Fed Decision in October?
94%No change
- No change94%
- 25 bps increase6%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
Install
What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on December 31?
The odds
$321,971median
$298,000$331,000
Median $321,971Middle half $318,201 – $325,717
How the odds have moved
Median: $321,905 on Oct 20, $321,971 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <$303K | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $29.41 | $2.2K | |
| $303K - $308K | 6% | ▼ 2 | 5¢ | 7¢ | $13.89 | $4.5K |
| $308K - $313K | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.41 | $831 | |
| $313K - $318K | 13% | ▼ 1 | 12¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | $2.2K |
| $318K - $323K | 33% | ▼ 1 | 34¢ | 36¢ | $2.75 | $6K |
| $323K - $327K | 27% | ▲ 2 | 28¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | $3.7K |
| $327K+ | 16% | ▼ 2 | 16¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | $4.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Chicago Metro
Search ›-
Jobless rate drops to lowest level in 2027Evanston’s unemployment rate fell to its lowest level this year, going down to 4.3% in September, according to data released Thursday by the Illinois Department of Employment Security, The local jobless rate dropped more than a full… -
Of Notoriety: Former Trib columnist Kass closing website, comic Tom Arnold and ‘Christmas Story’ bulliesWhen I spoke last month at the Flossmoor Book Club’s 90th Anniversary Reception, the topic I was asked to speak about was the long-lasting lineage of Chicago newspaper columnists. Having been born in 1970, my favorite categories for… -
Chicago Real Estate Broker Mark Raffaelli Passes $200 Million in Career SalesMark Raffaelli, a broker with Jameson Sotheby's International Realty, celebrates 24 years serving Chicagoland, surpassing $200 million in career sales through referrals and repeat clients, while closing a strong third quarter amid rising… - Rising mortgage rates and home prices sidelining buyers but now is the time to purchase, report says 2026Hopeful buyers poured into open houses across the North Side over the summer. Some real estate agents reported nearly 100 people touring their listings. But Keller Williams One Chicago Realtor Tommy Choi had less than 30 people recently…
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Democratic cash starts gushing into 26th Senate District raceDemocrat Nabeela Syed and Republican Darby Hills have enjoyed strong fundraising this summer, Hills from a few deep-pocket donors and Syed from a large number of smaller $1,000- plus contributors. But what was a steady flow all summer for… -
Tire Titan Acquires 2M SF Illinois Distribution Facility In Deal For Its Decadelong HomeMichelin North America acquired its longstanding super regional distribution facility for $151M in a major industrial deal in the Chicago suburbs. The company picked up the property at 29900 S. Graaskamp Blvd. in Wilmington, Illinois, from… - Top Concerts and Live Shows: September 11–30, 2026September 2026 features 21 Chicago-area shows across clubs, theaters, and arenas, with artists either stepping up to United Center scale or anchoring major undercards. Phoebe Bridgers makes her Chicago arena debut with two nights at United…
Related markets
All economy ›Fed Decision in December?
74%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase74%▼ 1
- No change22%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase3%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
96%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)96%
- 1 (25 bps)2%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
10 more
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Fed Decision in January?
65%No change
- No change65%▼ 4
- 25 bps increase33%▲ 4
- 50+ bps increase1%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Bank of Canada Decision in October?
85%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase85%▲ 3
- No Change15%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Bank of Japan Decision in October?
98%No change
- No change98%▲ 1
- 25 bps increase1%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase1%
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions