Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?

Polymarket Elections Closes Nov 3 · $1.2K today · $34.6K traded · $9.3K at stake · prices read 10 min ago

The odds

52%chance▼ 2

How the odds have moved

Yes: 56% on Oct 20, 52% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Yes	52%	▼ 2	50¢	53¢	$1.89	$34.6K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Democrats

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Exclusive / Democrats see Trump ‘rescue mission’ in Mississippisemafor.com · 14 h agoBoth parties remain skeptical that Democrats can win Mississippi’s Senate race, but there are signs it’s competitive. Some Democrats are trying to temper soaring expectations in the battle for the Senate â but they also canât help but…
Electric vehicle tax credits losing their luster for DemocratsPOLITICO · 14 h agoPresident Donald Trump’s attacks on Biden-era electric vehicle policy is hampering Democrats’ ambitions to bring back buyer incentives. Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) says Democrats need to weigh the future of EV tax credits. | Francis…
Discontent with Trump buoys Democrats in Ohio: ‘People are disgusted by the corruption’the Guardian · 11 h agoIn a reliably red state, candidates say dissatisfied voters tell them they’re planning to vote Democrat for the first time Democrat Kim McCarthy is canvassing in a middle-class Ohio neighborhood of four-bedroom, three-bathroom homes. There…
If Democrats win big, will they learn the right lessons from their victory?the Guardian · 12 h agoNo election outcome ever interprets itself. So how will Democrats interpret these results once they are known? Whichever metaphor one prefers – landslide, earthquake, wave – it seems increasingly like the Democrats can expect a significant…
Obama campaigns for Democrats, and France demonstrations continue: Weekend RundownNBC News · 24 h agoFormer President Barack Obama, appearing in Ohio on Saturday at his first campaign rally of this fall’s midterm elections, called President Donald Trump an agent of “chaos and cruelty” and a man of broken promises. Obama’s visit was aimed…
Elise Stefanik accuses Mike Johnson of "getting rolled" by Democrats and lying about defense bill provisionCBS News · 13 h agoUpdated on: December 3, 2025 / 9:58 AM EST / CBS News Washington — GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York lashed out at House Speaker Mike Johnson this week, accusing him of blocking a provision that would require the FBI to notify Congress…
Democrats scheme to turn the US into France — riots and allNew York Post · 25 h ago“This is what happens when nations let wealth and power accumulate in the hands of a few,” says prospective 2028 presidential candidate Rep. Ro Khanna about the mass rioting and social unrest unfolding in France. As with most issues, the…
Why Democrats see a path to victory in Mississippi midterm electioncnn.com · 26 h agoCNN National Political Writer Fredreka Schouten joins Fredricka Whitfield to break down why Democrat Scott Colom is hopeful that he can unseat incumbent Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith. Despite Donald Trump winning the state by 23…
Kamala Harris says Democrats have ‘been pissed’ for the last year and a halfFox News · 26 h agoFox News correspondent CB Cotton reports on former Vice President Kamala Harris’ comments while campaigning for New Hampshire Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Chris Pappas on ‘Fox Report.’ ... Kamala Harris says Democrats have ‘been pissed’…
MAPPED: The states Trump and top Democrats are targeting before Election DayFox News · 28 h agoVoters at the State Fair discuss whether Talarico can defeat Ken Paxton, turn Texas blue and end Democrats’ decadeslong statewide losing streak. With just nine days until Election Day, both parties are making a final push to shape the…
CBS News Battleground Tracker favors Democrats but turnout questions remainCBS News · 31 h agoWith the midterm elections less than 10 days away, CBS News executive director of elections and surveys Anthony Salvanto dives into the latest Battleground Tracker, which favors Democrats but he says "turnout is a big factor." New CBS News…
BBC Audio | Global News Podcast | The Global Story: They were loyal Democrats. Then came GazaBBC News · 26 h agoToday on the show, The Global Story’s Asma Khalid shares her reporting from Michigan, where a debate among Democrats over the conflict in the Middle East has become a touchstone issue, especially ... The Global Story: They were loyal…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesNov 3, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$34.6K

Today$1.2K

This week$5K

At stake$9.3K

In the news220 headlines today, 2,400 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all re

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions