Fed Decision in October?
95%No change
- No change95%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase5%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Install
What will be in the UK Budget?
The odds
20%Fuel duty increase
- Fuel duty increase20%▲ 3
- Wealth tax6%▲ 1
- Land value tax5%
- CGT increase2%
How the odds have moved
Fuel duty increase: 12% on Oct 20, 20% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fuel duty increase | 20% | ▲ 3 | 19¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | $5.5K |
| Wealth tax | 6% | ▲ 1 | 3¢ | 8¢ | $12.05 | $843 |
| Land value tax | 5% | 3¢ | 7¢ | $14.93 | $1.8K | |
| CGT increase | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | $11.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: UK Budget
Search ›-
UK budget set to hand English mayors new borrowing powers, growth fundingTradingView UK budget set to hand English mayors new borrowing powers, growth funding -
UK Budget Oct 28: Stamp Duty Safe, Mansion Tax Threshold DebatedStamp duty is ruled out of Wednesday's Budget, but the mansion tax threshold and CGT are in play. What homeowners and buyers should know. - UK Budget Oct 28: Stamp Duty Safe, Mansion Tax Threshold Debated Chancellor John Healey delivers… -
UK Budget 2026: HMRC’s Plan to Recover Unpaid Tax Directly from Bank Accounts – Here’s What Taxpayers Need to KnowPeople and businesses with tax liabilities need to understand how these powers work, who may be affected and what safeguards are available. The post UK Budget 2026: HMRC’s Plan to Recover Unpaid Tax Directly from Bank Accounts – Here’s… -
Seamus McElvanna: What can we expect from this upcoming Budget?QUESTION: What planning should I do right now for the UK Budget on October 28? ANSWER: There are four key things we believe individuals should consider ahead of UK Chancellor John Healy’s Budget. They are around inheritance tax (IHT)… -
Bank of Canada: Preemptive tightening focus – RBC"In our view, the case for the central bank continuing to wait on the sidelines remains compelling. The Canadian economy is improving, but still not strong. There is sufficient slack, in our view, that will slow inflation passthrough ."… -
Euro: Fiscal risks cap upside against US Dollar – BBHBrown Brothers Harriman (BBH) strategist Elias Haddad reports EUR/USD trading defensively below 1.1200 after weaker-than-expected Eurozone PMI, which still signals robust growth. Above-target inflation and resilience give the ECB room for… -
Canadian Dollar extends winning streak as Fed-BoC policy divergence comes into focusUSD/CAD has unwound roughly half of its September rally as expectations grow that the BoC could deliver its first rate hike of the year at its October 28 meeting amid heightened energy-driven inflation risks. Canada’s annual inflation rate… -
British Pound: BoE tightening expectations questioned – BBHElias Haddad at Brown Brothers Harriman notes GBP/USD is weaker on broad Dollar strength, even as UK PMI beats and supports expectations for a 25 bps BOE hike to 4.00% in November. He argues the swaps market is overpricing future… -
ICAS urges chancellor to prioritise tax certainty ahead of UK budgetAn ICAS survey showed that only 3% of its members support raising taxes on businesses or employers. Around two thirds of chartered accountants (CAs) want the UK Chancellor John Healey to focus on establishing a predictable tax environment… -
Tax loophole fears cloud UK marketplace VAT reformUK retailers warn that proposed marketplace VAT exemptions could weaken tax enforcement and reduce funding for business rates relief. UK independent retailers warn that proposed exemptions for smaller sellers and second-hand goods could… -
British Pound holds gains above 1.3400 as hot CPI data fuels BoE rate hike betsThe GBP/USD pair posts modest gains near 1.3405 during the early Asian session on Friday. The British Pound (GBP) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) as hotter UK September Consumer Price Index (CPI) data has bolstered expectations of… -
FX Daily: Defensive rotation in playIt looks like markets are going through a subtle regime shift. Higher energy prices no longer mean higher rates forever; instead, the long end is starting to express a little more fear about growth. The upcoming US midterms may also be…
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- 25 bps increase76%
- No change20%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase3%
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- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
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96%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)96%▼ 1
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
10 more
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions