Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Polymarket World › Middle East Closes Dec 31 · $2.6K today · $954K traded · $142K at stake · prices read just now

The odds

12%Lebanon

Lebanon12%▲ 5
Venezuela9%
Pakistan6%▲ 1
Tunisia6%
Iraq4%
Indonesia4%
Saudi Arabia4%▲ 1
Syria4%
North Korea3%
Cuba3%
Iran3%
Kuwait3%

4 more

Qatar3%
Malaysia3%
Afghanistan2%
Bangladesh1%

How the odds have moved

Lebanon: 7% on Oct 20, 12% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 26, 11 AM ETLebanon: 7% → 12%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Lebanon	12%	▲ 5	9¢	14¢	$7.14	$127K
Venezuela	9%		8¢	9¢	$11.11	$393K
Pakistan	6%	▲ 1	6¢	7¢	$14.29	$27.9K
Tunisia	6%		5¢	6¢	$16.67	$24.1K
Iraq	4%		4¢	4¢	$22.73	$17.7K
Indonesia	4%		3¢	5¢	$19.61	$30.5K
Saudi Arabia	4%	▲ 1	3¢	5¢	$20.00	$88.8K
Syria	4%		3¢	4¢	$25.00	$22.7K
North Korea	3%		3¢	3¢	$29.41	$24.5K
Cuba	3%		3¢	3¢	$29.41	$16.1K
Iran	3%		3¢	4¢	$27.03	$20.7K
Kuwait	3%		3¢	3¢	$31.25	$31.7K
Qatar	3%		3¢	3¢	$37.04	$51.6K
Malaysia	3%		3¢	3¢	$38.46	$15.2K
Afghanistan	2%		2¢	2¢	$43.48	$44.8K
Bangladesh	1%		1¢	2¢	$62.50	$17.5K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Israel, Gaza, Netanyahu

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Will Benjamin Netanyahu Win Israel Election? What Polls ShowNewsweek · 3 h agoOct 26, 2026 at 07:50 AM EDT Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will struggle to retain power, according to latest polling ahead of his first electoral test since the October 2023 Hamas-led attacks and the subsequent conflicts in…
Anti-Israel agitators smash signs of Seinfeld, NetanyahuFox News · 19 h agoA group of people protested outside Jerry Seinfeld's Washington, D.C. show. They chanted, used vulgar language and violently smashed posters of the comedian and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu. Anti-Israel agitators smash signs of Seinfeld…
Israeli election to test Benjamin Netanyahu's ability to hold powerCBS News · 26 h agoCBS News Bay Area Morning Edition Weekend 6am WBZ This Morning 8am CBS Colorado Mornings Weekend CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 6am CBS Miami News Sunday Morning CBS News New York Sunday 8am KDKA News This Morning Sunday 8am
Israel votes: Netanyahu’s future on the line – Full Story podcastthe Guardian · 26 h agoIsraeli citizens are about to vote in what’s being seen as elections that are almost existential when it comes to the future identity of the country. That’s because since the October 7 attack by Hamas in which about 1,200 Israelis were…
Israel's Central Bank Rebukes Netanyahu Plan to Use Crypto to Dodge SanctionsDecrypt · 3 h agoIsrael's central bank has rejected Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's suggestion that cryptocurrency could help the country get around potential international sanctions, in a rare public rebuke days before Tuesday's national election…
Thousands rally against Netanyahu in Tel Aviv ahead of Israeli elections – videothe Guardian · 24 h agoThousands of people gathered in Tel Aviv on Saturday in a final protest against the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and his government ahead of what has been described as the most consequential election in the country's…
Israelis set to decide whether Netanyahu still deserves to lead after Oct. 7 attacksNew York Post · 6 h agoTEL AVIV — Should Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu be punished for the Oct. 7, 2023 terrorist attack — or is he, in fact, the strongest person to protect the Jewish state during its multi-front war? That is perhaps the central issue when…
This center-right former general could unseat Netanyahu as Prime Minister in IsraelNPR · 18 h agoA former Israeli general is the main center-right challenger hoping to unseat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israeli elections this week. This center-right former general could unseat Netanyahu as Prime Minister in Israel A former…
What to know about the Israeli elections as Netanyahu faces a battle for survivalNBC News · 4 h agoMorning Rundown: Israel’s first election since Oct. 7 attacks, key midterm ballot measures to watch, and Chris Brown sentenced over London nightclub brawl TEL AVIV — After three years of navigating war, crisis and global outcry, Israeli…
The Stakes for Netanyahu in Tuesday’s Israeli ElectionFox News · 44 h agoPaul Gigot interviews ‘In the War Room’ Co-Author Elliot Kaufman The Stakes for Netanyahu in Tuesday’s Israeli Election Paul Gigot interviews ‘In the War Room’ Co-Author Elliot Kaufman
Israel’s furious Arab parties could oust Netanyahu — if the opposition will break an election promiseNew York Post · 5 h agoIsraeli-Arabs could sway the balance of power in Israel’s general elections next week as the country’s two major parties are predicted to fall short of a majority in the Knesset. Nearly all of Israel’s polls ahead of Tuesday’s election…
American Jews who fled to Israel over rising antisemitism could prove decisive for Netanyahu’s futureNew York Post · 5 h agoJERUSALEM — Thousands of Americans Jews who fled to Israel amid rising antisemitism in the US could be pivotal in Tuesday’s national election — and most of them appear to be breaking for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, observers say. An…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$954K

Today$2.6K

This week$25.7K

At stake$142K

In the news474 headlines today, 4,997 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions