Will Iran target an Arab country by...?

Polymarket World › Middle East Closes Sat 11:59 PM ET · $8.4K today · $20.4K traded · $5.6K at stake · prices read 6 days ago

The odds

99%October 22

October 2299%▲ 10
October 31>99%▲ 9

How the odds have moved

October 22: 89% on Oct 20, 99% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
October 22	99%	▲ 10	98¢	100¢		$15.6K
October 31	>99%	▲ 9	99¢	100¢		$4.9K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Iran

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Iran in 'ADVANCED STAGES' of planned attacks on AmericansFox News · 10 h agoFormer Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reacts to a memo about potential Iranian attacks on Americans, the reported threats to U.S. interests abroad and the American military presence in the region. Iran in 'ADVANCED STAGES' of planned…
Andrew Harding analyzes European protests and Trump's strategy on IranFox News · 13 h agoNational security policy analyst Andrew Harding joins 'Fox & Friends First' to discuss massive protests sweeping across Europe and Trump weighing his next steps regarding the Iran deal. Andrew Harding analyzes European protests and Trump's…
A Netanyahu defeat would make Iran war harder for the U.S.CNBC · 16 h agoDania Arayssi, Senior Analyst at New Lines Institute explains how a Netanyahu election loss could significantly complicate a U.S. intervention in Iran, as Washington relies heavily on Israeli intelligence and partnership to avoid entering…
US has plans for major Iran strikes if Trump choosesCNN · 19 h agoUS forces in the Middle East are prepared to launch new, potentially major, military operations against Iran “within 96 hours of receiving” an order from President Donald Trump, according to two US officials. “It will be a big effort,” one…
Forty Iranian sailors rescued off Sri Lanka coast after medical emergenciesBBC News · 19 h agoSri Lanka's foreign ministry says it has coordinated efforts to treat and repatriate 40 Iranian sailors suffering from unspecified medical emergencies in international waters off the island's southeastern coast. Ministry spokesperson…
Delegations meet in Iran with Middle East on edge over potential for renewed fightingNew York Post · 13 h agoThe talks come as many in Iran are girding themselves for the possible return to a return to all-out war, as Israeli and American leaders have been sharpening their threats ahead of pending elections in both countries, while Iranian…
New threats could push US and Iran toward warsemafor.com · 24 h agoThe US director of national intelligence warned that Iran was in the “advanced stages” of planning attacks against American officials abroad, prompting personnel evacuations and heightening the risk of a return to all-out war. US President…
Iran ramping up efforts to target Americans, intelligence warnsFox News · 24 h ago‘The Big Weekend Show’ co-hosts discuss President Donald Trump’s options for dealing with Iran as intelligence warns the regime may be ramping up efforts to target Americans. Iran ramping up efforts to target Americans, intelligence warns…
Trump says he'll soon decide whether to ‘make a deal’ with Iran or ‘finish it off'CNBC · 11 h agoU.S. President Donald Trump has said he was deciding whether to "make a deal" with Iran or "finish it off" as investors weigh heightened tensions across the Middle East. "Do I finish it off, which would be very easy to do, or do I make a…
Iran says it's prepared to go back to war amid threat from the U.S. and IsraelNPR · 14 h ago?Iran is preparing for a potential attack from the U.S. and Israel after the midterms. Iran says it's prepared to go back to war amid threat from the U.S. and Israel ?Iran is preparing for a potential attack from the U.S. and Israel after…
Iran War Updates: Tehran shrugs off Trump's attack threats, says diplomacy ongoing as oil prices stay highCBS News · 12 h agoOctober 26, 2026 / 6:45 AM EDT / CBS News What to know about the Iran war today: The price of Brent crude oil hovered around $115 a barrel early Monday after surging at the end of last week over global supply concerns linked to the ongoing…
Iran DOUBLING DOWN on nuclear ambitions: ReportFox News · 29 h agoFox News senior strategic analyst Jack Keane discusses reports that Iran is rebuilding its nuclear program during 'Sunday Morning Futures.' ... Iran DOUBLING DOWN on nuclear ambitions: Report Fox News senior strategic analyst Jack Keane…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesOct 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$20.4K

Today$8.4K

This week$20.4K

At stake$5.6K

In the news472 headlines today, 4,452 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Qualifying Arab countries are as follows: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at a qualifying Arab country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A sur

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions