Will Talarico and Paxton debate live by...?

Polymarket Elections Closes Sat 11:59 PM ET · $122 today · $41.2K traded · $3.5K at stake · prices read 37 min ago

The odds

4%October 31
  • October 314%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

October 31: 12% on Oct 20, 4% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 23, 11 PM ETOctober 31: 12% → <1%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

  2. Oct 20, 11 PM ETOctober 31: 12% → 22%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
October 15 <1% ▼ 4 0¢ $5.6K
October 31 4% ▼ 1 2¢ 6¢ $16.13 $35.7K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Talarico and Paxton

Search ›

Related markets

All elections ›
Elections › Around the world

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

>99%Student List – Students Win
  • Student List – Students Win>99%▲ 73
  • Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia<1%▼ 74
  • Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability!<1%
7 more
  • Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP)<1%
  • Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor<1%
  • Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification<1%
  • Russian Party – Serbia in BRICS – Slobodan Nikolić<1%
  • Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović<1%
  • European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš<1%
  • SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak<1%
Elections › President 2028

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

39%J.D. Vance
  • J.D. Vance39%
  • Marco Rubio18%
  • Ron DeSantis4%
40 more
  • Tucker Carlson3%
  • Ted Cruz2%
  • Donald Trump2%
  • Donald Trump Jr.2%
  • Ivanka Trump2%
  • Thomas Massie1%
  • Brian Kemp1%
  • Elon Musk1%▲ 1
  • Glenn Youngkin<1%
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%
  • Josh Hawley<1%
  • Rand Paul<1%
  • Marjorie Taylor Greene<1%
  • Pete Hegseth<1%
  • Tom Cotton<1%
  • Greg Abbott<1%
  • Katie Britt<1%
  • Candace Owens<1%
  • Eric Trump<1%
  • Tulsi Gabbard<1%
  • Nikki Haley<1%
  • Vivek Ramaswamy<1%
  • Sarah Huckabee Sanders<1%
  • Byron Donalds<1%
  • Elise Stefanik<1%
  • Kristi Noem<1%
  • Mike Pence<1%
  • Steve Bannon<1%
  • Joe Kent<1%
  • Tim Scott<1%
  • Doug Burgum<1%
  • John N. Kennedy<1%
  • John McEntee<1%
  • Matt Gaetz<1%
  • John Thune<1%
  • Tom Brady<1%
  • Erika Kirk<1%
  • Kim Kardashian<1%
  • Mike Johnson<1%
  • Rick Scott<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions