up with Alphabet's Waymo, now offering the company's autonomous ride-hailing services in Nashville, Tenn. The ride-hailing company said… -
Waymo Keeps Importing Chinese Zeekr Robotaxis as a Senate Ban LoomsWaymo has shipped more than 3,200 Chinese-built Zeekr vehicles through the Port of Los Angeles since 2024, paying tariffs north of 100 percent, while Senator Bernie Moreno names the Ojai deal as the exact loophole his stalled bill targets… - Lyft, Inc. And Waymo, LLC Rides Now Available On The Lyft App In NashvillePublished on 09/09/2026 at 07:52 am EDT Many of the new hires have been former drivers on Lyft, Inc.?s network, bringing real-world experience in rider needs and service expectations. Lyft Is Transforming Into a Global Brand, CEO Says…
- Is Waymo bringing driverless ride-hailing service to Ottawa?Waymo recently announced its plan to bring driverless ride-hailing to Toronto in 2028 — the company is also lobbying Ottawa officials. Waymo, the company bringing its driverless ride-hailing service to Toronto, is lobbying City Hall…
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Waymo Was No Cheaper Than Uber in This San Antonio Airport Test (But at Least You Don't Have to Tip)A driverless car offered no fare savings over Uber in a San Antonio airport test. In an Oct. 15 comparison by KSAT, both apps showed prices of about $24 for a ride from the station's downtown office to San Antonio International Airport… -
Waymo Robotaxis Begin Pickups, Drop-Offs at Las Vegas AirportWaymo robotaxis will operate from dedicated AV zones at Terminals 1 and 3 of the Harry Reid International Airport. Travelers in Las Vegas can now book Waymo robotaxis for trips to and from Harry Reid International Airport. Rides opened on… - GOLDBERG: Waymo representing a major opportunity for consumersDriverless vehicles could be in Toronto within two years Driverless vehicles could be hitting Toronto’s streets within two short years. That’s according to Waymo, an American company known for its driverless cabs. Waymo plans to start…
- Waymo to launch its robotaxi service in SpainThe driverless technology company expects its commercial service to be up and running next year. Autonomous driving technogy developer Waymo has announced it will begin offering robotaxi services in the Spanish capital of Madrid using a…
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All ai ›Which company has the best AI model end of October?
87%Google
- Google87%▲ 2
- Anthropic9%▼ 4
- OpenAI1%
18 more
- Meta<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
57%Anthropic
- Anthropic57%▲ 4
- Google32%▼ 1
- OpenAI6%
12 more
- xAI1%
- Meta1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Microsoft<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Amazon<1%
- Baidu<1%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
$2.26Thigh with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.26T.
- Reaches $1.5T96%
- Reaches $1.75T82%
- Falls to $800B4%
- Falls to $700B4%
Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
Nov 18, 2026even chance by
- October 21<1%▼ 12
- October 22<1%▼ 14
- October 24<1%▼ 1
2 more
- October 3132%▲ 1
- December 3194%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
67%No release by October 31
- No release by October 3167%▼ 3
- October 2716%▼ 1
- October 285%▼ 1
11 more
- October 295%▲ 1
- October 302%▲ 1
- October 201%▼ 12
- October 311%▲ 1
- October 19<1%▼ 2
- October 21<1%▼ 5
- October 22<1%▼ 14
- October 23<1%▼ 4
- October 24<1%
- October 25<1%▼ 1
- October 26<1%▼ 4
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions